February 23, 2017

Exxon/Rosneft/Blackstone/Trump

After a few hours of web surfing & note taking, I was able to identify a variety of investments/investors who stand to benefit from the lifting of the existing sanctions on Russia -- but also stand to lose if the sanctions are not lifted in a timely manner....

(I also found the trail between the 19.5% and Trump's Blackstone buddies ... only to stumble across the article linked below & learn that I had effectively reinvented the wheel as this connection had already been discovered...)

Yasenevo will likely go to clean up mode
2/15/2017
https://www.blogger.com/blog-this.g

••••••• my findings•••••••
The Exxon component is far greater than just the highly publicized $1billion loss from the Arctic Drilling project that was halted due to the sanctions .....

Timeline/Players:
1998 Tillerson was head of Exxon's
Neftgas Ltd
Neftgas + Rosneft = Sakhalin-1 (Siberian coast)

2006
Tillerson CEO/Pres. Exxon
& Sechin takes over Rosneft

2011
Rosneft + Exxon = Strategic Cooperation Agreement
Explore/Exploit Arctic & Black Sea
* Rosneft subsidiary gets 30% equity in Exxon's La Escalera Ranch project in W.Texas
* Rosneft gets rights to acquire 30% of Exxon Holdings (20 blocks) in Gulf of Mexico
* Rosneft subsidiary RNCardium oil acquires 30% of Exxon's stake in Canada -- Cardium formation to develop tar sands reserve


2012 Neftgas Holdings incorporates (Pável Ilyasov)

2013 Exxon had rights to
11.4 million acres in Russia &
(14.6 million in the US)

2014 Exxon had rights to
63.7 million acres in Russia

Sanctions halted Arctic drilling but did not prohibit acquisition of rights for future projects

Exxon holdings w/ OAO Rosneft include
* Laptev & Chukchi Seas
* Kara & Black Seas
These rights have expiration dates from 2017 -2023
and are to planned to begin contribution in 2020

Kara & Black Seas will cost estimated $350billion to develop

June 2016
St. Petersburg Economic Forum
Sechin (Rosneft) gives Tillerson (Exxon) thumbs up when Tillerson is asked about Sanctions and he says he will leave that to the governments...
(what does Sechin know?)


October 2016
Rosneft acquired Essar Oil (Indian Refinery- 400,000 bpd)
for $13billion
Includes: port terminals, power plants & pumps

Nov/Dec 2016
Rosneft acquired 30% of
Shouroulk in Egypt and its Zohr offshore gas field from Italy's ENI SPA for $1.575 billion


Dec. 2016
Rosneft Trading SA
Loans $1.5billion to
Venezuela PDV SA against 49.9% of US CITGO Holdings / CITGO Petroleum
Which includes 3 refineries and pipelines (749,000 bpd)
* Corpus Christi, Tx
* Lemont, Illinois
* Lake Charles, La. (6th largest in US)
(Hmmmm... sounds like a down payment on a future sale ... contingent upon sanctions being lifted)

Rosneft ownership is roughly
19.25% BP
19.50% QHG******
10% Russian Stock Market
50% Russia
1.25% other


The QHG 19.5% = the mystery shares referenced in the Steele/Trump Dossier ...

Russia's VTB temporarily loaned QHG 10.2billion (euro) to purchase the 19.5% of Rosneft

The loan was satisfied by a combination of payments:
300million euros from GlenCore
2.5 billion from Qatar
5.2 billion from Intesa SanPaolo on behalf of QHG (loan)
2.2billion ???? Not clear

QHG is made up of GlenCore & Qatar...
and
GlenCore = BP + Qatar

GlenCore
Lists as a director
Peter Grauer (Bloomberg) also a
director - Blackstone

QHG's loan from Intesa SanPaolo (Italian bank) who has partnership with GSO Capital division of Blackstone

Russian source says
QHG likely to default on loan

(Strange, Qatar has hundreds of billions... why finance? Why default? Perhaps just the mutually trusted neutral middleman?)

Meaning Intesa or whomever it assigns the loan to (GSO Capital/ Blackstone) will own that 19.5% upon default by QHG.... likely to occur immediately after sanctions are lifted.

February 20, 2017

Twilight Zone - Alternative Collusion

I have repeatedly found myself asking:

What motivates 45 to do /say things that are so blatantly detrimental to the possibility of engaging in virtually any degree of successful collusion?

* If your campaign benefits from investments and other various questionable acts of Russian support obtained in exchange for your promise to reciprocate by using the powers of office once elected...
why would you purposely draw attention to anything even remotely related to Russia...
much less continuously express your admiration of Vlad ?

* if your collusion agreement requires you to fill your cabinet with wealthy elites who cannot separate from their multiple conflicts of interest in order to meet divestiture and ethical standards....
why create increased opportunities for heightened scrutiny by failing to ensure that they, at the very least, submit all required paperwork in a timely manner?

* if successfully fulfilling your part of the deal requires the appointment of minimally qualified / inexperienced cabinet secretaries..
why would you choose candidates who are well known for their public opposition to the principles, missions & purposes of the very departments for which they have been nominated?

* if you intend to engage in the long term exploitation of the powers of office in order to maximize personal gains &/or to fulfill terms of collusive agreements...
why would you immediately institute a "travel" ban that would instantaneously create a world wide disruption at multiple international airports during peak travel time?

* if you are going to play a round of golf with your collusion co-conspirators at a location where both members of the press and the general public are known to be present...
why would you unnecessarily arouse the suspicions of an entire group of naturally inquisitive reporters by pointedly covering the windows of their assigned location?

* if collusive benefits are in any way related to foreign petroleum reserves...
why would you publicly discuss/mention the possibility of future opportunities to forcibly seize foreign petroleum ...
much less repeat the statement while addressing the members of the Intelligence Community ??

* if you intend to hire people tied to Goldman Sachs...
why would you constantly demonize your opponent for their ties to Goldman Sachs?


This all seems about as illogical as the idea of a masked bank robber standing at a busy intersection flailing his arms wildly -
while holding bags of cash & a gun-
in an attempt to catch a cab
While actually expecting that all who pass by- pedestrians, police, & commuters, alike -
will just smile and wave back as if participating in a parade.

Yet that is pretty much consistent with the collective GOP response thus far....

No matter
* how massive the conflict of interest,
* How unqualified the nominee,
* how detrimental the policy,
* how fiscally unsound the allocation, or
* how absurdly false the assertion...
* how blatantly obvious the collusion

The VP, House & Senate & Administration GOP members just smile and wave as they repeatedly choose to approve, support, defend, & condone every egregious act / request 45 puts before them ---


Now, even the most egotistical con man recognizes that the chances of this collective GOP acquiescence occurring naturally are slim to none...

So, it is safe to assume that 45 has some concrete tangible form of insurance in place to encourage long term compliance...

Yet, insurance alone does not guarantee that the collusion will not be investigated & possibly even prosecuted...

So why subject oneself to such an immense amount of risk?
Or better yet, how might 45 eliminate the risk all together?

Every con has a contingency plan (or 2) just in case things go off course, so what is 45's plan B?

How could an all but guaranteed epic fail be turned into an amazing victory & evidence of campaign promises kept, in the eyes of his followers?

Easy...

45 just needs to be the first one to make a deal...