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nkpolitics1212's Journal
nkpolitics1212's Journal
December 8, 2017

2018/2020 US Senate Election-Democrats guide to 60 seats.

Democrats need to hold onto every Democratic held US Senate Seat up in 2018(FL,IN,MI,MN special,MO,MT,NJ,ND,OH,PA,VA,WV,and WI) and 2020(MI,MN,NH,and VA). 48D
Democrats pick up
AL(Jones-D) in 2017.and hold it in 2020. 49D
AZ(Sinema-D),NV(Rosen-D),TN(Bredesen-D) and TX(O'Rourke-D) in 2018. 53D
AK(Walker-I caucuses with the Democrats),AZ-Special(Kelly-D),CO(Hancock-D),GA(Reed-D),MT(Bullock-D),NC(Foxx-D),and TX(Castro-D) 60D

December 8, 2017

2018/2020 US Senate Election-Democrats guide to regaining control of the US Senate.

If Democrats were to regain control of the US Senate in 2018.
Jones-AL has to pull off an upset on Tuesday. 49D
McCaskill-MO,Donnelly-IN,Nelson-FL(assuming Scott-R is the Republican nominee),Manchin-WV,Heitkamp-ND,Brown-OH,and Tester-MT has to get re-elected. I expect Baldwin-WI, Casey-PA,Stabenow-MI, the Democratic nominee in MN Special,Kaine-VA, and Menendez-NJ to get re-elected by a high single/low double digit margin.
Sinema-AZ and Rosen-NV have to get elected. 51D
If Jones-AL doesn't succeed on Tuesday, Bredesen-TN is plan B.
If Bredesen-TN,McCaskill-MO,and Donnelly-IN don't succeed in November 2018.
2020 will be the year Democrats regain control of the US Senate.
Democrats hold onto MN(winner of the 2018 Special Election),VA(Warner-D wins by a wider margin than in 2014),NH(Shaheen-D defeats Sununu-R). Durbin-IL,Markey-MA,Peters-MI,Booker-NJ,Udall-NM,Merkley-OR,and Reed-RI will win re-election by a double digit margin.
Democrats will pick up CO(Hickenlooper-D or Perlmutter-D), AZ Special(Kelly-D or Stanton-D),NC(Stein-D or Wood-D)
ME(If Collins-R is not the Republican Nominee and Baldacci-D is the Democratic Nominee) and MT(Bullock-D). 53D.

December 8, 2017

2018 MN US Senate Special Election Rating.

Swanson-D vs Pawlenty-R = Slight Democratic
Swanson-D vs Paulsen-R= Lean Democratic
Swanson-D vs Emmer-R= Likely Democratic
Swanson-D vs Bachmann-R= Solid Democratic.
McCollum-D vs Pawlenty-R = Slight Republican
McCollum-D vs Paulsen-R= Slight Democratic
McCollum-D vs Emmer-R= Lean Democratic
McCollum-D vs Bachmann-R = Likely Democratic
Ellison-D vs Pawlenty-R= Lean Republican
Ellison-D vs Paulsen-R= Slight Republican
Ellison-D vs Emmer-R= Slight Democratic
Ellison-D vs Bachmann-R= Lean Democratic

December 8, 2017

Now that Al Franken is out of the US Senate and a Democrat is likely to replace him.

Franken should spend the next 3 years rehabilitating himself for a 2020 Presidential run. If we are forced to have a Republican Sexual Predator in the White House, Why cant we have a Democratic Sexual Predator in the White House.

December 7, 2017

2018 US Senate Special Elections in AZ,AR,and MN-Democratic nominee vs Republican nominee.

AZ(Kelly-D vs Schweikert-R) Lean Democratic
AR(Beebe-D vs Westerman-R) Tossup
MN(McCollum-D vs Bachman-R) Likely Democratic

December 7, 2017

2018 US Senate Election-Trump State Democratic US Senators from most to least vulnerable.

1)MO(McCaskill-D) vs Hawley-R Tossup
2)IN(Donnelly-D) vs Messer-R or Rokita-R Tossup
3)WV(Manchin-D) vs Jenkins-R or Morrisey-R Slight Democratic
4)FL(Nelson-D) vs Scott-R Slight Democratic
5)ND(Heitkamp-D) vs Campbell-R Slight Democratic
6)OH(Brown-D) vs Mandel-R Lean Democratic
7)MT(Tester-D) vs Rosendale-R Lean Democratic
8)WI(Baldwin-D) vs Vukmir-R Lean Democratic
9)PA(Casey-D) vs Barletta-R Likely Democratic
10)MI(Stabenow-D) vs Young-R Likely Democratic

December 6, 2017

John Conyers has resigned today. His son John the 3rd and grand nephew Ian are both in the race.

Which Conyers is going to be the next US Representative from MI-13? John the 3rd or Ian?
The new Dean of the US House is Don Young(R-AK)
The ranking Democrat in the US House Judiciary Committee is Jerrold Nadler(D-NY10)
The oldest member of the US House is Louise Slaughter(D-NY25)
The next senior member of the MI US House Delegation after Sander Levin(D-MI9) who is retiring next year is Fred Upton(R-MI6)
The senior member of the Congressional Black Caucus is John Lewis(D-GA5)
Due to the departures of Bart Stupak-2011,Pete Hoekstra-2011,Dave Camp-2015, Dale Kildee-2013,Mike Rogers-2015,Sander Levin-2019,Candice Miller-2016, John Dingell-2015, and John Conyers jr-2017, MI is losing its clout in US Congress.

December 6, 2017

Besides AL-7, Which other AL Congressional District will Doug Jones-D will carry next week?

AL-1 +15R
AL-2 +16R
AL-3 +16R
AL-5 +18R
AL-7 +20D

AL-1 Jones-D 49 Moore-R 49
AL-2 Jones-D 48 Moore-R 50
AL-3 Jones-D 48 Moore-R 50
AL-4 Jones-D 33 Moore-R 65
AL-5 Jones-D 46 Moore-R 50
AL-6 Jones-D 41Moore-R 56
AL-7 Jones-D 85 Moore-R 14

Statewide Jones-D 50 Moore-R 48

AL-1 is the other AL Congressional District besides AL-7, Jones-D is likely to carry.

December 5, 2017

Who is Luther Strange endorsing in the 2017 AL US Senate Race?

Is Luther Strange gonna follow the political party line and endorse Moore or Is Luther Strange gonna follow his conscience and endorse Jones or Busby?

December 5, 2017

Dateline NBC To Catch a Predator should a live sting operation in Alabama.

I like to see Chris Hansen confront Roy Moore.

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