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nkpolitics1212's Journal
nkpolitics1212's Journal
December 15, 2017

2018 and 2020 US Senate Election-Democrats guide to a majority.

Democrats lose IN and MO but gain AZ and NV. 49D 51R
Democrats lose AL but gain AZ Special,CO,ME- if Collins retires or is defeated in the primary,MT-if Bullock-D runs, and NC. 51D 49R

December 14, 2017

2018 AZ US Senate Special Election?

If McCain-R succumbs to brain cancer any time in the near future, there will be a special election in November 2018.
Likely Democratic Nominee will be Mark Kelly vs Likely Republican Nominee will be Martha McSally.
Who is favored to win?

December 14, 2017

2018 US Senate Election- Democrats will have between 51 to 54 seats after 2018.

Every Single Democratic held US Senate Seat up in 2018 remains in the Democratic column- that includes FL(Nelson-D vs Scott-R) What is the likelihood of Scott-R running in FL?, IN(Donnelly-D),MN Special(Smith-D),MO(McCaskill-D),MT(Tester-D),NJ(Menendez-D)ND(Heitkamp-D),OH(Brown-D),PA(Casey-D), WV(Manchin-D), and WI(Baldwin-D) 49D.
Democrats pick up AZ(Sinema-D) and NV(Rosen-D) 51D
Potential Surprise Victories for Democrats- TN(Bredensen-D),TX(O'Rourke-D) and UT(Wilson-D)- assuming McMullin-I runs and splits the Republican vote. 54.

December 14, 2017

2020 US Senate Election- Democratic held seats from most vulnerable to least vulnerable.

1)AL-Jones-D Tossup/Lean Republican
2)MN- Smith-D Tossup/Lean Democratic
3)NH- Shaheen-D Lean Democratic
4)VA- Warner-D Lean Democratic
5)MI- Peters-D Likely Democratic
6)NM- Udall-D Likely Democratic
7)OR- Merkley-D Solid Democratic
8)NJ-Booker-D Solid Democratic
9)IL-Durbin-D Solid Democratic
10)DE-Coons-D Solid Democratic
11)RI-Reed-D Solid Democratic
12)MA-Markey-D Solid Democratic

December 14, 2017

States with 2 female US Senators before and after 2018.

CA-Feinstein-D and Harris-D
MN-Klobuchar-D and Smith-D
NV-Cortez Masto-D and Rosen-D
NH-Shaheen-D and Hassan-D
WA-Murray-D and Cantwell-D

December 14, 2017

2018 US Senate Race in UT- 4 way race between Hatch-R vs Wilson-D vs McMullin-I vs Bowden-L

Wilson-D 35%
Hatch-R 30%
McMullin-I 25%
Bowden-L 10%

December 14, 2017

2018 MN US Senate Special Election- Tina Smith-D

Governor Mark Dayton-D appointed his Lt. Governor Tina Smith-D to the MN US Senate Seat vacated by Al Franken-D.
Sitting Lt. Governors who have been appointed to the US Senate.
2012-Brian Schatz(D-HI) appointed to replace Dan Inouye-D who died. Schatz-D defeated Colleen Hanabusa-Inouye's preferred candidate in the Democratic Primary and then won the November 2012 General Election.
1996-Sheila Frahm(R-KS) appointed to replace Bob Dole-R who resigned to run for POTUS. Frahm-R lost in the Republican primary to Sam Brownback.
Smith-D is going to win the Democratic Nomination for the 2018 MN US Senate Race with strong endorsements from the entire DFL establishment. I expect the surviving members of the Wellstone family to support Smith.
Republicans will nominate Michelle Bachmann over Tim Pawlenty.
Tina Smith-D defeats Michelle Bachmann in the November 2018 General Election by a high single to low double digit margin.

December 13, 2017

Doug Jones(D-AL) victory last night helps

Bredensen(D-TN) and O'Rourke(D-TX).

December 13, 2017

I hear that NRSC committee chair Gardner(R-CO) is inviting Sen. Elect Jones(D-AL) to switch sides.

Will they send Richard Shelby to convince Doug Jones to become a Republican like Shelby did 23 years ago?

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