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nkpolitics1212's Journal
nkpolitics1212's Journal
June 9, 2017

Georgia Congressional Districts Democrats need to target in addition to GA-6

GA-1 (Carter-R)
GA-7 (Woodall-R)
GA-12 (Allen-R)

June 9, 2017

2018 US Senate Race-Dean Heller-NV is the most vulnerable incumbent US Senator up for re-election

in 2018 and here is why.
Heller is the only Republican US Senator up for re-election in 2018 that represents a Democratic leaning state-voted for Clinton in 2016. Heller is a partisan Republican-he votes more often with the Congressional Republican Leadership than the residents of NV. There is one issue that could hurt Heller-Trumpcare. If Heller votes yes on Trumpcare-both the House and Senate version, he loses re-election regardless of who the Democrats nominate?

June 9, 2017

2018 and 2020 US Senate Elections- Seats Democrats need to win to get back in the majority.

The only vulnerable Republican held US Senate seat Democrats could pick up is NV. AZ could also be a Democratic pickup if Flake-R loses in the primary or a top tier Democrat- Sinema or Kelly runs.
Democratic incumbents in states Trump won by a double digit margin- IN-Donnelly,MO-McCaskill,MT-Tester,ND-Heitkamp,and WV-Manchin are vulnerable to defeat. Donnelly-IN and McCaskill-MO end up losing.
Democrats will end up with a net lose of 1 seat.
Democrats need a net gain of 3 seats plus they need to unseat Trump or Pence.
The most vulnerable Democratic held US Senate seats -NH and VA are going to stay in the Democratic column. Democrats will pick up CO and NC plus AK-if Begich or Berkowitz runs and MT-if Bullock or Schweitzer runs or GA-if Stacey Evans or Stacy Abrams runs and IA-if Tom Vilsack or Chet Culver runs.

June 8, 2017

Does Richard Burr's treatment of Kamala Harris at the Intelligence committee hearing similar to

Jesse Helms treatment of Carol Moseley Braun during the 1990's?

June 8, 2017

2018 and 2020 US Senate Election. Seats Democrats need to win to get back in the majority.

Democrats have to hold onto vulnerable Democratic seats in IN,MO,MT,ND,OH,and WV and pick up AZ,NV,TX or AL.
If Democrats hold onto IN,MO,MT,ND,OH,and WV and pick up AZ and NV in 2018, They need to pick up CO.
If Democrats lose IN and MO, hold onto MT,ND,OH,and WV and pick up AZ and NV in 2018, They need to pick up CO,NC,and GA.

June 8, 2017

US Senator elects in 2017/2018

2017 Special
AL-Strange-R loses in primary to Moore-R.
Moore-R defeats Jones-D in the general.
Roy Moore-R
AZ-Flake-R loses in primary to Ward-R.
Ward-R loses in the general to Sinema-D
Kyrsten Sinema-D
CA-Feinstein-D recieves less than 40 percent of popular vote in the blanket primary. Swalwell-D finishes in 2nd place.
Swalwell-D defeats Feinstein-D in the November runnoff like he did to Pete Stark in the 2012 US House Race.
Eric Swalwell-D
DE-Carper-D retires. Markell-D wins the primary and general.
Jack Markell-D
IN-Donnelly-D loses in the general to Rokita-R
Todd Rokita-R
MD-Cardin-D retires. Sarbanes-D wins the primary and general.
John Sarbanes-D
MO-McCaskill-D loses in the general to Wagner-R
Ann Wagner-R
NV-Heller-R loses in the general to Marshall-D
Kate Marshall-D
NJ-Menendez-D resigns next year. Governor Murphy-D appoints Pallone-D
Frank Pallone-D
UT-Hatch-R loses in the primary to McMullin-R.
Evan McMullin-R

June 7, 2017

2018 US Senate Election-likely Democratic nominee vs likely Republican nominee.

2017 Special AL-Roy Moore-R vs Doug Jones-D- Race goes from Likely Republican to Tossup.
AZ-Kelli Ward-R vs Randy Freise-D- Race goes from Lean Republican to Lean Democratic.
CA-Diane Feinstein-D and another Democrat (Eric Garcetti-D or Kevin De'Leon-D) will make it out of the blanket primary.
CT-Chris Murphy-D vs Tony Hwang-R- Solid Democratic.
DE-Tom Carper-D vs Chuck Boyce-R- Solid Democratic.
FL-Bill Nelson-D vs Lateresa Jones -R- Likely Democratic.
HI-Mazie Hirono-D is likely to run unopposed.
IN-Joe Donnelly-D vs Todd Rokita-R- Tossup.
ME-Angus King-I vs Eric Brakey-R vs Fred Wiand-D- Likely Independent.
MD-Ben Cardin-D vs Sam Faddis-R- Solid Democratic.
MA-Elizabeth Warren-D vs Geoff Diehl-R- Solid Democratic.
MI-Debbie Stabenow-D vs Lena Epstein-R- Likely Democratic.
MN-Amy Klobuchar-D is likely to run unopposed.
MS-Roger Wicker-R is likely to run unopposed.
MO-Claire McCaskill-D vs Ann Wagner-R- Tossup
MT-Jon Tester-D vs Al Olszewski-R- Lean Democratic.
NE-Deb Fischer-R is likely to run unopposed.
NV-Dean Heller-R vs Kate Marshall-D- Tossup.
NJ-Jim Johnson-D vs Jerry Watson-R- Likely Democratic
NM-Martin Heinrich-D vs Mick Rich-R- Solid Democratic
NY-Kirsten Gillibrand-D vs Rafael Jones-R- Solid Democratic
ND-Heidi Heitkamp-D vs Kevin Cramer-R- Tossup
OH-Sherrod Brown-D vs Josh Mandel-R- Lean Democratic
PA-Bob Casey-D vs Bobby Lawrence-R- Likely Democratic
RI-Sheldon Whitehouse-D vs Bob Flanders-R- Solid Democratic
TN-Bob Corker-R vs James Mackler-D- Solid Republican
TX-Ted Cruz-R vs Beto O'Rourke-D- Lean Republican
UT-Evan McMullin-R vs Jenny Wilson-D- Solid Republican
VT-Bernie Sanders-I/D is likely to run unopposed.
VA-Tim Kaine-D vs Carly Fiorina-R- Likely Democratic
WA-Maria Cantwell-D is likely to run unopposed.
WV-Joe Manchin-D vs Evan Jenkins-R- Lean Democratic
WI-Tammy Baldwin-D vs John Schiess-R- Likely Democratic
WY-John Barrasso-R is likely to run unopposed.

June 7, 2017

Who's comments were deplorable? Bill Maher's or Don Imus's?

Bill Maher accidently or purposely used the N-word on his HBO show couple of days ago.
Don Imus made a joke about about the players at the Rutger's Women Basketball team a decade ago, his show on MSNBC went off the air and was replaced by Morning Joe.

June 5, 2017

States that have yet to elect a women to the US Senate and could elect a women in the near future.

AZ-2018- If Flake loses in the Republican primary to Kelli Ward-R. Ward-R vs Deedra Abboud-D is a tossup.
AZ-2022-If McCain retires, Kyrsten Sinema-D.
CO-2020-Cary Kennedy-D,Betsey Markey-D or Chrisanta Duran-D could challenge and unseat Gardner-R.
CT-2022-If Blumenthal-D retires, Elizabeth Esty-D.
DE-2018-If Carper-D retires, Lisa Blount Rochester-D.
ID-2020-If Risch-R retires, Sherri Ybarra-R
ID-2022-If Crapo-R retires, Janice McGeachin-R or Kelley Packer-R.
IN-2018-Jackie Walorski-R could challenge and unseat Donnelly-D.
KY-2020-If McConnell-R retires,Allison Ball-R.
MS-2020-If Cochran-R retires,Lynn Fitch-R.
MT-2020-If Daines-R loses in the Republican primary to Greg Gianforte-R,Amanda Curtis-D or Kelly McCarthy-D.
NJ-2018-If Menendez-D resigns or loses in the Democratic Primary to Lisa McCormick-D, Lisa McCormick-D.
NM-2020-If Udall-D retires, Maggie Toulouse Oliver-D.
OH-2022-Nan Whaley-D could unseat and defeat Portman-R.
OK-2020-If Inhofe-R retires, Mary Fallin-R.
PA-2022-Katie McGinty-D could challenge and unseat Toomey-R in a rematch.
RI-2020-If Reed-D retires, Nellie Gorbea-D.
SC-2020-If Graham-R loses in the Republican primary to Nikky Haley-R. Nikky Haley-R.
TN-2020-If Alexander-R retires,Diane Black-R or Marsha Blackburn-R.
UT-2018-If Hatch-R retires, Mia Love-R.
VT-2022-If Leahy-D retires, Beth Pearce-D
WY-2020-If Enzi-R retires, Liz Cheney-R.

June 4, 2017

2018 Colorado Governors and 2020 Colorado US Senate Race, Assuming Hickenlooper does not run for the

US Senate in 2020 against Republican incumbent Cory Gardner, Which Democratic candidate for the 2018 Colorado Governors Race is likely to challenge and defeat Gardner in the 2020 CO US Senate Race? Ed Perlmutter is going to be the Democratic nominee for Governor in 2018 and is going to be the next Governor of Colorado. This means Cary Kennedy or Mike Johnston are the likely Democratic candidates to challenge Gardner in 2020. Which candidate is likely to be a Democratic nominee for the 2020 CO US Senate Race and unseat Gardner in a neutral environmental?
Cary Kennedy-D?
Mike Johnston-D?

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