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bluewater

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Member since: Fri Jun 7, 2019, 02:43 PM
Number of posts: 4,982

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Latest EMERSON Poll: Sanders gains on Biden. Steyer Stymied.

2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination
Emerson

_________7/30 ----> 8/27____

Biden...….. 33% ----> 31%
Sanders.... 20% ----> 24%
Warren..... 14% ----> 15%
Harris...…. 11% ----> 10%
Buttigieg.... 6% -----> 3%
O'Rourke.... 4% -----> 2%
Booker...….. 0% -----> 3%
Yang...…….. 2% -----> 4%
Castro...….. 1% -----> 1%
Gabbard..... 1% -----> 3%
Klobuchar... 0% -----> 1%
Williamson. 0% -----> 0%
Steyer……... 2% -----> 0%


Lead: Biden +13 ----> Biden +7 = Biden's lead drops -6

+/- 3.9% Margin of Error

http://emersonpolling.com/2019/08/27/august-national-poll-sanders-closing-gap-with-biden-mayor-pete-fades/

Disclaimer: It's still 5 months until actual voting starts. The results of any single poll should not be overemphasized.

Relatively little change from last month's poll. Front runner Biden's support moves downwards, but within the MOE.

Sanders was only candidate to have any change, +4%, that was outside the MOE.


Steyer drops to statistical 0%, but I am not sure if this was a qualifying poll.


Biden PLUMMETS in A+ Rated Monmouth Poll

Monmouth University Poll
Poll type: Live
538 A+ Rated with 80% Accuracy

_________6/17 ---> 8/26_____

Sanders... 14% ---> 20% +6
Warren.... 15% ---> 20% +5
Biden...…. 32% ---> 19% -13 <--- THAT'S A HUGE -13 DROP!
Harris...….. 8% ---> 8%
Booker...... 2% ---> 4%
Buttigieg... 5% ---> 4%
Yang...…... 2% ---> 3%
Castro...... 0% ---> 2%
O’Rourke.. 3% ---> 2%
Gabbard... 1% ---> 1%
Klobuchar. 1% ---> 1%

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_US_082619/

Biden drops -13% in this 538 A+ rated LIVE Poll, that's stunning.
Biden's support was almost cut in half!


Sanders, Warren and Biden are now in a 3-way statistical tie in this A+ Rated LIVE Monmouth University Poll, margin of error +/- 5.7%

Disclaimer: Actually voting does not start for 5 months. No single poll's results should be overemphasized.

About 90 minutes before Warren takes the stage in Seattle

Dave Weigel
Verified account
@daveweigel
Covering politics for @washingtonpost. [email protected]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1165715146292875264
https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1165721978335944704
More crowd enthusiasm for Elizabeth Warren!

There's a reason Warren is surging



Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) held a town hall in Los Angeles on Wednesday in front of a huge audience. If you saw her just a few months ago, you would have been impressed by how she weaves her personal story into her policy objectives, the ease with which she can explain a complex problem in simple and direct language, and her skill in presenting lots of individual ideas under a big theme (give ordinary Americans a chance). Well, she has gotten even better.

For one thing, she’s not telling exactly the same story. Sure, she tells how her mother had to get a minimum-wage job at Sears after her father had a heart attack. But we also hear about her three brothers in the military and her non-linear life and career. She has gotten “looser” and funnier. She interacts with the crowd more. She has less anger, more determination and more confidence. She is high-energy.

And she has put more substance into her three-part plan to end corruption, to use a wealth tax to pay for a whole lot of child care/education programs and to fix our democracy (e.g., end gerrymandering and voter suppression). If we do all that, we can make progress in a bunch of other areas.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/08/23/there-is-reason-elizabeth-warren-is-surging/

Biden Campaign, get ready to hate David Axelrod again...

https://twitter.com/davidaxelrod/status/1165404177780150272
The short -- but sweet -- honeymoon between the Biden Campaign and David Axelrod seems over...

Virtual Caucus at Risk After DNC Experts Hacked Conference Call

The Democratic National Committee has raised substantial cybersecurity concerns over virtual caucusing, potentially dooming the effort just five months before Iowa begins its process of choosing a presidential nominee.

At a closed-door session of the Rules and By-Laws Committee on Thursday, the DNC told the panel that experts convened by the party were able to hack into a conference call among the committee, the Iowa Democratic Party and Nevada Democratic Party, raising concerns about teleconferencing for virtual caucuses, according to three people who were at the meeting.


For the first time the DNC is requiring states that hold caucuses instead of primary elections to offer voters a way to participate without showing up at sites across the state. Iowa and Nevada are building a teleconference system for 2020, and Alaska plans a phone and web-based operation.
[snip]

The DNC is particularly sensitive to cybersecurity issues, given the hack into DNC emails in 2016, believed to have be carried out by Russian operatives.

The test and the revelation of hacking enraged party officials in caucus states who say the systems were not fully built and the hack of a general teleconferencing system is not comparable. The state party officials also said they were continuing to address any potential vulnerabilities as they build the system.

Caucus-state officials offered a litany of complaints: That the DNC created the rules about absentee participation without considering how the states should achieve that goal; that the DNC offered little help in devising a virtual system, what state officials called the most significant change in caucus procedure since modern caucuses began in 1972; and were slow to raise concerns about security.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-24/dnc-virtual-caucus-at-risk-after-experts-hacked-conference-call

What's the point of having a caucus instead of a primary again? Just to discourage voting by making the process needlessly involved and time consuming?

And can you even IMAGINE what chaos virtual caucusing by TELECONFERENCING will be like? Running normal teleconferences is bad enough...

Biden: "What's not to love about Vermont... ?"

Amanda Golden
Verified account
@amandawgolden
2020 Presidential Campaign Embed @NBCNews [email protected]

https://twitter.com/amandawgolden/status/1165362904159444992

Matt Viser
Verified account
@mviser
National political reporter at @washingtonpost | Reachable at [email protected]
https://twitter.com/mviser/status/1165366445280256000

A reporter from NBC News and another from the Washington Post were taken aback, somewhat, by this. Why?

It's just Joe being Joe, right? He's always been like this. Nothing new.
No one can tell us precisely if this is getting more frequent, right?


Insurance lobby chief calls Biden, Sanders health plans 'similarly bad'

Insurance lobby chief says Biden, Sanders health plans 'similarly bad'

The head of the nation's health insurance lobby on Wednesday said he does not see much difference between "Medicare for All," which is being championed by progressive Democratic presidential candidates, and the public option pushed by former Vice President Joe Biden.
Matt Eyles, president and CEO of America's Health Insurance Plans (AHIP), said Biden's public option would still have too much government involvement in the health care system.

"If you're creating a government-run option that essentially leverages price controls, and relies on a government-administered system, that doesn't create what would be a competitive playing field," Eyles told The Hill in an interview.

"It's more similar in some of the ... Medicare for All-type approaches than ... improving upon what the [Affordable Care Act] has," Eyles said.

Why it matters: It's not all about Medicare for All. Major players in the American health care system are attacking any proposals to expand Medicare with equal force. AHIP is a member of the Partnership for America's Health Care Future, an industry coalition of insurers, providers and drug companies, that formed to lobby against Medicare for All and public option proposals.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/overnights/458338-overnight-health-care-insurance-lobby-chief-says-biden-sanders


So, AHIP (a member of the Partnership for America's Health Care Future, an industry coalition of insurers, providers and drug companies, that formed to lobby against Medicare for All and public option proposals) hates BOTH Biden's and Sanders' health insurance plans. WHAT A SURPRISE. Not.


The Partnership for America's Health Care Future (an industry coalition of insurers, providers and drug companies) simply wants to keep the status quo, period. And the status quo isn't working for so many Americans.

If you are wondering about the next debate...

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1164309474439499777

Inslee dropped out today, so he no longer factors into the next debate.

Joe Biden's Poll Numbers Mask an Enthusiasm Gap

There are signs of a disconnect between support for Mr. Biden in polls and excitement for his campaign on the ground in Iowa.
By Katie Glueck

Joseph R. Biden Jr. is coasting in the national polls. Surveys show him ahead of his Democratic rivals in hypothetical matchups against President Trump. He has maintained a lead in Iowa all summer, despite facing months of controversies over his record and his campaign missteps.

But less than two weeks before Labor Day, when presidential campaigns traditionally kick into high gear, there are signs of a disconnect between his relatively rosy poll numbers and excitement for his campaign on the ground here, in the state that begins the presidential nominating process.

In conversations with county chairs, party strategists and dozens of voters this week at Mr. Biden’s events, many Democrats in Iowa described a case for Mr. Biden, the former vice president, that reflected shades of the one his wife, Jill Biden, bluntly sketched out on Monday. “You may like another candidate better, but you have to look at who is going to win,” she said, citing Mr. Biden’s consistent lead in early surveys.

The first ad of Mr. Biden’s campaign, released this week in Iowa, flashed some of his positive poll results against Mr. Trump on screen, and voter after voter cited those numbers in outlining their support for him, saying that defeating the president was their most urgent priority.

There are signs of an enthusiasm gap among Iowa voters. “He’s doing O.K., but I think a lot of his initial strength was name recognition,” one county chairwoman said.

That stands in stark contrast to the way voters explain their support for candidates like Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, who drew 12,000 people to an event this week in Minnesota, Iowa’s northern neighbor, or Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who also draws large crowds and maintains a core base of die-hard fans.

They and others trail Mr. Biden in most polls and face plenty of their own skeptics, but they also have followings rooted in zealous support for their ideas rather than the political calculus that many voters describe in assessing Mr. Biden.

The former vice president certainly has devoted fans, in Iowa and around the country, and continues to enjoy good will and respect from Democratic voters.

But the risks of a campaign argument that is heavily reliant on strong poll numbers, which can be fickle in a tumultuous election, were on vivid display throughout Mr. Biden’s trip to Iowa, as voters repeatedly emphasized that their support for him was closely linked to what they perceived as his strength against Mr. Trump.

It’s a case they make even as polls have shown several other candidates, namely Mr. Sanders, Ms. Warren and Senator Kamala Harris of California, running strongly against Mr. Trump, and as strategists caution that such theoretical matchups are hardly predictive of an election that’s more than a year away. The polls at this early stage are also partly a reflection of a candidate’s name recognition.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/22/us/politics/joe-biden-trump-2020.html

The Iowa voters have seen more of Joe Biden than the country at large, that may explain why he is in a close contest with Warren and Sanders there, but has a more comfortable lead in national polls.

Iowa voters are seeing the actual 2019 version of Joe, not recalling from memory the 2008 Biden.
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