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nkpolitics1212

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Member since: Fri Jan 20, 2017, 07:10 PM
Number of posts: 2,616

Journal Archives

What are Rob Quist-D chances of winning the MT US House Election tomorrow due to his opponent

Greg Gianforte-R assaulting the reporter?
If Gianforte-R loses tomorrow, does he seek a rematch or does his ego make him challenge Tester-D?
Posted by nkpolitics1212 | Wed May 24, 2017, 08:06 PM (8 replies)

2018 US Senate Election- Top tier Republican challengers and Democratic challengers.

Top tier Republican challengers that announced they are running.
OH-Mandel-R is likely to lose to Brown-D by a narrow to high single digit margin.
WV-Jenkins-R is likely to lose to Manchin-D by a high single to low double digit margin.
Top tier Republican challengers that have yet to announce.
FL-Does Scott-R run for US Senate or goes back to private practice? Republicans best candidate is Jolly-R. Jolly-R is likely to lose to Nelson-D by a double digit margin.
IN-Walorski-R is likely to defeat or lose to Donnelly-D by a narrow margin.
MI-Does Snyder-R run for the US Senate or goes back to private practice? Republicans best candidate is Amash-R. Amash-R is likely to lose to Stabenow-D by a double digit margin.
MN-Paulsen-R running will be a double victory for Democrats. Klobuchar-D wins by a double digit margin and Democrats win Paulsen's MN-3 US House seat.
MO-Wagner-R is likely to lose to McCaskill-D by a narrow to high single digit margin.
MT-Fox-R is likely to run for the open Governor's Race in 2020.
NJ-MacArthur-R running will be a double victory for Democrats. Whoever wins the Democratic primary besides Menendez-D or Torricelli-D will win by a double digit margin and Democrats win MacArthur's NJ-3 US House seat.
NM-A Republican primary between Martinez-R and Pearce-R, Pearce-R wins the Republican primary but loses to Heinrich-D by a landslide margin.
ND-Cramer-R or Berg-R loses to Heitkamp-D by a narrow margin.
PA-Barletta-R loses to Casey-D by a double digit margin.
VA-Does Gillespie-R run for a 3rd losing race or does he challenge Trump in 2020? Comstock-R running gives Democrats a double victory. Kaine-D wins by a high single to low double digit margin and Democrats win Comstock's VA-10 US House district.
Top Tier Democratic challengers that announced they are running.
TX-O'Rourke-D is likely to defeat or lose to Cruz-R by a narrow margin.
Top Tier Democratic challengers that have yet to announce.
AZ-The likely Democratic nominee- Friese-D will be the Chris Coons/Joe Donnelly of 2018. Faces an unelectable Republican nominee-Ward-R.
NV-The likely Democratic nominee-Marshall-D will defeat Heller-R by a narrow to high single digit margin.
UT-Matheson-D or McAdams-D could benefit from a 3 way race between McMullin-I,the Republican nominee,and the Democratic nominee.

Posted by nkpolitics1212 | Tue May 23, 2017, 08:52 PM (1 replies)

Is Melania Trump a Volvo Driving Soccer Mom?

Posted by nkpolitics1212 | Mon May 22, 2017, 08:17 PM (11 replies)

I just learned that Donald Trump is proposing cuts in Medicaid.

We need to ask low income social conservatives what is important to them. Being able to pay their medical bills or being concerned about Donald and Michael getting Married? We should also remind them that they are losing medicaid benefits to pay for tax cuts for the wealthy.
Posted by nkpolitics1212 | Mon May 22, 2017, 07:23 PM (5 replies)

2017 US House Special Election in GA-6

A recent Survey USA poll shows Ossoff-D leading Handel-R by a 51-44
Posted by nkpolitics1212 | Mon May 22, 2017, 07:14 PM (1 replies)

2018 FL Governors race- Could Democratic candidates Graham and Gillum-D be on the Gov/Lt Gov ticket?

Does Graham or Gillum-D have to pick a South Florida Democrat? Patrick Murphy or Kendrick Meek.
Posted by nkpolitics1212 | Sun May 21, 2017, 07:18 PM (0 replies)

2018 US House Election-Republican US House members in Democratic leaning Districts and

Weak Republican leaning districts (Even to +4R)
AZ-2 (McSally-R)+1R 1
CA-10 (Denham-R)Even 2
CA-21(Valadao-R)+5D 3
CA-25 (Knight-R)Even 4
CA-39 (Royce-R)Even
CA-45 (Walters-R)+3R
CA-48 (Rohrabacher-R)+4R
CA-49 (Issa-R)+1R 5
CO-6 (Coffman-R)+2D 6
FL-25 (Diaz Balart-R)+4R
FL-26 (Curbelo-R)+6D 7
FL-27 (Open-Ros-Lehtinen-R)+5D 8
IL-6 (Roskam-R)+2R
IL-13 (Davis-R)+3R
IA-1 (Blum-R)+1D 9
IA-3(Young-R)+1R 10
KS-3 (Yoder-R)+4R
ME-2 (Poliquin-R)+2R 11
MI-6 (Upton-R)+4R
MI-8 (Rogers-R)+4R
MI-11 (Trott-R)+4R 12
MN-2 (Lewis-R)+2R 13
MN-3 (Paulsen-R)+1D 14
NE-2 (Bacon-R)+4R 15
NJ-2 (LoBiondo-R)+1R
NJ-3 (McArthur-R)+2R
NJ-7 (Lance-R)+3R
NJ-11 (Frelinghuysen-R) +3R
NY-2(King-R)+3R
NY-11 (Donovan-R)+3R
NY-19 (Faso-R)+2R 15
NY-21 (Stefanick-R)+4R
NY-24(Katko-R)+3D
OH-10 (Turner-R)+4R
PA-6 (Costello-R)+2R 16
PA-7 (Meehan-R)+1R
PA-8 (Fitzpatrick-R)+2R 17
PA-15 (Dent-R)+4R
TX-23 (Hurd-R)+1R 18
VA-2 (Taylor-R)+3R
VA-10(Comstock-R)+1D 19
WA-3 (Herrara-Beutler-R) +4R
WA-8 (Reichert-R)Even
Posted by nkpolitics1212 | Sun May 21, 2017, 03:32 PM (3 replies)

Can Democrats do to Paul Ryan-WI in 2018 what Republicans did to Tom Foley-WA in 1994?

In 1994- Then Democratic Speaker of the US House Tom Foley narrowly lost re-election to George Nethercutt because of the Republican wave and also because Foley opposed the Term Limits initiative in 1992 which was approved by majority of the voters in WA. Nethercutt promised to serve 3 terms but ran for re-election in 2000 and 2002, In 2004 he ran for the US Senate against Patty Murphy and lost by a double digit margin.
Paul Ryan-WI represents a +5R District and it was previously held Les Aspin/Peter Barca before the 1994 midterm elections.
Posted by nkpolitics1212 | Sun May 21, 2017, 02:35 PM (11 replies)

Trump Impeachment Trial-Which Republican US Senator could vote yes to remove Trump from office?

Impeachment is likely to take place after the 2018 elections. Every highly vulnerable Democratic US Senator up for re-election in 2018 (Donnelly-IN,McCaskill-MO,Heitkamp-ND,and Brown-OH) will win re-election and highly vulnerable Republican US Senator up for re-election in 2018 (Flake-AZ,Heller-NV,and Cruz-TX) will lose re-election.
Every Democratic US Senator will vote yes to remove Trump from office- 51 Yes.
The number of Republican US Senators that we need to vote yes is 16.

Posted by nkpolitics1212 | Sun May 21, 2017, 01:15 PM (7 replies)

2018 US House Election- Democrats need a net gain of 24 seats.

Democrats need to worry about holding onto
MN-1 (Open-Walz-D)
Democrats need to pick up
MT(Vacant-Zinke-R)Special Election on May 25, 2017. +1D
GA-6 (Vacant-Price-R)Special Election on June 20, 2017. +2D
AZ-2 (McSally-R)+3D
CA-10 (Denham-R)+4D
CA-21 (Valadao-R)+5D
CA-25 (Knight-R)+6D
CA-39(Royce-R )+7D
CA-45 (Walters-R)+8D
CA-48(Rohrabacher-R)+9D
CA-49 (Issa-R)+10D
CO-6 (Coffman-R)+11D
FL-26 (Curbelo-R)+12D
FL-27 (Open-Ros-Lehtinen-R) +13D
IL-6 (Roskam-R)+14D
IL-13 (Davis-R)+15D
IA-1 (Blum-R)+16D
IA-3 (Young-R)+17D
KS-2 (Open-Jenkins-R)+18D
KS-3 (Yoder-R)+19D
ME-2 (Poliquin-R)+20D
MI-8 (Bishop-R)+21D
MI-11 (Trott-R)+22D
MN-2 (Lewis-R)+23D
MN-3 (Paulsen-R)+24D
NE-2 (Bacon-R)+25D
NJ-7 (Lance-R)+26D
NJ-11 (Frelinghuysen-R) +27D
NY-19 (Faso-R)+28D
NY-22(Tenney-R)+29D
NY-24 (Katko-R)+30D
PA-6 (Costello-R)+31D
PA-7 (Meehan-R)+32D
PA-8 (Fitzpatrick-R)+33D
PA-16 (Smucker-R)+34D
TX-7 (Culberson-R)+35D
TX-23 (Hurd-R)+36D
TX-32 (Sessions-R)+37D
VA-10 (Comstock-R)+38D


Posted by nkpolitics1212 | Sun May 21, 2017, 11:02 AM (15 replies)
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