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Member since: Sun Dec 3, 2017, 09:40 AM
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Roanoke College Poll: McAuliffe 47% Youngkin 46%

Just a few days before Election Day, the race for Virginia governor is a statistical tie. Former Democrat Gov. Terry McAuliffe holds a 1-percentage point lead over Republican Glenn Youngkin (47%-46%) with 6% undecided, according to The Roanoke College Poll.[1] The downticket races are also within the margin of error, with Del. Hala Ayala (D) ahead of former Del. Winsome Sears (R) 46%-44% for lieutenant governor and Attorney General Mark Herring (D) leading Del. Jason Miyares (R) 46%-45% in the race for attorney general. The Institute for Policy and Opinion Research interviewed 571 likely Virginia voters between October 14 and October 28 and has a margin of error of +4.1%.


This election will be decided by turnout on Tuesday.

VA early vote estimate: Dem voters: 54.7% Repub voters: 30.4%

Tom Bonier, who runs the Democratic data firm TargetSmart, estimates that 54.7 percent of those who have cast ballots already are Democratic voters and 30.4 percent are Republican voters. That’s a bigger advantage than President Biden built in 2020, when early Democratic voters outnumbered early Republican voters by a 9-point edge.

But the overall share of voters casting early votes is likely to be lower than the share who did so in 2020.

Last year, the 2.8 million early votes cast represented almost 63 percent of total ballots cast. This year, the total early vote — likely to land somewhere around 850,000 votes — is probably going to wind up as closer to a third of total ballots cast.

So McAuliffe has probably built a higher wall among early voters, but the Election Day wave is going to be taller than it was last year.


That's a huge lead going into election day, but lets hope VA Dems who havent voted yet also show up on election day to make sure we win this thing.

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