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bluewater

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Member since: Fri Jun 7, 2019, 02:43 PM
Number of posts: 4,982

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Poll: Disappointed if they become the Nominee

The Economist/YouGov Poll July 7 - 9, 2019 - 1500 US Adult citizens

Table #44. Disappointed if Democratic nominee

Are there any presidential candidates that you would be disappointed if they became the Democratic nominee?

Bernie Sanders 19%

Joe Biden 18%
Beto O’Rourke 14%
Kamala Harris 10%
Pete Buttigieg 9%
Julian Castro 7%
Elizabeth Warren 7%

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/al25duedar/econTabReport.pdf
(Look for table #44 at the link.)

The frontrunner, Joe Biden has a "disappointed if they became the nominee" polling of 18%, which was second highest behind Bernie Sanders at 19% among top tier candidates.

Elizabeth Warren was tied with Julian Castro at 7% for the lowest disappointment result.

So, ~18% would be disappointed if either Biden or Sanders became the nominee in 2020. What does that tell us? Are they the most polarizing candidates?

Someone might win the nomination, but also be polarizing and demotivating to 1 out of 5 Democrats!
Such a nominee would not be our best bet to win the General Election in 2020.

A consensus candidate, the person that can bring both the moderate and progressive wings of the party behind them, would be - in my opinion - "the most electable" candidate in 2020.

This poll indicates that Elizabeth Warren is our best bet to find such a consensus candidate. It's one major reason why I support her in the primaries.

New Economist/YouGov poll has Biden at +5 lead.

The economist/YouGov poll has been one of the lower ones for Biden, with him polling in the mid 20's%

This week's poll stayed fairly unchanged:

Biden drifted down from 23% to 22% this week.
Warren moved down from 19% to 17%,
Harris stayed steady 14% to 14%
Sanders went up 9% to 11%.
Buttigieg moved down from 8% to 5%.

Biden's lead increased 1% to +5.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html#poll

Bluewater's Disclaimer: This is a very early poll. No single poll's results, especially this early, should be over emphasized.

[%'s updated to conform to internal Table, not RCP's summary which is different by 1% for several candidates]


Warren: Working families deserve living wages

https://twitter.com/ewarren/status/1148749126257074177

Elizabeth Warren understands the challenges working families in America face, she experienced them too:

Warren was born Elizabeth Ann Herring in Oklahoma City on June 22, 1949,[6][7][8][9] the fourth child of middle-class parents Pauline (née Reed, 1912–1995) and Donald Jones Herring (1911–1997). Warren has described her family as teetering "on the ragged edge of the middle class" and "kind of hanging on at the edges by our fingernails".[10][11] She had three older brothers and was raised Methodist.[12][13]

Warren lived in Norman until she was 11 years old, when her family moved to Oklahoma City.[11] When she was 12, her father, a salesman at Montgomery Ward,[11] had a heart attack, which led to many medical bills as well as a pay cut because he could not do his previous work.[8] He later worked as a custodian for an apartment building.[14] Eventually, the family's car was repossessed because they failed to make loan payments. To help the family finances, her mother found work in the catalog order department at Sears.[8] When she was 13, Warren started waiting tables at her aunt's restaurant.[15][16]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_Warren

Harris & AOC team up on bill to help those with criminal records get housing

Sen. Kamala Harris and New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez are teaming up to introduce legislation aimed at helping people with criminal records fairly obtain housing.

The bill, which the lawmakers will introduce Wednesday in their respective chambers, pledges to change eviction and screening policies in housing so people with a criminal history can apply for federal housing assistance.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/10/politics/kamala-harris-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-housing-bill/index.html

U.S. Senator and presidential candidate Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) is introducing a bill Wednesday with freshman Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) that aims to protect people with criminal records from discriminatory policies in federal housing.
According to Senator Harris’s office, the Fair Chance at Housing Act is designed to cut down on recidivism by helping ex-offenders secure housing and making sure people currently receiving federal housing assistance are not evicted unjustifiably. The main features of the bill include banning “1-strike” policies which empower landlords to evict tenants for a single occurrence of criminal activity, even if it is a minor incident. Former President Bill Clinton first ordered HUD to implement the policy in 1996 in tenant screening and lease agreements, according to The Los Angeles Times.

As it now stands, an entire family can be evicted based on the actions of one member or a guest of a family member. Alternatively, under Harris and Ocasio-Cortez’s bill, Public Housing Authorities would have to apply a more holistic approach when screening and evicting tenants based on criminal actions. More critically, public housing officials would not be able to deny housing to people with criminal records under the legislation.
Andre Perry, a fellow at the Brookings Institute who specializes in housing equity, told The Root that any legislation banning the “1-strike” rule will have a positive impact on those trying to bring stability to their lives without the threat of jail or homelessness hanging over their heads.
“Bipartisan passage of the First Step Act in 2018, which created programs that help reduce recidivism, signaled that even a fractured Congress believes that returning citizens deserve a real chance,” Perry said. “I see Harris and AOC’s plan as a next step. However, HUD must change a culture that sees “1-strike” policies among several [other] lease violations as an effective strategy for providing safe housing.”

https://www.theroot.com/kamala-harris-and-aoc-introduce-legislation-that-protec-1836228061


In light of the facts of systemic racism in the criminal justice system, mass incarceration and overcharging of minorities --- this seems like a great idea.

Kamala Harris: Credit scores should include rent, cell phones and utilities

Senator Kamala Harris is calling for reforms to the way in which credit scores are calculated in order to boost black homeownership.

Senator Kamala Harris wants to add more data to how credit bureaus calculate credit scores as part of a broader plan to address the black homeownership gap in the U.S.

The Democratic presidential candidate from California unveiled her plan last week during an appearance at the Essence Festival in New Orleans, an annual music and culture festival sponsored by Essence magazine.

Harris called for amending the Fair Credit Reporting Act to require credit reporting agencies to include payments of rent, cellphone bills and utilities when calculating credit scores.

While alternative credit scores have been developed that do just that, the traditional FICO score, named after the Fair Isaac Corporation FICO, +1.05% typically considers payments on debt such as credit cards, mortgages and auto loans. (Experian EXPGY, -0.93% however, has a tool that will include certain utility accounts included in your credit report.)

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/kamala-harris-says-credit-scores-should-include-rent-cell-phones-and-utilities-2019-07-09

Two Major Polls today show Biden actually losing some ground:

Biden lost support in two major polls this week, the Politico/MorningConsult poll and the Emerson poll.


Emerson has been one of Joe Biden's strongest polls, having showed him consistently in the mid 30's% prior to this week's poll.

Biden went from 34% to 30%
Sanders plummeted from 27% to 15%.
Harris's support increased 8%, from 7% to 15%.
Warren's support increased 1%, from 14% to 15%.

Biden's lead increased to +15 because Sanders, who was in second place, went down more than Biden did.


The Politico/Morning Poll is one of the strongest for Joe Biden, but this week his support continued to decline.

Biden went from 33% to 31%.
Sander's support in second place stayed steady at 19% for both this week and last week.
Support for Harris went up 2%, and support for Warren went up 1%.

Biden's lead decreased -2.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html


Disclaimer: This is a very early poll and the polls seem to be in flux. The results of any single poll should not be over emphasized this early.

So, despite any prior posts, these two polls today did NOT show Biden regaining some lost ground.

Biden EXPOSED: He's back to his old habit.

Did you really think I could go a day without a major Biden Exposé ?

This is from April, but it is STILL relevant, you can't rewrite history

Joe Biden is already back on the Amtrak
April 25, 2019

Did you know Joe Biden takes the Amtrak?

Just a few hours after the former vice president announced his candidacy for president, he was already spotted back aboard his favorite mode of transportation. America's top train line has been as constant in Biden's life as presidential campaigns, and, unsurprisingly, it's already a big part of his 2020 one.

Biden got his public transportation reputation back in his senatorial days, riding the train back and forth between his family in Delaware and Capitol Hill every day. He even took the Amtrak home after President Trump's inauguration in 2017. Now, the train has yet again pulled back into Biden's station, both in reality and in a very prominent place on Biden's campaign website.

https://theweek.com/speedreads/837551/joe-biden-already-back-amtrak

Elizabeth Warren says she raised $19 million in the second quarter of the year

Elizabeth Warren says she raised $19 million in the second quarter of the year

Sen. Elizabeth Warren announced Monday that she had raised $19.1 million over the past three months, more than triple what she brought in over the first quarter of the year.

Warren's campaign has already hired over 300 staffers across the country and spent nearly $16 million this year. She currently has just under $20 million cash on hand.
The second-term Massachusetts senator is a leader of the Democratic Party's populist left, and has sworn off high-dollar fundraisers. But she still raised more this quarter than every candidate except former Vice President Joe Biden and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigeig, both of whom have stopped for numerous big-money fundraising events on the campaign trail.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/elizabeth-warren-says-she-raised-19-million-in-the-second-quarter-of-the-year/

Senator Warren is on the move!

5 Democratic presidential candidates will be in Milwaukee this week

Five presidential candidates will be at the League of United Latin American Citizens national convention this week in Milwaukee.

MILWAUKEE —

Five Democratic presidential candidates will be in Milwaukee this week.
Sen. Bernie Sanders, Rep. Julian Castro, Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Rep. Beto O'Rourke will participate in a presidential town hall on Thursday night.

It's part of the League of United Latin American Citizens national convention at the Wisconsin Center.
Candidate Marianne Williamson will speak to the convention on Friday.

Elizabeth Warren will also hold a separate town hall meeting at Milwaukee’s South Division High School at 7 p.m. Thursday.

https://www.wisn.com/article/five-democratic-presidential-candidates-will-be-in-milwaukee-this-week/28312422

Warren brings a breath of fresh air to debates

In many ways, the economic debate in the U.S. has been stuck for quite a while. Progressives want higher taxes on the rich, more spending on the poor and more government health care; conservatives and libertarians want less. The 2016 election brought some innovation, with Donald Trump's protectionism and the socialist revival sparked by Bernie Sanders.
But the biggest breath of fresh air is coming from Democratic presidential candidate and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren.

Just since the start of this year, Warren has released no fewer than 19 detailed economic policy proposals. This outpouring of ideas has been so dramatic that it has spawned Twitter hashtags such as #shehasaplan.
Warren’s ideas are neither the cautious, technocratic tweaks that tend to emerge from centrist think tanks, nor the bold but vague promises often issued by the socialist left. Nor are they merely a laundry list of campaign promises. Instead, they represent a coherent, unified program for transforming the U.S. economy.
[snip]

Warren's ideas are also notable for their specificity. In their recent book “Concrete Economics,” economist Brad DeLong and historian Stephen S. Cohen argued that successful policy programs should have concrete goal instead of leaving the future up to the vagaries of the market. Warren seems intent on doing exactly that - under her industrialist program, Americans would get more housing, more opportunity to start their own businesses and more respect and power at work. They would also get more child care, cancellation of student debt, assistance with addiction, and a number of other tangible benefits. A health care plan is surely also forthcoming.

https://www.mcall.com/opinion/mc-opi-elizabeth-warren-new-deal-20190626-7apki5ilxbfedfaccelmzuoyyi-story.html
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