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Member since: Fri Jun 7, 2019, 02:43 PM
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MorningConsult Poll remains in a holding pattern

538 B- rated: MorningConsult Poll
for the weeks of July 9th --> July 16th --> July 23rd

Biden...… 31% --> 32% --> 33%
Sanders.. 19% --> 19% --> 18%
Warren... 13% --> 14% --> 14%
Harris..... 14% --> 13% --> 13%
Buttigieg.. 6% ----> 5% ---> 5%
O'Rourke.. 3% ----> 3% ---> 3%

Poll's Margin of Error: +/- 2%

The MorningConsult poll has been consistently one of Biden's best polls yielding results for him in the low 30%'s compared to his national polling average of 28.6%.


For the second week in a row, the Morning consult poll has remained essentially unchanged, with some slight movement within the margin of error.


Are responders waiting for the next debate? It will be interesting to see if the July 30th/July31st debate shakes this up.

Hickenlooper asks Ivanka Trump for 2020 support

Democratic presidential candidate John Hickenlooper asked an unlikely person to support his long-shot candidacy: White House adviser Ivanka Trump.
The former governor of Colorado tweeted at the president's daughter asking if he can "count on" her support after she tweeted about the "Colorado success story."
Trump tweeted that "since the election" Colorado has seen an increase in average hourly earnings, the creation of 143,900 new jobs and an uptick in the labor force participation rate.

"Let's keep winning Colorado!" she tweeted.
"Hey @IvankaTrump, I'm running for president on our economic success in Colorado. Can I count on your support?" Hickenlooper quipped back.

Hickenlooper is one of more than two dozen Democrats seeking the party nomination to take on President Trump in 2020.
His bid for the presidency has not gained much traction among the crowded field.

He is, however, seen as a stronger candidate for a Senate seat. Hickenlooper said he does not plan on dropping out of the primary to seek a spot in the Senate.


Majority of independents oppose Trump reelection

Majority of independents oppose Trump reelection, undecided on 2020 Democrats: poll
By Julia Manchester

A majority of independent voters say they will not vote for President Trump in 2020 but are undecided on which 2020 Democratic candidate to support, according to a new NPR–NewsHour–Marist poll released on Monday.

The poll found that only 33 percent of independents said they would definitely vote for the president in 2020, while 54 percent said they would definitely vote against him. Thirteen percent of independents said they were unsure if they would vote for the president.

But independents are yet to coalesce around a Democratic challenger: 84 percent of independents said they had not yet made up their mind on which 2020 Democratic presidential candidate they would support. Only 15 percent said they knew who [edit: i.e. which Democrat] they would support.

The poll also found 44 percent approve of President Trump, his highest approval rating since the poll has been conducted, while 52 percent disapprove of his job performance

The poll was conducted one day after Trump tweeted that progressive Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) and Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.) should "go back" to "the totally broken and crime infested places from which they came."
The tweet sparked outcry from Democrats, including presidential candidates, and concern among Republicans, who have since expressed worry about the impact of Trump's tweets and the subsequent "send her back" chant about Omar days later at a Trump rally.


Harris unveils plan to revamp infrastructure, ensure access to clean water

Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) plans to introduce legislation to ensure minority communities have access to clean water and to upgrade outdated water infrastructure.
The Water Justice Act would invest $250 billion toward affordability, sustainability and safety measures while replacing lead service lines as well as providing assistance for families unable to pay water bills, according to Harris’s office.

The bill would specifically allocate $10 billion to offset water costs in low-income and “environmentally at-risk” communities, with the latter determined by proximity to hazardous or heavily polluted sites.

It would also allocate $50 billion in emergency funds to communities whose water supplies have been contaminated, such as Flint, Mich., including funds for communities and schools to test water and replace or fix tainted water infrastructure.
“Every American has the right to clean water, period,” Harris said in a statement. “We must take seriously the existential threat represented by future water shortages and acknowledge that communities across the country — particularly communities of color — already lack access to safe and affordable water.”

“Achieving true justice in our nation will require us to recognize the precious nature of water and take bold action to invest in long-term, sustainable solutions to ensure it is accessible for all,” she added.

Corresponding legislation has been introduced in the house by Reps. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.), who represents the Flint area, and Brenda Lawrence (D-Mich.). “My hometown of Flint knows all too well the consequences of failing to invest in our drinking water systems. No family should ever have to worry if the water coming out of their taps is safe, and unfortunately that is a reality for many communities across the country,” Kildee said in a statement.


Is Biden's Media Monopoly Coming To An End?

Is Biden’s Media Monopoly Coming To An End?
By Dhrumil Mehta

Last week, former Vice President Joe Biden was not the Democratic candidate who was mentioned in the most online news stories, marking the first time he has failed to claim that title since at least early June, when FiveThirtyEight began tracking online news coverage. According to data from Media Cloud,1 Biden dropped from first to third place last week, trailing closely behind Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren in terms of online stories that mentioned their names as a percentage of stories mentioning any Democratic 2020 candidate. But Biden was still the most-talked-about candidate on cable news, according to data from the TV News Archive, which chops cable news coverage from the three networks we monitor — CNN, Fox News and MSNBC — into 15-second clips.

This isn’t the first time Biden’s media dominance has been challenged. The week following the first Democratic debate, Sen. Kamala Harris came close to unseating Biden as the most-mentioned candidate in both cable and online news, though she ultimately came up short. Biden has held the top spot in cable news mentions since he launched his campaign in April, and in online news, he was less than 3 percentage points out of first place last week, so despite his drop in the rankings, he still got a similar share of coverage to Sanders and Warren.

It’s too soon to say whether Biden has been permanently unseated or if he’s just temporarily getting slightly less attention. We’ll be watching the numbers leading into and following the second Democratic debate to see if Biden will finally have to start sharing the media spotlight with the rest of the field or if he will once again be able to keep the bulk of the coverage focused on himself. Stay tuned!


2020 polling shows Warren and Harris on the rise

CNN's John King discusses recent polling data as the Democratic presidential candidates prepare for the second round of debates.

Kamala Harris isn't 'electable'?!? It could be code for not being a white man

Kamala Harris isn’t ‘electable’? It could be code for not being a white man
by Joe Garofoli July 19, 2019

Sen. Kamala Harris’ supporters were thrilled by a poll out this week showing she’s in a virtual dead heat with former Vice President Joe Biden in California, but the Quinnipiac University survey also contained a more troubling message for Harris.

Many California Democrats surveyed thought Biden “had the best chance” of defeating President Trump. They also thought he would be “the best leader.”

The not-so-subtle message in the poll brought up one of the most overused terms in politics: “electability.” It’s a word that Harris’ advocates say is loaded with racial and gender stereotypes.

“This (poll) shows that too many people are believing the fiction of electability,” said Aimee Allison, an Oakland activist and founder of She the People, which focuses on issues affecting women of color. “That because Joe Biden is a white guy, he will be able to stand up to another white guy like Donald Trump.”

Some voters think the message of 2016 was “that to beat Donald Trump, you need someone who looks like Donald Trump and talks like Donald Trump — and is a straight shooter that Middle America feels comfortable with,” Lawless said.
But given studies that show that women and people of color win elections just as often as white men, Lawless said, “I don’t know if there’s any evidence that is true.”

Then again, Lawless doesn’t mince words when it comes to the term electability:

“I hate it,” she said. “I hate it because it means different things to different people. It means different things at different times.”


Biden's projected delegates considerably fewer this month -- CBS News Battleground Tracker

We estimate that Biden currently has 581 delegates in the nominating contests through Super Tuesday, which is considerably fewer than his estimate last month. This is based on our model, which translates voter preferences into district- and state-level estimates, taking into account Democratic party allocation rules. Delegates are given out proportionally to top finishers in each district and statewide.

Meanwhile, Elizabeth Warren's estimate has improved to 430 delegates, significantly reducing the gap between her and Biden. She does particularly well with college graduates, politically engaged voters and very liberal Democrats.


The all important race for delegates is tightening up!

Interesting to note that besides Warren and Harris gaining projected delegates, that only Beto and Klobuchar are currently projected to have delegates from among the "second tier" of candidates.

Democratic delegate race tightens -- CBS News Battleground Tracker

While Joe Biden continues to lead all Democratic candidates across early states in the presidential nominating process, his previously large advantage has shrunk since June, according to the latest estimates from the CBS News Battleground Tracker poll and delegate model.

While poll percentages in each state often attract attention, the race for the Democratic presidential nomination is ultimately a fight for delegates at the party's national convention next July. The party is set to seat 3,768 delegates at the convention in Milwaukee, and a candidate needs to win at least 1,885 delegates to win the nomination.

We estimate that Biden currently has 581 delegates in the nominating contests through Super Tuesday, which is considerably fewer than his estimate last month. This is based on our model, which translates voter preferences into district- and state-level estimates, taking into account Democratic party allocation rules. Delegates are given out proportionally to top finishers in each district and statewide.

Meanwhile, Elizabeth Warren's estimate has improved to 430 delegates, significantly reducing the gap between her and Biden. She does particularly well with college graduates, politically engaged voters and very liberal Democrats.

Bernie Sanders is currently in third place with 249 delegates. His estimate has dropped since last month. While he's kept most of his supporters, he hasn't done quite as well at retaining them, particularly college-educated Democrats: one in 10 of his supporters from June now say Warren is their top choice.

Kamala Harris is currently in fourth with 173 delegates. Although her vote share across these states is one point higher than Sanders' share, delegates are what counts, and Sanders is picking them up in more places, including Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.


Biden, Warren, Harris and Sanders top 2020 field -- CBS News Battleground Tracker poll

Joe Biden continues to be the first choice among Democratic voters across the 2020 primary states holding contests through Super Tuesday. However, rivals Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris are gaining on him and have seen increases in the number of voters at least considering them, suggesting they could have more room to gain going forward.

If we consider a 15% threshold as the minimum support needed to win convention delegates, then across the early states, four candidates would meet that benchmark: Biden, Warren, Harris and Bernie Sanders.

The contest is tighter now among estimated delegates across early states, the true measure of the contest — delegates to the convention. By this measure, Warren is much closer to Biden due to stronger showings especially in very liberal areas.

But there may be a trade-off here, since Biden faces something of a passion gap when compared with other candidates who trail him. A majority of Democrats (56%) feel Warren will fight "a great deal" for people like them, and 54% believe this of Sanders, while a smaller percentage — 38% — describe Biden this way.

Respondents were given a list of candidate descriptions, and when asked to choose which candidate seemed the most "passionate," Warren and Sanders tested highest on this measure (28% each), followed by Harris (23%). Fewer Democratic voters put Biden at the top of the pack on this characteristic (14%).

Warren is seen as the most "specific" of the top-tier candidates by a wide margin (42%) over the others. Related to that specificity, Warren also outpaces the field with voters who see her as most "prepared" in the campaign so far. (Those who see her as most specific also feel she is most prepared.)

Harris, more than the others, is perceived as "strong" (32%), with Warren and Biden trailing her on this characteristic.

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