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Quemado

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Member since: Thu May 18, 2017, 08:28 AM
Number of posts: 1,242

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Even the Statue of Liberty is getting in on the fun.

My theory as to why the polls were wrong in 2016 and 2020.

I'm not a statistician, or a pollster, or any kind of expert on polling. This is just my gut feeling/opinion.

As far as I know, a poll does not determine the honesty of a response. There's no requirement to give an honest response to a poll. There's no repercussion to lying to a poll. I think this is what caused the polls in 2016 and 2020 to be not totally accurate.

One of Trump's main characteristics is that he is a liar. His followers don't hold that against him. Trump uses lies to get his way. So, it may be safe to assume that Trump's followers believe lying is OK.

What's the benefit of lying to a poll? My theory is that a certain percentage of Trump supporters lied to the polls in the hope of skewing the results.

Why would they want to skew poll results? Not everyone, but a certain percentage of potential voters pay close attention to the polls.

For example, If you consider yourself a Biden supporter, and you follow the polls, and you see that Biden is up by (for example) 8 points in your state, you may think to yourself: "Biden is going to win my state; I don't need to vote." But that 8 point poll margin in favor of Biden is likely to be skewed because of lying on the part of Trump supporters. And, because of the skewed poll results, some potential voters don't vote because they think Biden is going to win their state.
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