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Member since: Wed Jun 7, 2017, 08:20 AM
Number of posts: 3,507

Journal Archives

All about IDT - The Coronavirus Test Botcher

Why did CDC choose IDT? Instead of buying available tests from elsewhere?


Here’s some

Integrated DNA Technologies, Inc. (IDT) develops, manufactures, and markets nucleic acid products for the life sciences industry in the areas of academic and commercial research, agriculture, medical diagnostics, and pharmaceutical development. IDT has developed proprietary technologies for genomics applications such as next generation sequencing, CRISPR genome editing, synthetic biology, digital PCR, and RNA interference. Through its GMP services, IDT manufactures products used by researchers in diagnostic tests for many forms of cancer and most inherited and infectious diseases. IDT is widely recognized as the industry leader in custom nucleic acid manufacture, serving over 130,000 life sciences researchers. IDT has its manufacturing headquarters in Coralville, Iowa, USA, with additional manufacturing sites in San Diego, California, USA; Leuven, Belgium; and Singapore.

Bilateral Interstitial Pneumonia aka CoronaVirus

This is from a front line Italian Doctor

“...you see the diagnosis, which is always the damned same:

bilateral interstitial pneumonia.

This is what CoronaVirus can be diagnosed as.

Anyway of finding a centralized reporting of # of deaths in US in 2020 from

bilateral interstitial pneumonia.


Are They Fn Kidding Us? key testing component is in short supply!

Reporting a key testing component is in short supply.

Heres the news. Too upset to add to it

A new shortage of a key testing component is hobbling the U.S. battle against COVID-19 as the number of confirmed coronavirus cases continues to rise.


In some cases, the shortage has prompted lab personnel to borrow components from colleagues who were using similar kits for testing unrelated to COVID-19, said Marc Lipsitch, a Harvard University epidemiologist.

The extent of the problem could not immediately be determined.


And oh btw Harvard is vacating campus on Sunday.

Death Rate Soaring 😳

If these numbers are true, coronavirus may be more lethal than originally reported. Please crunch the numbers and prove me wrong!!! Please

17% death rate for Italy’s recently reported coronavirus cases. WTH! 168/977 🤯😭😭

Worldwide, 54% are recovered. And the 46%?

US numbers reflect the original 3.4% mortality rate.

Obviously the US numbers beg questioning and all reports are dependent on honest governments. I do tend to believe Italy.

Here’s another report posted in response claiming report false.

The second screen shows Italy at 6.2 mortality.


Here’s a sobering inside an Italian hospital view written by a Doctor. Perhaps this account explains the huge mortality rate?
Italy’s hospitals are working at 200% capacity with just coronavirus patients.


Stay home for a bit, stay safe., help keep our hospitals from becoming overwhelmed if you’re high risk.

Why Isn't Kirkland Spraying It's Streets? It's Nursing Homes?

Why don’t we see any spraying in outbreak areas in the US?

U.S. disinfectant maker boosts output to ship to China

Decon7 Systems is stepping up production of a powerful disinfectant at six facilities, from three, to fill surging demand from hospitals in China grappling with a virus epidemic, the firm’s founder, Joe Drake, told Reuters on Monday.
The Scottsdale, Arizona company, which supplies major food processors and poultry farms in the United States, started shipping its hydrogen peroxide-based product to China last year to decontaminate farms infected with deadly African swine fever.

China’s huge disinfectant spraying seems to be working as new case numbers are declining (hopefully true)


China spraying all transport vehicles including planes

So what’s in those tanks? If you read the info beneath the YouTube video, mostly bleach & water.

Other countries that spray are seeing positive results. Where is our our army of sprayers? Massive trucks spraying?

South Korea





We are not taking drastic enough steps to slow down the spread of Covid-19

Please stay home & be cautious when out and about

Important reports from abroad

The Math: The Case for Social Distancing Even Quarantines

Terrifying Italian Doctor Covid-19 Report

New Report: 3 Feet Social Distancing Not Working!

Please stay home as much as you can so we can slow the spread and not overwhelm our local health care systems!

New Report: 3 Feet Social Distancing Not Working!

Coronavirus can travel twice as far as official ‘safe distance’ and stay in air for 30 minutes, Chinese study finds


Finally! This explains the massive tank trucks and hazmat suited armies of workers spraying every square inch of roads, airports, cars driving by, the sides of buildings - offices filled with workers -everything!

Spraying the air!

Wearing hazmat suits!

Not just cleaning women wiping several airplane trays with one Clorox Wipe wearing little protection! 🤯🤯🤯 America 🤯🤯🤯

In short, a virus filled sneeze can linger in the air for 30 minutes! And live for days on things like salad bars, buffets, & produce! according to this study.

Authorities advise people to stay 1-2 metres apart, but researchers found that a bus passenger infected fellow travellers sitting 4.5 metres away

The scientists behind the research said their investigation also highlighted the importance of wearing face masks because of the length of time it can linger

Sadly, after the published study was released, it was censored; however, it was captured and released by others.

Again, for high risk individuals of any age, please read and follow the recommendations. Actually, stay home as much as possible as this virus peaks in the upcoming three months.

Maybe beg your local governments to take extraordinary steps to disinfect your area!

Here is a report from an Italian Doctor depicting the medical disaster for high risk patients in Italy’s overwhelmed medical system. High risk patients are not treated!

An excerpt:

5/ Patients above 65 or younger with comorbidities are not even assessed by ITU, I am not saying not tubed, I’m saying not assessed and no ITU staff attends when they arrest. Staff are working as much as they can but they are starting to get sick and are emotionally overwhelmed.

6/ My friends call me in tears because they see people dying in front of them and they con only offer some oxygen. Ortho and pathologists are being given a leaflet and sent to see patients on NIV. PLEASE STOP, READ THIS AGAIN AND THINK.


Lastly, this article explains the speed of spread & fears of overwhelming medical services.

HELP SLOW the spread!


The Math: Dire Warnings Reposted w/New Info

It is time to stay home if you can! Read new links & this report

MATH - The following analytics highlights the exponential coronavirus disaster about to explode BEFORE MAY and overwhelm USA’s woefully unprepared medical capacity to treat coronavirus patient load UNLESS we each commit to social distancing for a few weeks to SLOW DOWN the spread.

The Task Teams in your area need this information ASAP so pass it along.

In a nutshell, we can do our part via social distancing to slow down the spread of this virus to avoid overwhelming US medical capacity. This graph proves this point


Or see graph proving how we can each help avoid overwhelming medical capacity here for non-twitter users


Without social distancing The Math proves the risks of overwhelming medical capacity

BUT WAIT! New Report out of China

Coronavirus can travel twice as far as official ‘safe distance’ and stay in air for 30 minutes, Chinese study finds


AND this report of the medical disasters unfolding as reported by an Italian Doctor


The following is a Twitter report by Liz Specht, a PhD scientist

The Math

I think most people aren’t aware of the risk of systemic healthcare failure due to #COVID19 because they simply haven’t run the numbers yet. Let’s talk math. 1/n

Let’s conservatively assume that there are 2,000 current cases in the US today, March 6th. This is about 8x the number of confirmed (lab-diagnosed) cases. We know there is substantial under-Dx due to lack of test kits; I’ll address implications later of under-/over-estimate. 2/n

We can expect that we’ll continue to see a doubling of cases every 6 days (this is a typical doubling time across several epidemiological studies). Here I mean *actual* cases. Confirmed cases may appear to rise faster in the short term due to new test kit rollouts. 3/n

We’re looking at about 1M US cases by the end of April, 2M by ~May 5, 4M by ~May 11, and so on. Exponentials are hard to grasp, but this is how they go. 4/n

As the healthcare system begins to saturate under this case load, it will become increasingly hard to detect, track, and contain new transmission chains. In absence of extreme interventions, this likely won’t slow significantly until hitting >>1% of susceptible population. 5/n

What does a case load of this size mean for healthcare system? We’ll examine just two factors — hospital beds and masks — among many, many other things that will be impacted. 6/n

The US has about 2.8 hospital beds per 1000 people. With a population of 330M, this is ~1M beds. At any given time, 65% of those beds are already occupied. That leaves about 330k beds available nationwide (perhaps a bit fewer this time of year with regular flu season, etc). 7/n

Let’s trust Italy’s numbers and assume that about 10% of cases are serious enough to require hospitalization. (Keep in mind that for many patients, hospitalization lasts for *weeks* — in other words, turnover will be *very* slow as beds fill with COVID19 patients). 8/n

By this estimate, by about May 8th, all open hospital beds in the US will be filled. (This says nothing, of course, about whether these beds are suitable for isolation of patients with a highly infectious virus.) 9/n

If we’re wrong by a factor of two regarding the fraction of severe cases, that only changes the timeline of bed saturation by 6 days in either direction. If 20% of cases require hospitalization, we run out of beds by ~May 2nd. 10/n

If only 5% of cases require it, we can make it until ~May 14th. 2.5% gets us to May 20th. This, of course, assumes that there is no uptick in demand for beds from *other* (non-COVID19) causes, which seems like a dubious assumption. 11/n

As healthcare system becomes increasingly burdened, Rx shortages, etc, people w/ chronic conditions that are normally well-managed may find themselves slipping into severe states of medical distress requiring intensive care & hospitalization. But let’s ignore that for now. 12/n

Alright, so that’s beds. Now masks. Feds say we have a national stockpile of 12M N95 masks and 30M surgical masks (which are not ideal, but better than nothing). 13/n

There are about 18M healthcare workers in the US. Let’s assume only 6M HCW are working on any given day. (This is likely an underestimate as most people work most days of the week, but again, I’m playing conservative at every turn.) 14/n

As COVID19 cases saturate virtually every state and county, which seems likely to happen any day now, it will soon be irresponsible for all HCWs to not wear a mask. These HCWs would burn through N95 stockpile in 2 days if each HCW only got ONE mask per day. 15/n

One per day would be neither sanitary nor pragmatic, though this is indeed what we saw in Wuhan, with HCWs collapsing on their shift from dehydration because they were trying to avoid changing their PPE suits as they cannot be reused. 16/n

How quickly could we ramp up production of new masks? Not very fast at all. The vast majority are manufactured overseas, almost all in China. Even when manufactured here in US, the raw materials are predominantly from overseas... again, predominantly from China. 17/n

Keep in mind that all countries globally will be going through the exact same crises and shortages simultaneously. We can’t force trade in our favor. 18/n

Now consider how these 2 factors – bed and mask shortages – compound each other’s severity. Full hospitals + few masks + HCWs running around between beds without proper PPE = very bad mix. 19/n

HCWs are already getting infected even w/ access to full PPE. In the face of PPE limitations this severe, it’s only a matter of time. HCWs will start dropping from the workforce for weeks at a time, leading to a shortage of HCWs that then further compounds both issues above. 20/n

We could go on and on about thousands of factors – # of ventilators, or even simple things like saline drip bags. You see where this is going. 21/n

Importantly, I cannot stress this enough: even if I’m wrong – even VERY wrong – about core assumptions like % of severe cases or current case #, it only changes the timeline by days or weeks. This is how exponential growth in an immunologically naïve population works. 22/n

Undeserved panic does no one any good. But neither does ill-informed complacency. It’s wrong to assuage the public by saying “only 2% will die.” People aren’t adequately grasping the national and global systemic burden wrought by this swift-moving of a disease. 23/n

I’m an engineer. This is what my mind does all day: I run back-of-the-envelope calculations to try to estimate order-of-magnitude impacts. I’ve been on high alarm about this disease since ~Jan 19 after reading clinical indicators in the first papers emerging from Wuhan. 24/n

Nothing in the last 6 weeks has dampened my alarm in the slightest. To the contrary, we’re seeing abject refusal of many countries to adequately respond or prepare. Of course some of these estimates will be wrong, even substantially wrong. 25/n

But I have no reason to think they’ll be orders-of-magnitude wrong. Even if your personal risk of death is very, very low, don’t mock decisions like canceling events or closing workplaces as undue “panic”. 26/n

These measures are the bare minimum we should be doing to try to shift the peak – to slow the rise in cases so that healthcare systems are less overwhelmed. Each day that we can delay an extra case is a big win for the HC system. 27/n

And yes, you really should prepare to buckle down for a bit. All services and supply chains will be impacted. Why risk the stress of being ill-prepared? 28/n

Worst case, I’m massively wrong and you now have a huge bag of rice and black beans to burn through over the next few months and enough Robitussin to trip out. 29/n

One more thought: you’ve probably seen multiple respected epidemiologists have estimated that 20-70% of world will be infected within the next year. If you use 6-day doubling rate I mentioned above, we land at ~2-6 billion infected by sometime in July of this year. 30/n

Obviously I think the doubling time will start to slow once a sizeable fraction of the population has been infected, simply because of herd immunity and a smaller susceptible population. 31/n

But take the scenarios above (full beds, no PPE, etc, at just 1% of the US population infected) and stretch them out over just a couple extra months. 32/n

That timeline roughly fits with consensus end-game numbers from these highly esteemed epidemiologists. Again, we’re talking about discrepancies of mere days or weeks one direction or another, but not disagreements in the overall magnitude of the challenge. 33/n

This is not some hypothetical, fear-mongering, worst-case scenario. This is reality, as far as anyone can tell with the current available data. 34/n

That’s all for now. Standard disclaimers apply: I’m a PhD biologist but *not* an epidemiologist. Thoughts my own. Yadda yadda. Stay safe out there. /end

Addendum: to anyone who found this useful or interesting, highly recommend you follow @trvrb who actually does modeling and forecasting for a living. This thread is a great place to start: twitter.com/trvrb/status/1…

Lastly, SLOWING the spread has to be our collective goal! Please do your part.

Collectively, we can SAVE LIVES!

Here’s directives from Kings County, Washington State

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Public Health recommendations to protect our community


Terrifying Italian Doctor Covid-19 Report

The following report is the worst case scenario I have envisioned from the beginning of the coronavirus outbreak.

I’m just the messenger here 😭😭😭

Here is my tweet from 3/1/2020

“I’ve decided to leave the ventilators for younger people. Won’t seek extreme care if sick. But I put myself in isolation on Thursday.”

The following is a disturbing reality unfolding in Italy from a Doctor trying to warn the world.

Please be forewarned! The following is an account of our worst fears UNLESS we each do our part to SLOW DOWN the Spread. Stay home if you can!

Many acronyms are used because Twitter. Here are their meanings:


Copy/pasted from twitter reported by Jason Van Shoor @jasonvanshoor - an anesthesiologist from the UK

From a well respected friend and intensivist/A&E consultant who is currently in northern Italy:

1/ ‘I feel the pressure to give you a quick personal update about what is happening in Italy, and also give some quick direct advice about what you should do.

2/ First, Lumbardy is the most developed region in Italy and it has a extraordinary good healthcare, I have worked in Italy, UK and Aus and don’t make the mistake to think that what is happening is happening in a 3rd world country.

3/ The current situation is difficult to imagine and numbers do not explain things at all. Our hospitals are overwhelmed by Covid-19, they are running 200% capacity

4/ We’ve stopped all routine, all ORs have been converted to ITUs and they are now diverting or not treating all other emergencies like trauma or strokes. There are hundreds of pts with severe resp failure and many of them do not have access to anything above a reservoir mask.

5/ Patients above 65 or younger with comorbidities are not even assessed by ITU, I am not saying not tubed, I’m saying not assessed and no ITU staff attends when they arrest. Staff are working as much as they can but they are starting to get sick and are emotionally overwhelmed.

6/ My friends call me in tears because they see people dying in front of them and they con only offer some oxygen. Ortho and pathologists are being given a leaflet and sent to see patients on NIV. PLEASE STOP, READ THIS AGAIN AND THINK.

7/ We have seen the same pattern in different areas a week apart, and there is no reason that in a few weeks it won’t be the same everywhere, this is the pattern:

8/ Stage 1:
A few positive cases, first mild measures, people are told to avoid ED but still hang out in groups, everyone says not to panick

Stage 2:
Some moderate resp failures and a few severe ones that need tube, but regular access to ED is significantly reduced so everything looks great

9/ Stage 3:
Tons of patients with moderate resp failure, that overtime deteriorate to saturate ICUs first, then NIVs, then CPAP hoods, then even O2.

Stage 4:
Staff gets sick so it gets difficult to cover for shifts, mortality spikes also from all other causes that can’t be treated properly.

10/ Everything about how to treat them is online but the only things that will make a difference are: do not be afraid of massively strict measures to keep people safe,

11/ if governments won’t do this at least keep your family safe, your loved ones with history of cancer or diabetes or any transplant will not be tubed if they need it even if they are young.

By safe I mean YOU do not attend them and YOU decide who does and YOU teach them how to.

12/ Another typical attitude is read and listen to people saying things like this and think “that’s bad dude” and then go out for dinner because you think you’ll be safe.

13/ We have seen it, you won’t be if you don’t take it seriously.

I really hope it won’t be as bad as here but prepare.

*****If a recent China report true, even self-distancing won’t work****

Coronavirus can travel twice as far as official ‘safe distance’ and stay in air for 30 minutes, Chinese study finds


I’m still home. At 72 this week, I don’t mind and even grateful ☺️


So a lady released from quarantine in Texas said

“We were tested 2x/day”*

There are 3500 passengers on Oakland bound Princess ship. Let’s do the math

3500 x 2 test/day x 14 days

Equals 98,000 test kits for just this ship! Needed on Monday. Let us hope those with symptoms don’t travel and are treated first.

Will all be tested before leaving the ship?

Our Surgeon General spewed
Memorized taking points and didn’t seem to be in the details loop regarding the Princess ship on Sunday AM TV FAIL 🤯

The quarantined lady was interviewed on CNN I think. 🤷🏻‍♀️

Watched a lot of different reports today.

You really have to listen closely to learn little important details.

So what if a quarantined person with proven exposure is tested at least once daily for 14 days, as it can take a couple of weeks for coronavirus to manifest.

Put into perspective:

If only 20,000,000 of the 350 million Americans are tested once a day for 14 days we would need

280,000,000 tests kits or 280 Million tests now.

Let’s divide that by 50 states

Each state would need 5,600,000 test kits.

Is this possible?

At this point, I doubt America will gear up for anything close to adequate testing any time soon.

President Lacksadalsicle will defer testing or lack thereof, along with blame, to state and local health department’s.

Also revealed on Richard Engle’s show is the possibility of getting Covid-19 more than once until a vaccine works. That will require more testing to keep school children safe for approximately 2 years.

Sorry to be a downer, but I prefer statistical probability over wishful thinking.

The probability of truly adequate testing & treatment in America is slim until we have leadership in DC that believes in non-profit, scientific solutions.

More important to note is the reality that there is no medicine to treat this viral pneumonia, only untested antivirals including hope for some aids meds. How much would they cost? Will Medicaid pay for them. Medicare?

We do not have that leadership now.

We have the Queen of Hearts threatening “Off with his/her head” if he/she utters a word The Queen doesn’t agree with.

So now is a good time to strive for a very healthy lifestyle

And GOTV Blue


Grab a Tissue

My mom‘s example taught me how not to fear death. The following is her story. It still brings tears of joy 15 years later

I wrote the following before the magic & mysteries of her passing faded into more vague memory.

I share this with a heart full of hope this true story helps to ease others as we face this new, threatening virus outbreak.



We knew Mom had ovarian cancer
metastasized throughout.

She was 84 and still sharp as a tack.
She was blessed with no suffering.
A miracle, of sorts.

Mom only took one pain pill during the 4 months she was quietly ill.

She never complained, not even once.
No tears, no fear, peaceful and thankful
for all I would do.

A total joy to care for.

How fortunate I was to have a whole year with her. We lived 2,500 miles away until my other sibling passed away 5 months prior to mom’s diagnosis. I took her to my home after his funeral.

We healed all the Mommy/Daughter stuff.

They don't make many women like Mom anymore: stalwart, dignified, and happy to endure.

Here's what happened 2 days before her peaceful passing in my home:

We were with her, my daughter, grandkids, and I, preparing her for bed when she looked up to the ceiling and said

"Why is there a hole in my ceiling, and who are all these people coming through."

That was Wednesday.

The next day, Thursday eve, I was prompted to ask her what her dream meal would be. I then ran to the store, bought the fish and prepared her desired dish.

My friend brought over a bunch of movies for a dinner/movie treat.

A girls night, cozy and carefree.

My mom picked Gone With the Wind.

She sat up, as cheery as could be, ate all her dinner and finished the movie at 11:00PM.

She looked like the picture of health.

I was prompted to kneel at her feet as we shared a red wine treat.

I toasted her and thanked her for being a great mom, and chirped memories of her efforts I adored like her famous spaghetti and lobster sauce prepared as my chosen meal on my birthdays, and the clothes she would lovingly sew, to name but a few.

We laughed, loved, and reminisced. I made sure she knew in my heart she would always abide.

And as I prepared her for bed, I sat her before me and was prompted to say:

"Mom, you don't have to worry about me,
I'll be fine when you are gone."

For the first time in my life, I watched my staunch, German mom weep as she blurted so very clearly:

"But I do worry about you. You will be all alone."

I said "No mom, I have a lovely daughter, too” prompting two tear soaked grins.

I held my mom, as if she were a child, and gave her permission to reunite with her son and my dad, and, yes, we both felt very sad as we sat there and quietly cried.

Neither of us knew that tomorrow she would die.

Just writing this makes my eyes cry.

The next morning when I went in to help her dress for breakfast, there was mom, with the biggest, childlike smile I had ever seen from her.

She was glowing, her skin as pink and beautiful as a newborn, except for the wrinkles.

But she couldn't talk. I asked her to squeeze my hand once for Yes, and Twice for no, but no response.

She just kept looking around the room smiling and glowing, as if the room was filled with familiar people.

There is no word to describe the elation she was obviously feeling.

I swear this to be true!

I called the Hospice Center And the nurse came over.

By the time she arrived, Mom seemed to have left although she laid there for another 18 hours peacefully before passing rasping with each breath.

And, of course, she waited for me to take a quick 5AM nap to take her leave.

Kind to the end, she spared my feelings. She was a very private person.

I awoke, and she was gone.

My daughter, who had been with us all day, called within minutes from her nearby home.

She said "Mom, is Grammy gone?

I said "Yes" within the last half hour.

And then she shared what happened in her sleep.

She dreamed that her Grammy visited.
She awoke, and felt her hand being held
And her snuggling little boy sat up and said "Grammy is here."

Children, so dear, can see.

Nothing can convince my daughter and 4 year old grandson that their Grammy didn't drop in to say Good Bye.

The look of sheer joy on mom's face that morning, and the events just prior left me believing with no reservations that there is more when we pass than a loud slamming door.

And as much as I enjoy life, both the joy and the strife, what Mom taught me that day gives me hope.

That one day, when my spirit is called home, I hope that there will be a hole in my ceiling and my mom will drop in to guide me to the other side.

Mom converted my Faith into Knowledge.

I share this because these true events
improved my enjoyment of life.

I pray they give another solace and hope, too.

And, if what Mom taught me is true, there is more than a chance that we will all be reunited in a better place.

There, I look forward to seeing or meeting you, too!

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