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Hometown: Whitehall, OH
Home country: USA
Current location: Australia
Member since: Thu Sep 27, 2018, 05:37 PM
Number of posts: 7,277

About Me

gone fishing

Journal Archives

Bernie in Iowa, now and then.

DMZ/Selzer Polls- Favorables

Net Favorables 2016 +70, 2020 +37.

Total Favorable 82%
Total Unfavorable 12%

Total Favorable 66%
Total Unfavorable 29%

Very Favorable %
2020 32
2016 42

Mostly Favorable %
2020 33
2016 40

Mostly Unfavorable %
2020 16
2016 8

Very Unfavorable %
2020 13
2016 4

DMR/Selzer, January 30, 2016

DMR/Selzer, January 10, 2020

DMR/Selzer Net Favorables: Warren +46, Buttigieg +44, Sanders +37, Biden +29 (Fav-UnFav)

CNN/ Des Moines Register/ Mediacom Iowa Poll

Very Favorable (percent)

Biden 22
Buttigieg 34
Sanders 32
Warren 32

Mostly Favorable (percent)

Biden 40
Buttigieg 34
Sanders 32
Warren 38

Mostly Unfavorable (percent)

Biden 20
Buttigieg 15
Sanders 16
Warren 14

Very Unfavorable (percent)

Biden 13
Buttigieg 9
Sanders 13
Warren 10

Total Favorable (percent)

Biden 62
Buttigieg 68
Sanders 66
Warren 70

Total Unfavorable (percent)

Biden 33
Buttigieg 24
Sanders 29
Warren 24

EDIT: CF 2016
Clinton Favorable 81%, Unfavorable 17%
Sanders Favorable 82%, Unfavorable 13%

538: "Iowa matters a lot". If Biden prevails, he has a 80% chance of winning outright.

Biden, for instance, would be a heavy favorite if he wins Iowa, with an 80 percent chance of a delegate majority and an 84 percent chance of a plurality. His majority chances would fall to 20 percent following an Iowa loss, however.

Sanders would be a slight favorite to win a majority after an Iowa win, with a 61 percent chance, but his majority chances would fall to 8 percent with a loss there. Warren would also be a slight favorite to win a delegate majority after an Iowa win, but Buttigieg would not be (although his position would be substantially strengthened).

These scenarios account for Iowa wins of all shapes and sizes — big, emphatic wins and narrow, perhaps even disputed ones. With a landslide win in Iowa, Sanders might be a fairly heavy overall favorite for the nomination.

If Iowa were a four-way pileup instead — with Sanders narrowly winning and Biden in a strong second place, for instance — Sanders’s projected bounce might not be enough to help him overtake Biden in national polls and the nomination could remain fairly open-ended.


RCP National Averages: Sanders breaks through 20% for the first time since Biden announced.

RCP Avergage 9/1/20: Biden 29.3%, Sanders 20.3%, Warren 14.8%, Buttigieg 7.5%, Bloomberg 5.8%

W was better at reading from a transcript than IMPOTUS


Democrats slept on Bernie Sanders ... treating the Vermont senator as an afterthought.

Democrats slept on Bernie Sanders. Now he's surging as Iowa approaches

(CNN) He has been dismissed, shrugged off, and, most gratingly to his campaign and supporters, ignored for long stretches by other leading primary rivals and national political pundits.

But with less than a month before the Iowa caucuses, this volatile 2020 presidential primary has taken yet another eye-popping turn: Bernie Sanders is being recognized by the Democratic establishment, sometimes in puzzlement and others in fear, as the real deal -- a legitimate contender, even a front-runner, to become the party's next presidential nominee.

(snip) Biden and other moderates like Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar have mostly passed up potential flashpoints with Sanders, preferring to zero in on his progressive ally Elizabeth Warren, whose headline-grabbing surge in the polls over the summer made her a more appealing target.

Both Biden and Klobuchar may have unwittingly boosted Sanders in their zeal to undermine Kamala Harris and Warren, respectively. In separate venues, both described Sanders as "honest" in order to knock down other rivals during exchanges over the nuts and bolts of "Medicare for All."

(snip) If Sanders succeeds, a Democratic establishment that either opposes his policies on a substantive level or views his leftist politics as a general election loser -- or some combination of the two -- will be left asking itself why it spent long stretches of the campaign treating the Vermont senator as an afterthought.


Prince Harry and Meghan Markle to 'Step Back' From Royal Family

Source: New York Times

Prince Harry and Meghan, the Duchess of Sussex, announced on Wednesday that they would “step back as ‘senior’ members of the royal family” and split their time between Britain and North America.

The decision was announced on the couple’s Instagram account, and was made “after many months of reflection and internal discussions,” they said. The couple added that they intended “to carve out a progressive new role within this institution” and become financially independent.

Though the statement gave no indication of where the couple would spend time in North America, speculation quickly grew that they would go either to Canada, a commonwealth country that they recently visited, or Los Angeles, where Meghan is from.

“This geographic balance will enable us to raise our son with an appreciation for the royal tradition into which he was born, while also providing our family with the space to focus on the next chapter, including the launch of our new charitable entity,” the statement said.

Read more: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/08/world/europe/prince-harry-meghan-markle-royal-family.html

Will not be rubbing shoulders with Andy so often, I'm thinking.

A DU'er posts Bernie tweet praising Biden. Tweet deleted. Pure Sirota.

Nice to know you're here David. How's Agent Mike doing these days?

Warren on Bloomberg 2020: 'I guess he figured it was cheaper than paying a 2c wealth tax'

Elizabeth Warren on Bloomberg 2020: 'I guess he figured it was cheaper than paying a two-cent wealth tax'

You worked hard. You had a great idea. You hit the big moment, and you made it big. Good for you! I’m glad to hear it. All we’re saying is if you make it big, I mean really big pitch in two cents so everybody else gets a chance at this.

Yahoo Finance: During a campaign rally in Brooklyn with former presidential candidate Julian Castro, U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) took the time to talk about her proposed Ultra-Millionaire Tax that she says would help give back to America’s middle class.

“It is time for a wealth tax in America,” Warren said to a packed room of supporters.

(snip) “You may have heard: there are some billionaires that have taken exception to this — go on TV and cry,” Warren said, mocking tears. “Other billionaires have been moved to run for president. I guess he figured it was cheaper than paying a two-cent wealth tax.”

(snip) Under Warren’s wealth tax, Bloomberg would pay $3.163 billion, while Cooperman would pay $151 million, according to her website’s Calculator for the Billionaires.

“Here’s the argument from these guys: ‘We got out there and we worked hard. We earned this money. This is what a market economy is all about,’” Warren said. “And here’s my answer to that: You worked hard. You had a great idea. You hit the big moment, and you made it big. Good for you! I’m glad to hear it.”

She continued: “But understand this: You built a great fortune here in America, I guarantee you built at least in part using workers all of us helped pay to educate,” Warren said. “All we’re saying is if you make it big, I mean really big, I mean top 1/10th of 1% big, pitch in two cents so everybody else gets a chance at this.”


74% of Americans, including 65% of Republicans support an Annual Wealth Tax
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