By "major upset," I mean if a candidate wins that is down by 8-10 points or more. So for example, Beto O'Rourke winning wouldn't be a major upset, since he is down 4-6 points in most polls. Heitkamp beating Cramer would be though, as would Hugin beating Menendez.

I don't think we'll get any gubernatorial or Senate major upsets. I do think we'll win a lot of elections where we're 5 points behind. Beto takes it. I'm a little less confidant in Bredesen winning in TN, but I think it will be a close all-nighter. Certainly possible.

November 4, 2008. Time sure does fly! In honor of this, let's replicate the feeling of celebration this Tuesday!