HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » OhNo-Really » Journal
Page: « Prev 1 ... 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 ... 38 Next »

OhNo-Really

Profile Information

Member since: Wed Jun 7, 2017, 08:20 AM
Number of posts: 3,552

Journal Archives

New Report: 3 Feet Social Distancing Not Working!


Coronavirus can travel twice as far as official Ďsafe distanceí and stay in air for 30 minutes, Chinese study finds


https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3074351/coronavirus-can-travel-twice-far-official-safe-distance-and-stay

Finally! This explains the massive tank trucks and hazmat suited armies of workers spraying every square inch of roads, airports, cars driving by, the sides of buildings - offices filled with workers -everything!

Spraying the air!

Wearing hazmat suits!

Not just cleaning women wiping several airplane trays with one Clorox Wipe wearing little protection! 🤯🤯🤯 America 🤯🤯🤯

In short, a virus filled sneeze can linger in the air for 30 minutes! And live for days on things like salad bars, buffets, & produce! according to this study.

Authorities advise people to stay 1-2 metres apart, but researchers found that a bus passenger infected fellow travellers sitting 4.5 metres away

The scientists behind the research said their investigation also highlighted the importance of wearing face masks because of the length of time it can linger


Sadly, after the published study was released, it was censored; however, it was captured and released by others.

Again, for high risk individuals of any age, please read and follow the recommendations. Actually, stay home as much as possible as this virus peaks in the upcoming three months.

Maybe beg your local governments to take extraordinary steps to disinfect your area!

Here is a report from an Italian Doctor depicting the medical disaster for high risk patients in Italyís overwhelmed medical system. High risk patients are not treated!

An excerpt:

5/ Patients above 65 or younger with comorbidities are not even assessed by ITU, I am not saying not tubed, Iím saying not assessed and no ITU staff attends when they arrest. Staff are working as much as they can but they are starting to get sick and are emotionally overwhelmed.

6/ My friends call me in tears because they see people dying in front of them and they con only offer some oxygen. Ortho and pathologists are being given a leaflet and sent to see patients on NIV. PLEASE STOP, READ THIS AGAIN AND THINK.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213066858

Lastly, this article explains the speed of spread & fears of overwhelming medical services.

HELP SLOW the spread!
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213067130

Namaste
✨✨🙏✨✨

The Math: Dire Warnings Reposted w/New Info

It is time to stay home if you can! Read new links & this report

MATH - The following analytics highlights the exponential coronavirus disaster about to explode BEFORE MAY and overwhelm USAís woefully unprepared medical capacity to treat coronavirus patient load UNLESS we each commit to social distancing for a few weeks to SLOW DOWN the spread.

The Task Teams in your area need this information ASAP so pass it along.

In a nutshell, we can do our part via social distancing to slow down the spread of this virus to avoid overwhelming US medical capacity. This graph proves this point

https://twitter.com/lizspecht/status/1236107017086894080

Or see graph proving how we can each help avoid overwhelming medical capacity here for non-twitter users
https://flic.kr/p/2iBAwwB

TAKE A TIME OUT FOR TEAM USA!

Without social distancing The Math proves the risks of overwhelming medical capacity

BUT WAIT! New Report out of China

Coronavirus can travel twice as far as official Ďsafe distanceí and stay in air for 30 minutes, Chinese study finds

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3074351/coronavirus-can-travel-twice-far-official-safe-distance-and-stay

AND this report of the medical disasters unfolding as reported by an Italian Doctor

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213066858

The following is a Twitter report by Liz Specht, a PhD scientist

The Math

I think most people arenít aware of the risk of systemic healthcare failure due to #COVID19 because they simply havenít run the numbers yet. Letís talk math. 1/n

Letís conservatively assume that there are 2,000 current cases in the US today, March 6th. This is about 8x the number of confirmed (lab-diagnosed) cases. We know there is substantial under-Dx due to lack of test kits; Iíll address implications later of under-/over-estimate. 2/n

We can expect that weíll continue to see a doubling of cases every 6 days (this is a typical doubling time across several epidemiological studies). Here I mean *actual* cases. Confirmed cases may appear to rise faster in the short term due to new test kit rollouts. 3/n

Weíre looking at about 1M US cases by the end of April, 2M by ~May 5, 4M by ~May 11, and so on. Exponentials are hard to grasp, but this is how they go. 4/n

As the healthcare system begins to saturate under this case load, it will become increasingly hard to detect, track, and contain new transmission chains. In absence of extreme interventions, this likely wonít slow significantly until hitting >>1% of susceptible population. 5/n

What does a case load of this size mean for healthcare system? Weíll examine just two factors ó hospital beds and masks ó among many, many other things that will be impacted. 6/n

The US has about 2.8 hospital beds per 1000 people. With a population of 330M, this is ~1M beds. At any given time, 65% of those beds are already occupied. That leaves about 330k beds available nationwide (perhaps a bit fewer this time of year with regular flu season, etc). 7/n

Letís trust Italyís numbers and assume that about 10% of cases are serious enough to require hospitalization. (Keep in mind that for many patients, hospitalization lasts for *weeks* ó in other words, turnover will be *very* slow as beds fill with COVID19 patients). 8/n

By this estimate, by about May 8th, all open hospital beds in the US will be filled. (This says nothing, of course, about whether these beds are suitable for isolation of patients with a highly infectious virus.) 9/n

If weíre wrong by a factor of two regarding the fraction of severe cases, that only changes the timeline of bed saturation by 6 days in either direction. If 20% of cases require hospitalization, we run out of beds by ~May 2nd. 10/n

If only 5% of cases require it, we can make it until ~May 14th. 2.5% gets us to May 20th. This, of course, assumes that there is no uptick in demand for beds from *other* (non-COVID19) causes, which seems like a dubious assumption. 11/n

As healthcare system becomes increasingly burdened, Rx shortages, etc, people w/ chronic conditions that are normally well-managed may find themselves slipping into severe states of medical distress requiring intensive care & hospitalization. But letís ignore that for now. 12/n

Alright, so thatís beds. Now masks. Feds say we have a national stockpile of 12M N95 masks and 30M surgical masks (which are not ideal, but better than nothing). 13/n

There are about 18M healthcare workers in the US. Letís assume only 6M HCW are working on any given day. (This is likely an underestimate as most people work most days of the week, but again, Iím playing conservative at every turn.) 14/n

As COVID19 cases saturate virtually every state and county, which seems likely to happen any day now, it will soon be irresponsible for all HCWs to not wear a mask. These HCWs would burn through N95 stockpile in 2 days if each HCW only got ONE mask per day. 15/n

One per day would be neither sanitary nor pragmatic, though this is indeed what we saw in Wuhan, with HCWs collapsing on their shift from dehydration because they were trying to avoid changing their PPE suits as they cannot be reused. 16/n

How quickly could we ramp up production of new masks? Not very fast at all. The vast majority are manufactured overseas, almost all in China. Even when manufactured here in US, the raw materials are predominantly from overseas... again, predominantly from China. 17/n

Keep in mind that all countries globally will be going through the exact same crises and shortages simultaneously. We canít force trade in our favor. 18/n

Now consider how these 2 factors Ė bed and mask shortages Ė compound each otherís severity. Full hospitals + few masks + HCWs running around between beds without proper PPE = very bad mix. 19/n

HCWs are already getting infected even w/ access to full PPE. In the face of PPE limitations this severe, itís only a matter of time. HCWs will start dropping from the workforce for weeks at a time, leading to a shortage of HCWs that then further compounds both issues above. 20/n

We could go on and on about thousands of factors Ė # of ventilators, or even simple things like saline drip bags. You see where this is going. 21/n

Importantly, I cannot stress this enough: even if Iím wrong Ė even VERY wrong Ė about core assumptions like % of severe cases or current case #, it only changes the timeline by days or weeks. This is how exponential growth in an immunologically naÔve population works. 22/n

Undeserved panic does no one any good. But neither does ill-informed complacency. Itís wrong to assuage the public by saying ďonly 2% will die.Ē People arenít adequately grasping the national and global systemic burden wrought by this swift-moving of a disease. 23/n

Iím an engineer. This is what my mind does all day: I run back-of-the-envelope calculations to try to estimate order-of-magnitude impacts. Iíve been on high alarm about this disease since ~Jan 19 after reading clinical indicators in the first papers emerging from Wuhan. 24/n

Nothing in the last 6 weeks has dampened my alarm in the slightest. To the contrary, weíre seeing abject refusal of many countries to adequately respond or prepare. Of course some of these estimates will be wrong, even substantially wrong. 25/n

But I have no reason to think theyíll be orders-of-magnitude wrong. Even if your personal risk of death is very, very low, donít mock decisions like canceling events or closing workplaces as undue ďpanicĒ. 26/n

These measures are the bare minimum we should be doing to try to shift the peak Ė to slow the rise in cases so that healthcare systems are less overwhelmed. Each day that we can delay an extra case is a big win for the HC system. 27/n

And yes, you really should prepare to buckle down for a bit. All services and supply chains will be impacted. Why risk the stress of being ill-prepared? 28/n

Worst case, Iím massively wrong and you now have a huge bag of rice and black beans to burn through over the next few months and enough Robitussin to trip out. 29/n

One more thought: youíve probably seen multiple respected epidemiologists have estimated that 20-70% of world will be infected within the next year. If you use 6-day doubling rate I mentioned above, we land at ~2-6 billion infected by sometime in July of this year. 30/n

Obviously I think the doubling time will start to slow once a sizeable fraction of the population has been infected, simply because of herd immunity and a smaller susceptible population. 31/n

But take the scenarios above (full beds, no PPE, etc, at just 1% of the US population infected) and stretch them out over just a couple extra months. 32/n

That timeline roughly fits with consensus end-game numbers from these highly esteemed epidemiologists. Again, weíre talking about discrepancies of mere days or weeks one direction or another, but not disagreements in the overall magnitude of the challenge. 33/n

This is not some hypothetical, fear-mongering, worst-case scenario. This is reality, as far as anyone can tell with the current available data. 34/n

Thatís all for now. Standard disclaimers apply: Iím a PhD biologist but *not* an epidemiologist. Thoughts my own. Yadda yadda. Stay safe out there. /end

Addendum: to anyone who found this useful or interesting, highly recommend you follow @trvrb who actually does modeling and forecasting for a living. This thread is a great place to start: twitter.com/trvrb/status/1Ö

Lastly, SLOWING the spread has to be our collective goal! Please do your part.

Collectively, we can SAVE LIVES!

Hereís directives from Kings County, Washington State

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Public Health recommendations to protect our community

https://www.kingcounty.gov/depts/health/communicable-diseases/disease-control/novel-coronavirus/protection.aspx


Terrifying Italian Doctor Covid-19 Report

The following report is the worst case scenario I have envisioned from the beginning of the coronavirus outbreak.

Iím just the messenger here 😭😭😭

Here is my tweet from 3/1/2020

ďIíve decided to leave the ventilators for younger people. Wonít seek extreme care if sick. But I put myself in isolation on Thursday.Ē

The following is a disturbing reality unfolding in Italy from a Doctor trying to warn the world.

Please be forewarned! The following is an account of our worst fears UNLESS we each do our part to SLOW DOWN the Spread. Stay home if you can!

Many acronyms are used because Twitter. Here are their meanings:

https://twitter.com/bluesnebula/status/1237190000153743362

Copy/pasted from twitter reported by Jason Van Shoor @jasonvanshoor - an anesthesiologist from the UK

From a well respected friend and intensivist/A&E consultant who is currently in northern Italy:

1/ ĎI feel the pressure to give you a quick personal update about what is happening in Italy, and also give some quick direct advice about what you should do.

2/ First, Lumbardy is the most developed region in Italy and it has a extraordinary good healthcare, I have worked in Italy, UK and Aus and donít make the mistake to think that what is happening is happening in a 3rd world country.

3/ The current situation is difficult to imagine and numbers do not explain things at all. Our hospitals are overwhelmed by Covid-19, they are running 200% capacity

4/ Weíve stopped all routine, all ORs have been converted to ITUs and they are now diverting or not treating all other emergencies like trauma or strokes. There are hundreds of pts with severe resp failure and many of them do not have access to anything above a reservoir mask.

5/ Patients above 65 or younger with comorbidities are not even assessed by ITU, I am not saying not tubed, Iím saying not assessed and no ITU staff attends when they arrest. Staff are working as much as they can but they are starting to get sick and are emotionally overwhelmed.

6/ My friends call me in tears because they see people dying in front of them and they con only offer some oxygen. Ortho and pathologists are being given a leaflet and sent to see patients on NIV. PLEASE STOP, READ THIS AGAIN AND THINK.

7/ We have seen the same pattern in different areas a week apart, and there is no reason that in a few weeks it wonít be the same everywhere, this is the pattern:

8/ Stage 1:
A few positive cases, first mild measures, people are told to avoid ED but still hang out in groups, everyone says not to panick

Stage 2:
Some moderate resp failures and a few severe ones that need tube, but regular access to ED is significantly reduced so everything looks great

9/ Stage 3:
Tons of patients with moderate resp failure, that overtime deteriorate to saturate ICUs first, then NIVs, then CPAP hoods, then even O2.

Stage 4:
Staff gets sick so it gets difficult to cover for shifts, mortality spikes also from all other causes that canít be treated properly.

10/ Everything about how to treat them is online but the only things that will make a difference are: do not be afraid of massively strict measures to keep people safe,

11/ if governments wonít do this at least keep your family safe, your loved ones with history of cancer or diabetes or any transplant will not be tubed if they need it even if they are young.

By safe I mean YOU do not attend them and YOU decide who does and YOU teach them how to.

12/ Another typical attitude is read and listen to people saying things like this and think ďthatís bad dudeĒ and then go out for dinner because you think youíll be safe.

13/ We have seen it, you wonít be if you donít take it seriously.

I really hope it wonít be as bad as here but prepare.

*****If a recent China report true, even self-distancing wonít work****

Coronavirus can travel twice as far as official Ďsafe distanceí and stay in air for 30 minutes, Chinese study finds


https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3074351/coronavirus-can-travel-twice-far-official-safe-distance-and-stay

Iím still home. At 72 this week, I donít mind and even grateful ☺️

🚨 MEDIA ALERT 🚨

So a lady released from quarantine in Texas said

ďWe were tested 2x/dayĒ*

There are 3500 passengers on Oakland bound Princess ship. Letís do the math

3500 x 2 test/day x 14 days

Equals 98,000 test kits for just this ship! Needed on Monday. Let us hope those with symptoms donít travel and are treated first.

Will all be tested before leaving the ship?

Our Surgeon General spewed
Memorized taking points and didnít seem to be in the details loop regarding the Princess ship on Sunday AM TV FAIL 🤯

The quarantined lady was interviewed on CNN I think. 🤷🏻‍♀️

Watched a lot of different reports today.

You really have to listen closely to learn little important details.

So what if a quarantined person with proven exposure is tested at least once daily for 14 days, as it can take a couple of weeks for coronavirus to manifest.

Put into perspective:

If only 20,000,000 of the 350 million Americans are tested once a day for 14 days we would need

280,000,000 tests kits or 280 Million tests now.

Letís divide that by 50 states

Each state would need 5,600,000 test kits.

Is this possible?

At this point, I doubt America will gear up for anything close to adequate testing any time soon.

President Lacksadalsicle will defer testing or lack thereof, along with blame, to state and local health departmentís.

Also revealed on Richard Engleís show is the possibility of getting Covid-19 more than once until a vaccine works. That will require more testing to keep school children safe for approximately 2 years.

Sorry to be a downer, but I prefer statistical probability over wishful thinking.

The probability of truly adequate testing & treatment in America is slim until we have leadership in DC that believes in non-profit, scientific solutions.

More important to note is the reality that there is no medicine to treat this viral pneumonia, only untested antivirals including hope for some aids meds. How much would they cost? Will Medicaid pay for them. Medicare?

We do not have that leadership now.

We have the Queen of Hearts threatening ďOff with his/her headĒ if he/she utters a word The Queen doesnít agree with.

So now is a good time to strive for a very healthy lifestyle

And GOTV Blue

Namaste
✨✨🙏✨✨

Grab a Tissue

My momĎs example taught me how not to fear death. The following is her story. It still brings tears of joy 15 years later

I wrote the following before the magic & mysteries of her passing faded into more vague memory.

I share this with a heart full of hope this true story helps to ease others as we face this new, threatening virus outbreak.

Namaste
✨✨🙏✨✨


MY MOM'S GREATEST GIFT

We knew Mom had ovarian cancer
metastasized throughout.

She was 84 and still sharp as a tack.
She was blessed with no suffering.
A miracle, of sorts.

Mom only took one pain pill during the 4 months she was quietly ill.

She never complained, not even once.
No tears, no fear, peaceful and thankful
for all I would do.

A total joy to care for.

How fortunate I was to have a whole year with her. We lived 2,500 miles away until my other sibling passed away 5 months prior to momís diagnosis. I took her to my home after his funeral.

We healed all the Mommy/Daughter stuff.

They don't make many women like Mom anymore: stalwart, dignified, and happy to endure.

Here's what happened 2 days before her peaceful passing in my home:

We were with her, my daughter, grandkids, and I, preparing her for bed when she looked up to the ceiling and said

"Why is there a hole in my ceiling, and who are all these people coming through."

That was Wednesday.

The next day, Thursday eve, I was prompted to ask her what her dream meal would be. I then ran to the store, bought the fish and prepared her desired dish.

My friend brought over a bunch of movies for a dinner/movie treat.

A girls night, cozy and carefree.

My mom picked Gone With the Wind.

She sat up, as cheery as could be, ate all her dinner and finished the movie at 11:00PM.

She looked like the picture of health.

I was prompted to kneel at her feet as we shared a red wine treat.

I toasted her and thanked her for being a great mom, and chirped memories of her efforts I adored like her famous spaghetti and lobster sauce prepared as my chosen meal on my birthdays, and the clothes she would lovingly sew, to name but a few.

We laughed, loved, and reminisced. I made sure she knew in my heart she would always abide.

And as I prepared her for bed, I sat her before me and was prompted to say:

"Mom, you don't have to worry about me,
I'll be fine when you are gone."

For the first time in my life, I watched my staunch, German mom weep as she blurted so very clearly:

"But I do worry about you. You will be all alone."

I said "No mom, I have a lovely daughter, tooĒ prompting two tear soaked grins.

I held my mom, as if she were a child, and gave her permission to reunite with her son and my dad, and, yes, we both felt very sad as we sat there and quietly cried.

Neither of us knew that tomorrow she would die.

Just writing this makes my eyes cry.

The next morning when I went in to help her dress for breakfast, there was mom, with the biggest, childlike smile I had ever seen from her.

She was glowing, her skin as pink and beautiful as a newborn, except for the wrinkles.

But she couldn't talk. I asked her to squeeze my hand once for Yes, and Twice for no, but no response.

She just kept looking around the room smiling and glowing, as if the room was filled with familiar people.

There is no word to describe the elation she was obviously feeling.

I swear this to be true!

I called the Hospice Center And the nurse came over.

By the time she arrived, Mom seemed to have left although she laid there for another 18 hours peacefully before passing rasping with each breath.

And, of course, she waited for me to take a quick 5AM nap to take her leave.

Kind to the end, she spared my feelings. She was a very private person.

I awoke, and she was gone.

My daughter, who had been with us all day, called within minutes from her nearby home.

She said "Mom, is Grammy gone?

I said "Yes" within the last half hour.

And then she shared what happened in her sleep.

She dreamed that her Grammy visited.
She awoke, and felt her hand being held
And her snuggling little boy sat up and said "Grammy is here."

Children, so dear, can see.

Nothing can convince my daughter and 4 year old grandson that their Grammy didn't drop in to say Good Bye.

The look of sheer joy on mom's face that morning, and the events just prior left me believing with no reservations that there is more when we pass than a loud slamming door.

And as much as I enjoy life, both the joy and the strife, what Mom taught me that day gives me hope.

That one day, when my spirit is called home, I hope that there will be a hole in my ceiling and my mom will drop in to guide me to the other side.

Mom converted my Faith into Knowledge.

I share this because these true events
improved my enjoyment of life.

I pray they give another solace and hope, too.

And, if what Mom taught me is true, there is more than a chance that we will all be reunited in a better place.

There, I look forward to seeing or meeting you, too!

The Math: The Case for Social Distancing Even Quarantines

MATH - The following analytics highlights the exponential coronavirus disaster about to explode BEFORE MAY and overwhelm USAís woefully unprepared medical capacity to treat coronavirus patient load UNLESS we each commit to social distancing for a few weeks to SLOW DOWN the spread.

The Task Teams in your area need this information ASAP so pass it along.

In a nutshell, we can do our part via social distancing to slow down the spread of this virus to avoid overwhelming US medical capacity. This graph proves this point

https://twitter.com/lizspecht/status/1236107017086894080

Or see graph proving how we can each help avoid overwhelming medical capacity here for non-twitter users
https://flic.kr/p/2iBAwwB

TAKE A TIME OUT FOR TEAM USA!

Without social distancing The Math proves the risks of overwhelming medical capacity

The following is a Twitter report by Liz Specht, a PhD scientist


The Math

I think most people arenít aware of the risk of systemic healthcare failure due to #COVID19 because they simply havenít run the numbers yet. Letís talk math. 1/n

Letís conservatively assume that there are 2,000 current cases in the US today, March 6th. This is about 8x the number of confirmed (lab-diagnosed) cases. We know there is substantial under-Dx due to lack of test kits; Iíll address implications later of under-/over-estimate. 2/n

We can expect that weíll continue to see a doubling of cases every 6 days (this is a typical doubling time across several epidemiological studies). Here I mean *actual* cases. Confirmed cases may appear to rise faster in the short term due to new test kit rollouts. 3/n

Weíre looking at about 1M US cases by the end of April, 2M by ~May 5, 4M by ~May 11, and so on. Exponentials are hard to grasp, but this is how they go. 4/n

As the healthcare system begins to saturate under this case load, it will become increasingly hard to detect, track, and contain new transmission chains. In absence of extreme interventions, this likely wonít slow significantly until hitting >>1% of susceptible population. 5/n

What does a case load of this size mean for healthcare system? Weíll examine just two factors ó hospital beds and masks ó among many, many other things that will be impacted. 6/n

The US has about 2.8 hospital beds per 1000 people. With a population of 330M, this is ~1M beds. At any given time, 65% of those beds are already occupied. That leaves about 330k beds available nationwide (perhaps a bit fewer this time of year with regular flu season, etc). 7/n

Letís trust Italyís numbers and assume that about 10% of cases are serious enough to require hospitalization. (Keep in mind that for many patients, hospitalization lasts for *weeks* ó in other words, turnover will be *very* slow as beds fill with COVID19 patients). 8/n

By this estimate, by about May 8th, all open hospital beds in the US will be filled. (This says nothing, of course, about whether these beds are suitable for isolation of patients with a highly infectious virus.) 9/n

If weíre wrong by a factor of two regarding the fraction of severe cases, that only changes the timeline of bed saturation by 6 days in either direction. If 20% of cases require hospitalization, we run out of beds by ~May 2nd. 10/n

If only 5% of cases require it, we can make it until ~May 14th. 2.5% gets us to May 20th. This, of course, assumes that there is no uptick in demand for beds from *other* (non-COVID19) causes, which seems like a dubious assumption. 11/n

As healthcare system becomes increasingly burdened, Rx shortages, etc, people w/ chronic conditions that are normally well-managed may find themselves slipping into severe states of medical distress requiring intensive care & hospitalization. But letís ignore that for now. 12/n

Alright, so thatís beds. Now masks. Feds say we have a national stockpile of 12M N95 masks and 30M surgical masks (which are not ideal, but better than nothing). 13/n

There are about 18M healthcare workers in the US. Letís assume only 6M HCW are working on any given day. (This is likely an underestimate as most people work most days of the week, but again, Iím playing conservative at every turn.) 14/n

As COVID19 cases saturate virtually every state and county, which seems likely to happen any day now, it will soon be irresponsible for all HCWs to not wear a mask. These HCWs would burn through N95 stockpile in 2 days if each HCW only got ONE mask per day. 15/n

One per day would be neither sanitary nor pragmatic, though this is indeed what we saw in Wuhan, with HCWs collapsing on their shift from dehydration because they were trying to avoid changing their PPE suits as they cannot be reused. 16/n

How quickly could we ramp up production of new masks? Not very fast at all. The vast majority are manufactured overseas, almost all in China. Even when manufactured here in US, the raw materials are predominantly from overseas... again, predominantly from China. 17/n

Keep in mind that all countries globally will be going through the exact same crises and shortages simultaneously. We canít force trade in our favor. 18/n

Now consider how these 2 factors Ė bed and mask shortages Ė compound each otherís severity. Full hospitals + few masks + HCWs running around between beds without proper PPE = very bad mix. 19/n

HCWs are already getting infected even w/ access to full PPE. In the face of PPE limitations this severe, itís only a matter of time. HCWs will start dropping from the workforce for weeks at a time, leading to a shortage of HCWs that then further compounds both issues above. 20/n

We could go on and on about thousands of factors Ė # of ventilators, or even simple things like saline drip bags. You see where this is going. 21/n

Importantly, I cannot stress this enough: even if Iím wrong Ė even VERY wrong Ė about core assumptions like % of severe cases or current case #, it only changes the timeline by days or weeks. This is how exponential growth in an immunologically naÔve population works. 22/n

Undeserved panic does no one any good. But neither does ill-informed complacency. Itís wrong to assuage the public by saying ďonly 2% will die.Ē People arenít adequately grasping the national and global systemic burden wrought by this swift-moving of a disease. 23/n

Iím an engineer. This is what my mind does all day: I run back-of-the-envelope calculations to try to estimate order-of-magnitude impacts. Iíve been on high alarm about this disease since ~Jan 19 after reading clinical indicators in the first papers emerging from Wuhan. 24/n

Nothing in the last 6 weeks has dampened my alarm in the slightest. To the contrary, weíre seeing abject refusal of many countries to adequately respond or prepare. Of course some of these estimates will be wrong, even substantially wrong. 25/n

But I have no reason to think theyíll be orders-of-magnitude wrong. Even if your personal risk of death is very, very low, donít mock decisions like canceling events or closing workplaces as undue ďpanicĒ. 26/n

These measures are the bare minimum we should be doing to try to shift the peak Ė to slow the rise in cases so that healthcare systems are less overwhelmed. Each day that we can delay an extra case is a big win for the HC system. 27/n

And yes, you really should prepare to buckle down for a bit. All services and supply chains will be impacted. Why risk the stress of being ill-prepared? 28/n

Worst case, Iím massively wrong and you now have a huge bag of rice and black beans to burn through over the next few months and enough Robitussin to trip out. 29/n

One more thought: youíve probably seen multiple respected epidemiologists have estimated that 20-70% of world will be infected within the next year. If you use 6-day doubling rate I mentioned above, we land at ~2-6 billion infected by sometime in July of this year. 30/n

Obviously I think the doubling time will start to slow once a sizeable fraction of the population has been infected, simply because of herd immunity and a smaller susceptible population. 31/n

But take the scenarios above (full beds, no PPE, etc, at just 1% of the US population infected) and stretch them out over just a couple extra months. 32/n

That timeline roughly fits with consensus end-game numbers from these highly esteemed epidemiologists. Again, weíre talking about discrepancies of mere days or weeks one direction or another, but not disagreements in the overall magnitude of the challenge. 33/n

This is not some hypothetical, fear-mongering, worst-case scenario. This is reality, as far as anyone can tell with the current available data. 34/n

Thatís all for now. Standard disclaimers apply: Iím a PhD biologist but *not* an epidemiologist. Thoughts my own. Yadda yadda. Stay safe out there. /end

Addendum: to anyone who found this useful or interesting, highly recommend you follow @trvrb who actually does modeling and forecasting for a living. This thread is a great place to start: twitter.com/trvrb/status/1Ö

Lastly, SLOWING the spread has to be our collective goal! Please do your part.

Collectively, we can SAVE LIVES!

Hereís directives from Kings County, Washington State

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Public Health recommendations to protect our community

https://www.kingcounty.gov/depts/health/communicable-diseases/disease-control/novel-coronavirus/protection.aspx



The Math - Why We All Need to Cooperate

MATH - The following analytics highlights the exponential coronavirus disaster about to explode BEFORE MAY and overwhelm USAís woefully unprepared medical capacity to treat coronavirus patient load UNLESS we each commit to social distancing for a few weeks to SLOW DOWN the spread.

The Task Teams in your area need this information ASAP so pass it along.

In a nutshell, we can do our part via social distancing to slow down the spread of this virus to avoid overwhelming US medical capacity. This graph proves this point

https://twitter.com/lizspecht/status/1236107017086894080

Or see graph proving how we can each help avoid overwhelming medical capacity here for non-twitter users
https://flic.kr/p/2iBAwwB

TAKE A TIME OUT FOR TEAM USA!

Without social distancing The Math proves the risks of overwhelming medical capacity

The following is a Twitter report by Liz Specht, a PhD scientist


The Math

I think most people arenít aware of the risk of systemic healthcare failure due to #COVID19 because they simply havenít run the numbers yet. Letís talk math. 1/n

Letís conservatively assume that there are 2,000 current cases in the US today, March 6th. This is about 8x the number of confirmed (lab-diagnosed) cases. We know there is substantial under-Dx due to lack of test kits; Iíll address implications later of under-/over-estimate. 2/n

We can expect that weíll continue to see a doubling of cases every 6 days (this is a typical doubling time across several epidemiological studies). Here I mean *actual* cases. Confirmed cases may appear to rise faster in the short term due to new test kit rollouts. 3/n

Weíre looking at about 1M US cases by the end of April, 2M by ~May 5, 4M by ~May 11, and so on. Exponentials are hard to grasp, but this is how they go. 4/n

As the healthcare system begins to saturate under this case load, it will become increasingly hard to detect, track, and contain new transmission chains. In absence of extreme interventions, this likely wonít slow significantly until hitting >>1% of susceptible population. 5/n

What does a case load of this size mean for healthcare system? Weíll examine just two factors ó hospital beds and masks ó among many, many other things that will be impacted. 6/n

The US has about 2.8 hospital beds per 1000 people. With a population of 330M, this is ~1M beds. At any given time, 65% of those beds are already occupied. That leaves about 330k beds available nationwide (perhaps a bit fewer this time of year with regular flu season, etc). 7/n

Letís trust Italyís numbers and assume that about 10% of cases are serious enough to require hospitalization. (Keep in mind that for many patients, hospitalization lasts for *weeks* ó in other words, turnover will be *very* slow as beds fill with COVID19 patients). 8/n

By this estimate, by about May 8th, all open hospital beds in the US will be filled. (This says nothing, of course, about whether these beds are suitable for isolation of patients with a highly infectious virus.) 9/n

If weíre wrong by a factor of two regarding the fraction of severe cases, that only changes the timeline of bed saturation by 6 days in either direction. If 20% of cases require hospitalization, we run out of beds by ~May 2nd. 10/n

If only 5% of cases require it, we can make it until ~May 14th. 2.5% gets us to May 20th. This, of course, assumes that there is no uptick in demand for beds from *other* (non-COVID19) causes, which seems like a dubious assumption. 11/n

As healthcare system becomes increasingly burdened, Rx shortages, etc, people w/ chronic conditions that are normally well-managed may find themselves slipping into severe states of medical distress requiring intensive care & hospitalization. But letís ignore that for now. 12/n

Alright, so thatís beds. Now masks. Feds say we have a national stockpile of 12M N95 masks and 30M surgical masks (which are not ideal, but better than nothing). 13/n

There are about 18M healthcare workers in the US. Letís assume only 6M HCW are working on any given day. (This is likely an underestimate as most people work most days of the week, but again, Iím playing conservative at every turn.) 14/n

As COVID19 cases saturate virtually every state and county, which seems likely to happen any day now, it will soon be irresponsible for all HCWs to not wear a mask. These HCWs would burn through N95 stockpile in 2 days if each HCW only got ONE mask per day. 15/n

One per day would be neither sanitary nor pragmatic, though this is indeed what we saw in Wuhan, with HCWs collapsing on their shift from dehydration because they were trying to avoid changing their PPE suits as they cannot be reused. 16/n

How quickly could we ramp up production of new masks? Not very fast at all. The vast majority are manufactured overseas, almost all in China. Even when manufactured here in US, the raw materials are predominantly from overseas... again, predominantly from China. 17/n

Keep in mind that all countries globally will be going through the exact same crises and shortages simultaneously. We canít force trade in our favor. 18/n

Now consider how these 2 factors Ė bed and mask shortages Ė compound each otherís severity. Full hospitals + few masks + HCWs running around between beds without proper PPE = very bad mix. 19/n

HCWs are already getting infected even w/ access to full PPE. In the face of PPE limitations this severe, itís only a matter of time. HCWs will start dropping from the workforce for weeks at a time, leading to a shortage of HCWs that then further compounds both issues above. 20/n

We could go on and on about thousands of factors Ė # of ventilators, or even simple things like saline drip bags. You see where this is going. 21/n

Importantly, I cannot stress this enough: even if Iím wrong Ė even VERY wrong Ė about core assumptions like % of severe cases or current case #, it only changes the timeline by days or weeks. This is how exponential growth in an immunologically naÔve population works. 22/n

Undeserved panic does no one any good. But neither does ill-informed complacency. Itís wrong to assuage the public by saying ďonly 2% will die.Ē People arenít adequately grasping the national and global systemic burden wrought by this swift-moving of a disease. 23/n

Iím an engineer. This is what my mind does all day: I run back-of-the-envelope calculations to try to estimate order-of-magnitude impacts. Iíve been on high alarm about this disease since ~Jan 19 after reading clinical indicators in the first papers emerging from Wuhan. 24/n

Nothing in the last 6 weeks has dampened my alarm in the slightest. To the contrary, weíre seeing abject refusal of many countries to adequately respond or prepare. Of course some of these estimates will be wrong, even substantially wrong. 25/n

But I have no reason to think theyíll be orders-of-magnitude wrong. Even if your personal risk of death is very, very low, donít mock decisions like canceling events or closing workplaces as undue ďpanicĒ. 26/n

These measures are the bare minimum we should be doing to try to shift the peak Ė to slow the rise in cases so that healthcare systems are less overwhelmed. Each day that we can delay an extra case is a big win for the HC system. 27/n

And yes, you really should prepare to buckle down for a bit. All services and supply chains will be impacted. Why risk the stress of being ill-prepared? 28/n

Worst case, Iím massively wrong and you now have a huge bag of rice and black beans to burn through over the next few months and enough Robitussin to trip out. 29/n

One more thought: youíve probably seen multiple respected epidemiologists have estimated that 20-70% of world will be infected within the next year. If you use 6-day doubling rate I mentioned above, we land at ~2-6 billion infected by sometime in July of this year. 30/n

Obviously I think the doubling time will start to slow once a sizeable fraction of the population has been infected, simply because of herd immunity and a smaller susceptible population. 31/n

But take the scenarios above (full beds, no PPE, etc, at just 1% of the US population infected) and stretch them out over just a couple extra months. 32/n

That timeline roughly fits with consensus end-game numbers from these highly esteemed epidemiologists. Again, weíre talking about discrepancies of mere days or weeks one direction or another, but not disagreements in the overall magnitude of the challenge. 33/n

This is not some hypothetical, fear-mongering, worst-case scenario. This is reality, as far as anyone can tell with the current available data. 34/n

Thatís all for now. Standard disclaimers apply: Iím a PhD biologist but *not* an epidemiologist. Thoughts my own. Yadda yadda. Stay safe out there. /end

Addendum: to anyone who found this useful or interesting, highly recommend you follow @trvrb who actually does modeling and forecasting for a living. This thread is a great place to start: twitter.com/trvrb/status/1Ö

Lastly, SLOWING the spread has to be our collective goal! Please do your part.

Collectively, we can SAVE LIVES!

Hereís directives from Kings County, Washington State

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Public Health recommendations to protect our community

https://www.kingcounty.gov/depts/health/communicable-diseases/disease-control/novel-coronavirus/protection.aspx




The Math

Updated this post to include a non twitter user readable format here

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213054589

The following is woefully lacking. So much for midnight posting 😭😭😭😭

In a 14 tweet explanation of exponential CoronaVirus growth, is seems apparent the US will be in deep shit shortages of everything in less than 90 days

Recommended reading. Share with your state task teams
https://twitter.com/lizspecht/status/1236095180459003909
https://twitter.com/lizspecht/status/1236095182489014273

https://twitter.com/lizspecht/status/1236095182489014273
Click to read the whole analysis.
Information is power. Share with your local pandemic task teams.

Decades of conservatives & for profit medical corporations doing things in the cheap will cost thousands of lives

Time to legislate sufficiency capitalism

Be safe. I am self-isolating painting, exercising, healthy eating, reading & fighting the
Incompetence Cheers 🥂

Scientists Tracking Covid-19 Genome via Twitter!

This is amazing! and fascinating!

Learn how genetic sequencing is used & shared to track spread of coronavirus.

Scientists from around the globe are sharing genome sequencing via Twitter!

Our World-Wide scientists are collaborating including some from the US. I find this hugely comforting.

Hereís our Washington State collaborator Trevor Bedford & his reporting.

Thanks to @seattleflustudy and @UWVirology, we have new genomic data on the spread of #COVID19 in Washington State with 2 new #SARSCoV2 genomes sequenced today, bringing the total number of WA genomes to five. 1/8

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1235432204060131329.html

GISAID - Within Trevorís thread I learned about this centralized virus information sharing site that includes animated tracking maps etc.

Global Genome Reporting - Interactive Maps & Graphs & more here:

https://www.gisaid.org/

Genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV2

This phylogeny shows evolutionary relationships of HCoV-19 viruses from the ongoing novel coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic. All samples are still closely related with few mutations relative to a common ancestor, suggesting a shared common ancestor some time in Nov-Dec 2019.


It appears there is a China connection to the Washington State outbreak

99 Patient CoronaVirus Study Published in the Lancet

In this 1/29/2020 study report we learn some incredible details of the disease & treatment protocols for 99 coronavirus cases.

Call me nerdy, but I like to hear from scientists published in the Lancet.

ďEpidemiological and clinical characteristics of 99 cases of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a descriptive studyĒ

https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2820%2930211-7

Link to above study found at end of this American College of Cardiologists article

ďCardiac Implications of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19)Ē

https://www.acc.org//~/media/Non-Clinical/Files-PDFs-Excel-MS-Word-etc/2020/02/S20028-ACC-Clinical-Bulletin-Coronavirus.pdf


The Lancet has lots of free access Covid-19 articles worthy of perusal.

These articles help fill Trumpís information Blackout

https://www.thelancet.com/coronavirus/correspondence

My simplified takeaway:

✨ Highly contagious

✨ Men at greater risk

❤️ Heart disease at highest risk of serious outcomes

🆘. US citizens being kept in the dark

Iím high risk and have self-isolated with lots of art supplies, books, food, water & heart meds, Hulu Netflix Prime YouTube Reupped Cable News & Jax the eternal 10 year old puppyfied Jack Russell 🐶

Fresh veggies delivered which I bath with tiny titch of bleach, scrub & thoroughly rinse before blanching in boiling water for 3 minutes. Peeled fresh foods the safest.

Be smart, be informed, and please be safe.

Love sparkles for all 🤩😍

✨❤️✨❤️✨❤️✨❤️✨❤️✨❤️✨❤️✨❤️✨

Go to Page: « Prev 1 ... 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 ... 38 Next »