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bluewater

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Member since: Fri Jun 7, 2019, 02:43 PM
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Poll shows Biden, Warren tied with Trump in Arizona

Former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) are statistically tied with President Trump in Arizona, a state that hasn't voted for a Democratic presidential candidate in a quarter century, according to a new poll.

The new survey conducted by OH Predictive Insights, a Phoenix-based nonpartisan pollster, shows Biden leading Trump by a 45 percent to 43 percent margin. Trump leads Warren 44 percent to 43 percent, the poll found.

Both results fall within the survey's margin of error, a sign that Trump will have to work harder to win Arizona's electoral votes than any Republican nominee this century.

The survey shows Trump running better against other potential Democratic nominees. He leads Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) 44 percent to 34 percent; he leads Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) 45 percent to 36 percent; and he leads South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D) 43 percent to 38 percent.

Trump "is in the low- to mid-40s, which I'd say is a pretty big red flag," said Mike Noble, a Republican pollster and managing partner and chief of research at OH Predictive Insights. "He's not doing himself any favors for 2020 in a state he won in 2016."

In the group's last survey, conducted in May just after Biden entered the race, Trump led every Democratic candidate except Biden by a statistically significant margin. The May survey showed Biden leading Trump 49 percent to 44 percent.

Since that last survey, Noble said, Trump's approval ratings have sagged — and they have taken his head-to-head numbers against Democrats down with them. As a consequence, Trump now appears vulnerable in a state that has rarely been competitive at the presidential level.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/458344-poll-shows-biden-warren-tied-with-trump-in-arizona

The Summer of Warren

Julia Ioffe joins Elizabeth Warren on the campaign trail, where the surging senator has spent the season overcoming her campaign's wobbly start and getting down to business—trouncing debate foes, climbing in the polls, and somehow making a slew of policy plans feel exciting. Suddenly, she's winning over Democrats by making the grandest ideas sound perfectly sensible, including her biggest pitch of all: That she's the one to beat Trump.


There is a story Warren has been telling lately, one that explains how she learned the words that have come to define her career—first as a law professor, and more recently as a politician: mortgage, foreclosure, bankruptcy. Long before she encountered them as cold legal terms, those words had a more powerful meaning as the ones whispered late at night by her parents in Oklahoma. This was after her father’s heart attack, when he’d spend long stretches out of work. The family had sold off the station wagon, but it wasn’t enough to keep the creditors at bay.

One spring day, 12-year-old Betsy found herself standing in her mother’s bedroom. “Laid out on the bed was the dress,” Warren nearly whispered to a crowd one scorching afternoon in Elkhart, Indiana. “Some of you in here know the dress,” she went on, scanning the predominantly silver-haired room. “It’s the one that only comes out for weddings, funerals, and graduations.” A faint and knowing “yeah” echoed where I sat. “And there’s my mom, and she’s in her slip and her stockinged feet, and she’s pacing and she’s crying. And she’s saying, ‘We will not lose this house. We will not lose this house. We will not lose this house.’ ” The audience was silent as she delivered the line, her voice crackling with tears.

Warren tells this story at each of her town halls, sometimes more than once a day, and every time she tells it, she is on the verge of crying. She doesn’t in the end, but people in the audience do. At every single event I attended, I saw people wiping away tears when she told the story. It was a masterful summoning of sentiment that calls to mind a method actor dredging up the same emotion in the same play, night after night, for a months-long run.

American voters demand authenticity of their candidates, despite the obvious and calculated performance of a political race. I wanted to know what happens in that moment—how does Warren manage to move a crowd to tears despite the repetition? I wanted to ask her if what I heard in her voice was real.

“It’s just Trump trying to find his way to be insulting," Warren says of the president's attacks against her. "But it’s not going to work this time around.”

“Because I’m back in that room,” she told me, her eyes suddenly brimming. “I can describe the shade of the carpet to you and the bedspread, and I’m there with my mother. And I’m not only there as the little girl standing in the doorway, I’m there in my mother’s heart.” Her voice dropped to a whisper, her eyes blinked away the extra moisture. “She was so frightened,” Warren went on, reprising the story of how her mother—who, at 50, had never worked outside the home—walked to the local Sears, got a minimum-wage job, and saved the family from foreclosure.

“I knew how scary it was by the time I was standing in that doorway,” Warren said, her voice gravelly. “I’d heard her cry night after night after night, and I think that for kids sometimes, it’s harder to hear a parent cry, knowing they won’t do it in front of you. That’s really scary.”

https://www.gq.com/story/the-summer-of-elizabeth-warren

Jill Biden: 'Maybe you have to swallow a little' and vote for Joe

Former second lady Jill Biden made an unusually honest pitch to voters on Monday for her husband to be the 2020 Democratic presidential nominee.

“I know that not all of you are committed to my husband, and I respect that,” she said at a campaign event in Nashua, N.H. “But I want you to think about your candidate, his or her electability, and who’s going to win this race.”

“Your candidate might be better on, I don’t know, health care, than Joe is,” she continued. “But you’ve got to look at who’s going to win this election. And maybe you have to swallow a little bit and say, ‘OK, I personally like so and so better,’ but your bottom line has to be that we have to beat Trump.”

https://news.yahoo.com/jill-biden-maybe-you-have-to-swallow-a-little-and-vote-for-joe-142524433.html

Ah. Back to the "Only Joe Biden can win" strategy. Sorry, Jill, way to early to commit to that.

Too many polls beg to differ. Warren, Sanders, Harris, Buttigieg and even a few other candidates all have head to head polls showing they would also defeat Trump.

Let's see what the polls say after a few more debates. I bet all the Democratic candidates numbers go up against Trump even more.

National poll finds tight race between Biden, Sanders and Warren

BY JONATHAN EASLEY - 08/21/19 01:12

A new national survey of the Democratic presidential primary finds a three-way race for the nomination, with former Vice President Joe Biden barely leading Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.).

The latest poll from The Economist-YouGov finds Biden at 22 percent support, followed by Sanders at 19 percent and Warren at 17 percent. Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) registers 8 percent support and South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg comes in at 7 percent.

The Economist-YouGov survey finds a closer race nationally than most other polls. Biden leads the field by nearly 13 points in the RealClearPolitics average, with most other recent surveys putting his level of support in the 30 percent range.

Sanders has surged back into contention, according to the new poll, gaining more than any other candidate over the same survey from last month. That poll found Biden at 25 percent, followed by Warren at 18 and Sanders at 13.

But Warren might have the most room to grow — 50 percent of Democrats surveyed said they’re considering voting for her, compared to 45 percent who said the same of Biden and 44 percent who said they’re considering Sanders.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/458263-national-poll-finds-tight-race-between-biden-sanders-and-warren

Biden's margin with black voters probably won't yield the advantage it did for Hillary Clinton

By Philip Bump July 25
[snip]

So, in the abstract, this would seem like good news for Biden: a big lead with black voters pushing him to the front of the pack, just as it did Clinton.

There are three problems Biden faces, however, that Clinton didn’t. (Even setting aside the essential, point-it-out-at-least-three-times caveat that the field is in so much flux.)

To illustrate the problem, we’ll look at polling conducted in early-voting states this month by CBS and YouGov. Across the polled states, Biden gets 41 percent of the vote from black voters, more than twice the next-closest candidate. Among white voters in those states, he trails Warren.

Notice the margins here, though. Clinton won the states identified above by an average of 69 points. Those are run-up-the-score margins in places with a lot of black voters. A 20-point advantage, like the one Biden has in the CBS-YouGov poll, isn’t bad — but it’s not dominant. That’s the first problem.

That poll used its results to project how the top Democratic candidates might do in delegate counting after the voting was over. Delegate tallies rely on complicated math that’s not worth getting into here (read up, if you wish), but the point is straightforward: Biden is projected to lead once delegates from California, Texas, New Hampshire, Iowa and South Carolina are counted.

Notice, though, that his margins are often subtle. South Carolina stands out as a big burst for Biden, a reflection of the numbers at the top of this article. In California, though, he gets only about 20 more delegates than Warren or that state’s senator Kamala D. Harris. In Texas, he fares a bit better, picking up 25 more delegates than Warren. The advantage in South Carolina is his largest, at 32.

This is only five states, though, including the megastate of California, which wasn’t in the mix in 2016. California essentially replaces Georgia on the Super Tuesday calendar — trading a heavily black state for a more diverse one. A more diverse one with way more delegates and a high-profile home-state candidate. That’s the second problem.

The third problem is already visible above. The breakdown of delegates in Texas, per that YouGov analysis, is as follows:

CANDIDATE DELEGATES
Biden 92
Warren 67
O’Rourke 48
Sanders 18
Harris 3

It’s not a head-to-head contest in 2020. It’s a head-to-head-to-head-to-(repeat 200 times)-head contest. That means that the delegate totals aren’t divvied up between Clinton and Sanders but, instead, between whichever candidates hit the required baseline in voting. It’s harder to pull away in part because the field is so big in the first place.

As we like to point out, leading the pack isn’t a bad place to be, certainly. But Biden’s position in polls shows both his strength and some ways in which his path forward might be trickier than Clinton’s was three years ago — and it’s not like her path to the nomination wasn’t without potholes.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/07/25/bidens-margin-with-black-voters-likely-wont-yield-advantage-it-did-hillary-clinton/

Gov. Jay Inslee hits the 130k donor threshold

https://twitter.com/michaelscherer/status/1163623082499723264

Secret Democratic cloning Program to defeat tRump Revealed

https://twitter.com/IAStartingLine/status/1163873710312448000

tRump will fold then claim victory

https://twitter.com/davidaxelrod/status/1163520871463575553

Warren makes point on disparities in insurance coverage for physical and mental health

Warren makes point on disparities in insurance coverage for physical and mental health

During a July visit to Milwaukee, Democratic presidential hopeful Elizabeth Warren told an audience that when it comes to their mental health needs, their health insurer may not always be on their side.

According to the Massachusetts senator, that’s because there is an unequal playing field when it comes to coverage of physical and mental health needs.

"The law says that mental health must be treated the same as physical health," Warren said at the League of United Latin American Citizens convention in Milwaukee on July 11, 2019, referencing the idea that health providers don’t care equally for the two.

Warren was among eight Democratic presidential contenders, plus Jill Biden, wife of candidate Joe Biden, who attended the convention. LULAC is the largest and oldest Hispanic civil rights organization in the country.

But what does the law say about physical vs. mental health?

And, as Warren contends, do insurers treat them unequally?
[snip]

Our ruling

Warren claimed mental health and physical health have to be treated the same under the law, but coverage by health insurers is unequal.

The Mental Health Parity and Addiction Equity Act says insurers must provide equal coverage of physical and mental health. The ACA made it a requirement for insurers to cover certain benefits which included behavioral health.

But various studies and reports found that insurers often fall short of upholding this law.

We rate this claim True.

https://www.politifact.com/wisconsin/statements/2019/aug/20/elizabeth-warren/warren-makes-point-disparities-insurance-coverage-/

Warren Is Attracting More Supporters And More Media Attention

Of all the 2020 Democratic candidates, Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s campaign has stood out for making incremental but relatively steady gains. And along with a rise in her polling numbers, Warren has been getting more media attention.

Data from the TV News Archive shows that last week Warren was mentioned more often on cable news than she had been since at least April, when FiveThirtyEight began tracking the weekly number of cable news clips mentioning 2020 Demcoratic presidential hopefuls. (TV News Archive chops up cable news on the three networks we follow — CNN, Fox News and MSNBC — into 15-second clips.)1 And according to data from Media Cloud,2 a database of online news stories, Warren was the most-mentioned candidate in online news stories last week.

While Warren was mentioned in the greatest number of online news stories last week, she has only a narrow lead over Sen. Bernie Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden. All three were mentioned in about a third of the online news stories that mentioned any 2020 Democratic candidate, and have since late last month been mentioned in approximately the same percentage of stories. And despite her gains, Warren continues to trail Biden in cable news mentions.

Still, last week, Warren’s share of mentions rose and Biden’s fell across both mediums. That’s part of a larger trend for Biden. When he first declared his candidacy in April, Biden was consistently mentioned in more than 40 percent of all cable news clips that mentioned any Democratic candidate, but last week he was mentioned in about 32 percent — the smallest share since entering the race. And for the second time since Biden’s campaign launched, Biden dropped to the third most-mentioned candidate online while Warren led in online mentions.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/elizabeth-warren-is-attracting-more-supporters-and-more-media-attention/
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