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Member since: Fri Jun 7, 2019, 02:43 PM
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Journal Archives

538: What's Driving Warren's Comeback?

Sen. Elizabeth Warren overtook Sen. Bernie Sanders to claim second place in the Real Clear Politics average of national primary polls, a position she’s had for a little over a week now. It’s the first time she’s claimed that spot, apart from a one-day blip back in July.

It was just a handful of months ago that Warren was polling fifth or sixth nationally, with numbers in the mid-single digits. And following the backlash to the release of her DNA test, she seemed like a long shot.

In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses Warren’s comeback and whether she has staying power.


Biden's Polling Average down to 29%


Disclaimer: It's still 5.5 months before actual voting start.
Recently , it was notice by myself and other posters that RCP sometimes gives a candidate 1-2% higher results than a particular poll's actual number. This was observed for both Biden and Warren over recent weeks, perhaps more candidates results have errors. So far, these occasional errors seem to be on the high side, with a candidate being listed as having more support than the given poll.

The RCP Polling Averages tracker shows Biden back down to 29%. Sanders and Warren also down while lower tier candidates rebound somewhat.

Honestly, with a well known front runner polling at just a 29% AVERAGE, it seems the race for the 2020 Nomination remains wide open.

Because that is what girls do... run for President!


Sanders & Warren: their presidential bids in personal, faith-based terms

Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren framed their Democratic presidential bids in personal, faith-based terms Saturday before black millennial Christians in Georgia who could help determine which candidate becomes the leading progressive alternative to Joe Biden, the AP reports.

Sanders, the Vermont senator whose struggles with black voters helped cost him the 2016 nomination, told the Young Leaders Conference that his family history shapes his approach to President Trump's rhetoric and the rise of white nationalism in the United States. "I'm Jewish. My family came from Poland. My father's whole family was wiped out by Hitler and his white nationalism," Sanders said at the forum led by the Black Church PAC, a political action committee formed by prominent black pastors.

"We will go to war against white nationalism and racism in every aspect of our lives," Sanders said, promising to use the "bully pulpit" to unite instead of divide.

Warren, a Massachusetts senator and United Methodist, quoted her favorite biblical passage, which features Jesus instructing his followers to provide for others, including the "least of these my brethren." She said "that's about two things. Every single one of us has the Lord within us. .... Secondly, the Lord does not call on us to sit back. The Lord does not just call on us to have a good heart. The Lord calls on us to act."

Sanders and Warren are looking for ways to narrow the gap with Biden, who remains atop primary polls partly because of his standing with older black voters. Polls suggest that younger black voters, however, are far more divided in their support among the many Democratic candidates.


What kind of "human being" puts "grandmother" in quotes?!?



A racist narcissistic sociopath?

How an Outrageous NBA Transaction Supports Elizabeth Warren's Case to Be President

What did Prokhorov do to increase the value of the Nets franchise, which was based in dismal northern New Jersey when he purchased it? Well, he did almost nothing. The state and city governments of New York, though, did quite a bit:

• They acquired a bunch of private property at the convergence of three upscale Brooklyn neighborhoods via eminent domain seizure and the threat thereof.

• They bundled that land with a rail yard that New York’s Metropolitan Transit Authority sold to Prokhorov’s group for $100 million despite having internally estimated its value at $214 million.

• They spent somewhere in the neighborhood of $50 million on infrastructure projects related to the construction of Barclays Center and arranged for about $400 million in tax exemptions for it.

In other words, New York’s elected officials decided Brooklyn was a good place for a basketball team, then spent an enormous amount of taxpayer money to recruit a team to play there and to prepare a space for that team to play in. They then let a guy from Russia walk away with the $2 billion in profit that this created—profit that was basically guaranteed given that previous sales have established that it is all but impossible to lose money buying an NBA team no matter how badly you run it. (And Prokhorov did for the most part run it quite badly, with a recent uptick that took place only after he fired his initial management team, which had driven the franchise into the ground.)

What if, instead of doing this, New York had just bought a stake in the Nets itself, then sold the team after 10 years like Prokhorov did? I’ll tell you what would have happened: It would have $2 billion more than it does now, enough to, for example, cover several years’ worth of the budget shortfall that’s helping cripple New York City’s delay-ridden subway system.

As it happens, “taxpayers getting a stake in the stuff their money is used to pay for” is one of the planks in Democratic presidential contender Elizabeth Warren’s “economic patriotism” plan. Here is the relevant section:

Taxpayers should be able to capture the upside of their research investments if they result in profitable enterprises. Like any investor, taxpayers should get a return on the risky investments they are making in R&D. That can take various forms. Taxpayers can: get an equity stake in any company that relies on intellectual property these investments create; retain royalties on publicly funded innovation or a golden-share of the patent revenue; or require the companies benefitting from publicly funded R&D to reinvest profits back into domestic production, R&D, and worker training programs, rather than into stock buybacks


Democrats torch Trump failures on rural digital divide

Democrats are offering President Donald Trump's rural supporters a reason to turn against him in 2020 — his failure to bring them the high-speed internet he promised.

Several presidential candidates including Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg have rolled out proposals for tens of billions in new federal dollars to bring fast broadband service to rural America, with Warren’s $85 billion plan leading the spending pack.

They call broadband yet another example of Trump letting down people who helped send him to the White House in 2016, including people in the same farm-heavy states suffering from the president’s trade wars. Trump’s challengers also say the slow internet speeds that prevail in much of the nation are a drag on the economy and a threat to U.S. competitiveness.

“I see that the country of Iceland has all hooked up, and we’re not,” Democratic hopeful Amy Klobuchar told POLITICO when asked about Trump’s record. The Minnesota senator pledges to connect all U.S. households to broadband by 2022.

Calling out the country's "failure to invest in rural areas," Warren wrote in a blog post last week that "both corporate America and leaders in Washington have turned their backs on the people living in our rural communities and prioritized the interests of giant companies and Wall Street instead."


Most Democrats Are Excited by 'Several' 2020 Candidates

Most Democrats Are Excited by ‘Several’ 2020 Candidates – Not Just Their Top Choice

Electability matters to Democrats, but so do policies, character

With more than five months to go before the first votes are cast in the 2020 presidential election, a majority of Democratic voters who express a preference for one of the candidates (63%) say they feel excited about several of the candidates currently vying for the party’s nomination. Far fewer (35%) say they are enthused only by their first choice for the nomination.

A new survey finds that, in an open-ended question about their preferences for the party’s presidential nomination, 26% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters name Joe Biden as their first choice, 16% name Elizabeth Warren, 12% favor Bernie Sanders, while 11% back Kamala Harris and 5% favor Buttigieg.

However, a quarter of Democrats do not express a preference for the nomination, according to the new survey by Pew Research Center, conducted July 22-Aug. 4 among 4,175 adults, including 1,757 Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters.


Hmmm, 25% still undecided... only 35% say they are enthused only by their first choice...

Sounds like it is still a wide open race for the nomination, doesn't it?

"Warren's electability score has risen by 14 points since June"

Warren Chips Away at Biden's Strength as The One Who Beats Trump
By Sahil Kapur
August 17, 2019, 4:00 AM EDT

Joe Biden’s strongest selling point -- that he’s the most likely to beat Donald Trump -- is losing some of its edge, as Elizabeth Warren vaults into second place because a growing number of Democrats think she can win the general election.

In a new Economist/YouGov poll, 65% of Democratic voters said Biden would "probably beat Donald Trump" — unchanged from June. But the number saying the same thing about Warren jumped 14 points since then, to 57%, the highest of any other candidate.

In the overall race, Biden led Warren by just 1 point among Democrats in a match-up with Trump. That’s after being 16 points ahead of her in June, according to the poll.

Warren’s boost in the primary dovetails her improving head-to-head poll numbers against Trump. A Fox News survey this week found her leading Trump by 7 points nationally, after the same poll found them statistically tied in June. It also coincides with rival campaigns and party strategists beginning to explicitly challenge the notion that Biden is electable.


Warren reads letters from her 116th town hall...


Real people with real problems need real help.

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