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nkpolitics1212

nkpolitics1212's Journal
nkpolitics1212's Journal
March 31, 2022

There are 4 Republican held US Senate seats up for re-election in 2022 that the Democrats will win.

1)PA(OPEN Toomey-R) will go to Fetterman-D.
2)WI(Johnson-R) will go to Barnes-D. Barnes is a better campaigner than Feingold. Barnes is not going to take a risk like not taking soft money contributions which was in the McCain/Feingold bill.
3)NC(OPEN Burr-R) will go to Beasley-D. Polls have Beasley in a statistical tie race against all of the Republican candidates.
4)OH(OPEN Portman-R) will go to Ryan-D. Polls have Ryan in a statistical tie race against all of the Republican candidates.
On the Democratic side, GA could be the seat. The winner of this seat will be decided on 1/2023. The race is a pure Tossup.
Democrats will hold onto NV,AZ,NH,and CO.

Democrats will win
37)NY(Schumer-D)
38)HI(Schatz-D)
39)CA(Padilla-D)
40)VT(Welch-D)
41)MD(Van Hollen-D)
42)CT(Blumenthal-D)
43)OR(Wyden-D)
44)IL(Duckworth-D)
45)WA(Murray-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)NH(Hassan-D)
48)AZ(Kelly-D)
49)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
50)PA(Fetterman-D)
51)WI(Barnes-D)
52)NC(Beasley-D)

March 30, 2022

Could Gubernatorial Coattails help Democrats in the 2022 US Senate Races?

CO and NH are non competitive in both the US Senate and the Governors Elections. Sununu-R will win the Governors Election and Hassan-D will win the US Senate Election.
Democrats are likely to win the Governors and US Senate Elections in
NV(Sisolak-D and Cortez Masto-D),
AZ(Hobbs-D and Kelly-D),
PA(Shapiro-D and Fetterman-D or Lamb-D),
GA(Abrams-D and Warnock-D),
WI(Evers-D and Barnes-D).

Republicans will win the Governors and US Senate Elections in OH and FL.


We need to keep an eye on NC and MO if Greitens-R is the GOP nominee.

March 30, 2022

Worse case scenario for Democrats in the 2022 US Senate Election cycle is 52 seats for Democrats.

37)HI(Schatz-D)
38)NY(Schumer-D)
39)CA(Padilla-D)
40)MD(Van Hollen-D)
41)CT(Blumenthal-D)
42)VT(Welch-D)
43)OR(Wyden-D)
44)IL(Duckworth-D)
45)WA(Murray-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)NH(Hassan-D)
48)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
49)AZ(Kelly-D)
50)PA(Fetterman-D)
51)GA(Warnock-D)
52)WI(Barnes-D)
Best case scenario for Democrats is
53)NC(Beasley-D)
54)OH(Ryan-D)
55)FL(Demings-D)
56)MO(Busch Valentine-D or Kunce-D vs Greitens-R)
57)IA(Finkenauer-D or Franken-D)

March 30, 2022

VA Governors have ran for the US Senate right after they leave the Governorship!

Robb-D(1988)
Macaca Allen-R(2000)
Mark Warner-D(2008)
Kaine-D(2012)

Youngkin-R leaves office in 2026.
Mark Warner’s term expires in 2026.
Does Youngkin-R run for the US Senate in 2026?

March 30, 2022

According to the pundits, Democrats will lose 2 US Senate seats GA and AZ.

Here is my prediction-
Democrats will hold onto-
GA(Tilt D)
AZ(Lean D)
NV(Lean D)
NH(Likely D)
CO(Likely-D)
WA(Likely-D)
Democrats will pick up
PA(Tilt D)
NC(Tilt D)
WI(Tilt D

Democrats will win
37)HI(Schatz-D)
38)NY(Schumer-D)
39)CA(Padilla-D)
40)MD(Van Hollen-D)
41)VT(Welch-D)
42)CT(Blumenthal-D)
43)OR(Wyden-D)
44)IL(Duckworth-D)
45)WA(Murray-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)NH(Hassan-D)
48)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
49)AZ(Kelly-D)
50)GA(Warnock-D)
51)PA(Fetterman-D)
52)NC(Beasley-D)
53)WI(Barnes-D)


March 30, 2022

Is Trudy Valentine's candidacy for the US Senate really to help her with the 2024 Governors Race.?

Unless Greiten’s is the Republican nominee, Valentine is not going to win the 2022 MO US Senate Election. The 2024 MO Governors Race against an unpopular Republican incumbent is winnable for Valentine. Democrats tend to win state and local elections in red states not federal elections.
Laura Kelly-KS
Andy Beshear-KY
John Bel Edwards-LA



March 30, 2022

The maximum number of US Senate seats the Democrats will end up with after 2022 is 57.

57)IA(Finkenauer-D or Franken-D could portray Grassley-R as an old career politician.)IA is like what MO was in the 2010’s.
56)MO(Busch Valentine-D or Kunce-D vs Greitens-R) Greitens as the Republican nominee gives Democrats a fighting chance to win back a US Senate seat from MO.
55)FL(Demings-D)
54)OH(Ryan-D)
53)NC(Beasley-D)
52)WI(Barnes-D)
51)GA(Warnock-D)
50)PA(Fetterman-D or Lamb-D)
49)AZ(Kelly-D)
48)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
47)NH(Hassan-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
45)WA(Murray-D)
44)IL(Duckworth-D)
43)OR(Wyden-D)
42)VT(Welch-D)
41)CT(Blumenthal-D)
40)MD(Van Hollen-D)
39)CA(Padilla-D)
38)NY(Schumer-D)
37)HI(Schatz-D)

March 29, 2022

There is one big problem with the Busch Valentine candidacy.

What turned Grietens into a wife beater?
Was it beer?
Anhueser Busch beer?
or is Greitens just evil?

This is what Lucas Kunce should campaign on?

March 29, 2022

US Senate Elections in 2022 that the Democrats are likely to win!

37)HI(Schatz-D)
38)NY(Schumer-D)
39)CA(Padilla-D)
40)MD(Van Hollen-D)
41)CT(Blumenthal-D)
42)VT(Welch-D)
43)OR(Wyden-D)
44)IL(Duckworth-D)
45)WA(Murray-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)NH(Hassan-D)
48)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
49)AZ(Kelly-D)
50)PA(Fetterman-D)
51)GA(Warnock-D)
52)WI(Barnes-D)
53)NC(Beasley-D)
54)OH(Ryan-D)
55)MO(Busch Valentine-D vs Grietens-R)

March 29, 2022

What is the likelihood of Democrats winning 20 US Senate Elections in 2022?

20)MO(Busch Valentine-D/Kunce-D)
19)FL(Demings-D)
18)OH(Ryan-D)
17)NC(Beasley-D)
16)WI(Barnes-D)
15)GA(Warnock-D)
14)PA(Fetterman-D/Lamb-D)
13)AZ(Kelly-D)
12)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
11)NH(Hassan-D)
10)CO(Bennet-D)
9)IL(Duckworth-D)
8)WA(Murray-D)
7)OR(Wyden-D)
6)CT(Blumenthal-D)
5)MD(Van Hollen-D)
4)NY(Schumer-D)
3)CA(Padilla-D)
2)HI(Schatz-D)
1)VT(Welch-D)

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