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nkpolitics1212's Journal
nkpolitics1212's Journal
March 31, 2017

2018 US Senate Rating

AL(Strange-R)Solid Republican
AZ (Flake-R)If Flake-R is the Republican nominee and faces a 2nd or 3rd tier Democrat-Lean Republican,If Flake-R is the Republican nominee and faces a top tier Democrat-Sinema-D Tossup Republican,If Ward-R is the Republican nominee and faces a 2nd or 3rd tier Democrat-Tossup Democratic,If Ward-R is the Republican nominee and faces a top tier Democrat-Sinema-D Lean Democratic.
CA (Feinstein-D)Solid Democratic, A Democrat vs Democrat matchup in November could occur with DiFi losing.
CT (Murphy-D)Solid Democratic
DE (Carper-D)Solid Democratic
FL (Nelson-D)Likely Democratic, Nelson-D defeated McCollum-R in 2000,Harris-R in 2006,Mack-R in 2012,and will defeat Scott-R in 2018.
HI (Hirono-D)Solid Democratic
IN (Donnelly-D) Tossup, It depends on the quality of the Republican, If Republicans nominate another Murdock-Donnelly wins, if Republicans nominate another Young-Donnelly could lose.
ME (King-I)Likely Independent
MD (Cardin-D)Solid Democratic
MA (Warren-D)Solid Democratic
MI (Stabenow-D)Likely Democratic
MN (Klobuchar-D)Solid Democratic
MS (Wicker-R)Solid Republican
MO(McCaskill-D) Lean Democratic
MT (Tester-D)Tossup Democratic, Tester-D narrowly won both of his previous US Senate Races against the unpopular Burns-R in 2006 and Rehberg-R in 2012, and will likely win in 2018 by a narrow to high single digit margin.
NE (Fischer-R)Solid Republican
NV (Heller-R)Tossup Democratic, Democrats are likely to nominate a top tier candidate-Dina Titus-D, and Democrats have a greater than 50-50 chance of winning the NV Governors Race after 24 years-former NV Governor Bob Miller's son Ross is likely to be the Democratic nominee for Governor.
NJ (The winner of the 2017/2018 Special Election) Likely Democratic,Menendez-D is likely to be convicted and be forced to resign, Democrats will win the Special Election and win in November.
NM (Heinrich-D)Likely Democratic, A Republican primary matchup between Martinez-R and Pearce-R will be interesting to watch.
NY(Gillibrand-D)Solid Democratic
ND (Heitkamp-D)Tossup-If Republicans nominate a top tier candidate, the outcome of the race will be based on Trump's national approval rating.
OH (Brown-D)Lean Democratic
PA (Casey-D)Likely Democratic
RI (Whitehouse-D)Solid Democratic
TN (Corker-R)Solid Republican
TX (Cruz-R)Lean Republican with a chance of becoming a Tossup Democratic pickup- Democrats have a top tier candidate Beto O'Rourke, If O'Rourke-D runs a good campaign, Cruz-R self destructs and Trump remains unpopular, O'Rourke-D could be the Democratic version of Scott Brown (2010 MA US Senate Election)
UT (Hatch-R)Solid Republican
VT (Sanders-I)Solid Independent
VA (Kaine-D)Lean Democratic, Gillespie-R narrowly loses the 2017 VA Governors Race and decides to make a third run for statewide office, Kaine's margin of victory over Gillespie in 2018 will be somewhat greater than Warner's margin of victory over Gillespie in 2014.
WA (Cantwell-D)Solid Democratic
WV (Manchin-D)Lean Democratic
WI (Baldwin-D)Lean Democratic
WY (Barrasso-R)Solid Republican.
Democrats lose IN and ND but gain AZ,NV,and TX. +1D

March 30, 2017

2018 US Senate Election DSCC recruits.

All Democratic incumbent US Senators up for re-election in 2018 except for Menendez-NJ will run again. Menendez will likely be convicted of bribery and be forced to resign early 2018. Stephen Sweeney wins the Special Election in 2018 and runs again in November 2018.
Republican held seats
AL-Bobby Bright-D
AZ-Kyrsten Sinema-D
MS-Travis Childers-D
NE-Brad Ashford-D
NV-Kate Marshall-D
TN-Jim Cooper-D
TX-Beto O'Rourke-D
UT-Jim Matheson-D
WY-Dave Freudenthal-D

March 29, 2017

Jon Ossoff-GA winning the April 2017 special election in the GA-6 Congressional District could

increase Democrats chances or regaining control of the US House in 2018.
Democrats need a net gain of 24 seats to get majority control.

March 29, 2017

Could a 2020 Democratic Ticket that has a person from MA and NC be more victorious for Democrats

compared to the 2004 Democratic Ticket?
The 2004 was Kerry-MA/Edwards-NC.
2020 is going to be with Warren-MA/Cooper-NC.
Warren is more popular with the Democratic base than Kerry was in 2004.

March 29, 2017

Any chance that US Senator Joe Manchin-WV would pull a Zell Miller and endorse Trump in 2020,

Give a keynote address at 2020 Republican National Convention and challenge a CNN or MSNBC news host to a duel.?

March 28, 2017

Could US Senator Susan Collins R-ME pull a Jeffords-VT and become an Independent who caucuses with

Democrats like her homestate collegue Angus King?
Democrats need a net gain of 3 seats in order to get a majority in the US Senate.
All Trump State Democratic US Senators (Nelson-FL,Donnelly-IN,Stabenow-MI,McCaskill-MO,Tester-MT,Heitkamp-ND,Brown-OH,Casey-PA,Manchin-WV,and Baldwin-WI) need to get re-elected and Democrats need to defeat vulnerable Republican incumbents ( Flake-AZ and Heller-NV ) This puts Democrats at 50 seats. Democrats need a Clinton state Moderate Republican US Senator to switch parties.

March 27, 2017

2017 US House Elections-Special Election Democratic chances of winning Republican held districts in

GA-6 John Ossoff
KS-4 James Thompson
MT Rob Quist
SC-5 Archie Parnell

March 27, 2017

Roy Cooper-NC should be on the 2020 Democratic Ticket.

He is a one term Governor of a Southern state ie Jimmy Carter (Governor of GA from 1971 to 1975).
He has won 5 statewide elections in NC, a battleground state Democrats need to win in order to win, Cooper is likely to win NC and FL along with the Clinton 2016 states -276 evs.
He defeated a controversial Republican incumbent in his run for Governor, he is likely to defeat a controversial Republican incumbent in his run for President.

March 26, 2017

The 2020 Democratic Presidential nominee should be a governor.

The last 3 out of 5 living ex Presidents were Governors. Carter,Clinton,and Bush-43.
Jay Inslee-WA would be a viable candidate. He will have 8 years service of Governor in 2020 and 18 non consecutive years of service in the US House. He is responsible for blocking Trump's Travel Ban.

March 26, 2017

Caroline Kennedy in 2020.

Any chance Caroline Kennedy or one of her cousins seek the Democratic nomination for President in 2020, The 60th Anniversary of her father getting elected President.

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