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honest.abe

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Member since: Sun Dec 3, 2017, 10:40 AM
Number of posts: 5,775

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Missouri was the closest primary in 2016. Hillary 49.6 Sanders 49.4

Wow. Things have certainly changed and we can give the credit to Biden.

This is especially encouraging for the general showing that Biden can appeal to all voter demographics.

NY Times Op-Ed: The Simple Reason the Left Won't Stop Losing

How did the political left squander the opportunity that was the 2020 primary campaign?

The Trump presidency has created tremendous energy among progressives. More than half of Democratic voters now identify as liberal. Most favor “Medicare for all.” A growing number are unhappy with American capitalism.

This year’s campaign offered the prospect of transformational change, with a Democratic nominee who was more liberal than any in more than a half-century. Instead, the nominee now seems likely to be a moderate white grandfather who first ran for president more than 30 years ago and whose campaign promises a return to normalcy.
--snip--
The biggest lesson is simply this: The American left doesn’t care enough about winning. It’s an old problem, one that has long undermined left-wing movements in this country. They have often prioritized purity over victory. They wouldn’t necessarily put it these terms, but they have chosen to lose on their terms rather than win with compromise.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/08/opinion/sanders-democratic-primary.html

This is a very good article in my opinion. Sanders and his campaign have focused too much on appealing to the fringe of the Democratic party. In fact so much so, he has probably done more harm than good to the progressive movement.

NOTE: There is a paywall but you might be able to get through it by going incognito. That worked for me.

New Missouri poll (3/7-9): Biden up +39 !!

Biden: 68%
Sanders: 29%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2020/0ptimus_MO_Democratic_Primary_March_10_2020.pdf

Looks like a major blowout in the works in the Show-Me state.

NOTE: Optimus is a C/D rated pollster on 538. Although I think they have this one about right.

Looks like the fun begins at 8pm ET tonight!

Poll closing times for today:

Michigan: 8 p.m. ET (in four Michigan counties, polls will close at 9 p.m. ET)
Mississippi: 8 p.m. ET
Missouri: 8 p.m. ET

North Dakota: Poll hours vary by county, all polls will close by 10 p.m. ET
Idaho: 10 p.m. ET (in Idaho's nine northern counties, polls will close at 11 p.m. ET)
Washington: 11 p.m. ET

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/polls-close-what-time-march-10-primary-election/

Expecting another big night for Joe!

The only state Sanders wins on Tuesday will be North Dakota.

Its the only one that is a caucus. The rest are primaries where more people vote. The more that vote, the better for Biden. That is a huge advantage.

There are now only two viable candidates and there are alot more Democratic voters who dont want Sanders versus those that do. It does appear Sanders has a ceiling of about 30-35%. Biden has no ceiling.

I predict Tuesday will be another very big day for Biden.

Examiner: Biden seeks knockout blow against Bernie Sanders in Michigan primary

Just weeks ago, Joe Biden's third White House run seemed dead in the water. Now, pollsters and Democratic insiders say he can end the primary on March 10 with a win in Michigan.
--snip--
"I am assuming that Biden winning is likely, given what’s happened in other states," said Michigan pollster Bernie Porn, who is currently conducting a survey of Michigan Democrats that he believes will show Biden with a substantial lead when completed. "Knowing that black participation is likely to be fairly strong, and there’s this almost inexplicable coalition building around Joe that is moving towards him being the likely nominee."
--snip--
A loss in Michigan could irreversibly diminish Sanders's chances of winning the nomination. After Tuesday, the map only becomes more difficult for him with delegate-rich states such as Florida and Georgia holding their primaries a week later. Sanders's entire campaign strategy revolves around momentum, and another disappointing finish could leave him with no plan B.

"There just aren't enough delegates there for Bernie in the rest of the primaries to make up for his losses. The only areas where Bernie is favored is in Washington state, which votes the same day as Michigan," Porn said. "Another issue for Sanders is that the California primary isn’t definitively over yet, and that could end up closer than what Bernie initially thought. Biden could pick up more support as early voting tallies come up. That would only narrow Sanders's delegate share even more."

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/biden-seeks-knockout-blow-against-bernie-sanders-in-michigan-primary

Most recent polling in MI has Biden up in the high single digits but I suspect Biden's advantage is actually bigger that. Obama is still extremely popular there and Biden benefits significantly from that and Michigan's popular Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has recently endorsed him. Also, Biden is still on a roll from his huge ST wins and nothing has happened to stop that momentum, if anything its still building.

NOTE: Sorry for the RW source. The article seemed good and accurate. The author is Joe Simonson, media reporter and critic with The Daily Caller News Foundation.

CA SOS: 3.28 million total unprocessed ballots in California!!

https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/statewide-elections/2020-primary/unprocessed-ballots-report.pdf

This report was just released at 5pm Pacific Time. These are likely late voters after SC which would probably trend heavy to Biden. Biden is going to gain alot on Sanders and I think possibly close the gap.

See my analysis of how Biden could actually win CA.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287633147

Emerson Missouri poll: Biden leads Sanders 48% - 44%

An Emerson College/Nexstar Media poll of Democratic voters in Missouri finds a tight race between former Vice President Joe Biden at 48% and Senator Bernie Sanders at 44%, a statistical dead heat. Six-percent (6%) of voters were undecided or voting for someone else and 2% were voting for Tulsi Gabbard. The poll was conducted March 4-5, 2020, with a sample of n=425 of likely Democratic primary voters and a margin of error of +/- 4.7%.

The poll was conducted before Senator Elizabeth Warren had dropped out of the Presidential race on Thursday, however, Warren supporters were asked who their second choice candidates are. A majority, 53%, said that Sanders was their second choice, followed by 32% who said Biden was their second choice, 5% who chose Gabbard, and 10% who were undecided as to who their second choice candidate will be.

As has been the case in previous Emerson polls, there is a large age divide in support of the candidates. Of voters under the age of 50, 66% support Sanders, compared to 27% who support Biden. And of voters 50 and older, 70% support Biden, and 21% support Sanders.

Among white voters, it is a tight race as both Biden and Sanders receive 47% support. While among non-white voters, Biden leads with 50% support followed by Sanders at 36%.

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/missouri-2020-biden-with-slim-lead-on-sanders

Sounds like Missouri will be a wash with neither candidate gaining much, which probably benefits Biden.

Politico: Biden can finish Bernie off in Michigan

It was Michigan where Sanders engineered a primary day miracle four years ago, upsetting Hillary Clinton and imprinting his populist agenda on the industrial Midwest.
--snip--
Even before Sanders’ woebegone Tuesday — marked by losses to Joe Biden throughout the South and in Massachusetts and Minnesota — a Detroit News/WDIV-TV poll put Biden ahead of Sanders by nearly 7 percentage points in Michigan. Of voters who had already cast absentee ballots, the outlook was bleaker, with Sanders running behind Biden by nearly 20 percentage points.

And that was before Super Tuesday laid bare the full force of the momentum Biden drew from winning South Carolina, prompting moderate Democrats to coalesce around him and persuading many undecided voters to break his way.

“This thing could be over for all intents and purposes in three weeks,” said Paul Maslin, a top Democratic pollster who worked on the presidential campaigns of Jimmy Carter and Howard Dean. “It’s done unless Joe makes some horrible mistake. He will win blacks 75-25 minimum from here on in. He doesn’t have Hillary’s negatives. And people want to beat Trump big time. This race is over.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/04/joe-biden-bernie-sanders-michigan-121160

Bernie's last gasp to win Michigan is likely to fail. I think he loses by 10+ points. If so it's over.

How Biden can win CA.. the math.

-- Currently there are about 3 million votes counted.
-- In 2016 CA Dem primary there were over 5 million votes cast
-- The turnout this year is expected to exceed that.
-- Assume a 6 million turnout so that would mean about 3 million still to be counted.
-- We are told Biden is winning the same day voting in CA but not sure by how much.
-- Assume the vast majority of those to be counted are late voters after SC.
-- So they would trend Biden.. perhaps in a big way.
-- Let say for example Biden pulls 40% and Bernie 30% in the unprocessed ballots.

3 million (unprocessed) X .40 = 1.2 million more votes for Biden
3 million (unprocessed) X .30 = 900,000 more votes for Sanders

A net gain of 300,000 votes for Biden.

Current vote totals:

Sanders: 1,055,162 + 900,000 = 1,955,162
Biden: 781,718 + 1,200,000 = 1,981,718

Biden wins by about 25,000 votes.

Wouldn't that be a kicker.

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