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nkpolitics1212's Journal
nkpolitics1212's Journal
December 22, 2017

Could Jeff Flake(R-AZ) run for the McCain seat in 2018 like Kent Conrad(D-ND) did in 1992?

Kent Conrad who was first elected to the US Senate in 1986 decided not to seek re-election in 1992. But when the other ND US Senator Quentin Burdick died in September of 1992, Conrad ran for that seat and won.
If McCain dies after the Arizona primaries which takes place on August 28, 2018, and a Special Primary Election takes place in late September/Early October. Flake should follow Kent Conrad's lead and occupy 2 US Senate seats in the same year.

December 22, 2017

2018 MS US Senate Election-Which Democrat runs for Wicker's seat? Which one runs for the Cochran's?

Unless McDaniel succeeds in defeating Wicker in the Republican Primary, winning the Wicker seat will be an uphill battle. MS Democrats should get a black candidate or a liberal white candidate to run for the Wicker seat.
State Senator Derrick Simmons
State Senator Deborah Jeanne Dawkins.
Jackson Mayor Chokwe Antar Lumumba.
This will increase increase voter turnout among progressive voters.
Democrats should get a Brandon Presley to run for the Cochran seat.

December 22, 2017

2018 MS US Senate Elections- What if Democrats nominate a black candidate for MS seat?

It will increase voter turnout in the black community.-
State Senator Derrick Simmons - known for introducing legislation to expand Medicaid. Simmons is young and is a trial lawyer.
Brandon Presley for the other MS seat?

December 21, 2017

2022 US House Elections in AL,IL,MI,MN,NY,OH,PA,RI,and WV. Who's CD gets eliminated?

AL- Roby-R (AL-2) retires and runs for the US Senate in 2022 to replace Shelby-R.
IL- Hultgren-R(IL-14) and Roskam-R(IL-6) will be placed in the same district due to the fact Chicago population is declining.
MI- Whoever replaces Trott(MI-11) in 2018?
MN- Paulsen-R(MN-3).
NY- Katko-R(NY-24)
OH- Ryan-D(OH-13) retires and runs for the US Senate in 2022 against Portman-R or Governor in 2022 against DeWine-R.
PA- Cartwright(PA-17) and whoever replaces Dent(PA-15) in 2018 will be placed in the same district.
RI- Either Cicilline(RI-1) or Langevin(RI-2) run for Governor in 2022.
WV- Mooney(WV-2) will be out of office.

December 21, 2017

2018 US Senate Election in MT,ND,and WV- Could Democratic incumbents win by a landslide margin?

Manchin(D-WV) won his last US Senate election in 2012 by a 24 percent margin. Manchin could win by a similar margin in 2018.
Former ND Democratic US Senator Kent Conrad won his first US Senate election in 1986 by a less than 1 percent margin. Conrad won re-election in 1992,1994,2000, and 2006 by a landslide margin. Heitkamp(D-ND) re-election margin of victory can be similar to Conrad and Dorgan's margin of victory.
Tester(D-MT) 2018 margin of victory can be similar to Baucus's(D-MT) 1978,1984,1990,and 2002 margin of victory.

December 20, 2017

MN-7(Peterson-D) represents the most Republican leaning District +12R PVI.

When will MN-7 be a Republican pickup?
2020- assuming Peterson-D retires.
2022- assuming a Democrat is in the White House.

December 20, 2017

2022 US Senate Election- If a Democrat is in the White House,

Which Democratic held US Senate seat will the Democrats are Likely to lose in 2022?
NH(Hassan-D) Ayotte-R or Sununu-R
NV(Cortez Masto-D) Laxalt-R or Amodei-R
CO(Bennet-D) Coffman-R or Stapleton-R
AZ(McCain seat) assuming Democrats win it in 2018/2020 Special Election.

2018- Democrats hold onto every Democratic held seat up in 2018 plus pick up AZ and NV 51D 49R
2020- Democrats hold onto every Democratic held seat up in 2020 except AL, plus pick up AZ,CO,and NC. 53D 47R
Democrats win the 2020 US Presidential Election.
2022- Democrats lose NH but hold onto AZ,CO, and NV due to increase in Hispanic VAP.

If Trump or Pence are still in the White House,
PA(Toomey-R), WI(Johnson-R), NC(Burr-R), and FL(Rubio-R) are vulnerable

December 19, 2017

2018 and 2020 US Senate Election Rating

AZ(OPEN-Flake-R)Tossup Democratic (Sinema-D vs McSally-R), Lean Democratic(Sinema-D vs Ward-R)
CA(Feinstein-D) Solid Democratic
CT(Murphy-D) Solid Democratic
DE(Carper-D) Solid Democratic
FL(Nelson-D) Tossup/Lean Democratic if Scott-R runs, Lean/Likely Democratic if Scott-R doesn't run.
HI(Hirono-D) Solid Democratic
IN(Donnelly-D) Tossup Democratic
ME(King-I)Solid Independent
MD(Cardin-D)Solid Democratic
MA(Warren-D)Solid Democratic
MI(Stabenow-D)Solid Democratic
MN(Klobuchar-D)Solid Democratic
MN(Smith-D)Lean/Likely Democratic
MS(Wicker-R)Solid Republican with Wicker-R, Likely Republican with McDaniel-R.
MO(McCaskill-D)Tossup Democratic
MT(Tester-D)Lean/Likely Democratic
NE(Fischer-R)Solid Republican
NV(Heller-R)Tossup Democratic with Heller-R, Lean Democratic with Tarkanian-R
NJ(Menendez-D)Likely Democratic
NM(Heinrich-D)Solid Democratic
NY(Gillibrand-D)Solid Democratic
ND(Heitkamp-D)Lean Democratic
OH(Brown-D)Lean Democratic
PA(Casey-D)Likely Democratic
RI(Whitehouse-D)Solid Democratic
TN(OPEN-Corker-R)Lean Republican
TX(Cruz-R)Lean Republican
UT(Hatch-R)Solid Republican
VT(Sanders-I)Solid Independent
VA(Kaine-D)Likely Democratic
WA(Cantwell-D)Solid Democratic
WV(Manchin-D)Lean/Likely Democratic
WI(Baldwin-D)Likely Democratic
WY(Barrasso-R)Solid Republican
49D 49R 2I
AL(Jones-D)Tossup Republican- depending on who the Republicans nominate.
AK(Sullivan-R) Lean Republican.
AZ Special- Tossup Democratic-depending on who the Democratic and Republican Nominee is.
AR(Cotton-R) Solid Republican
CO(Gardner-R) Lean Democratic
DE(Coons-D) Solid Democratic
GA(Perdue-R) Lean Republican
ID(Risch-R) Solid Republican
IL(Durbin-D) Solid Democratic
IA(Ernst-R) Lean Republican
KS(Roberts-R) Likely Republican- assuming Sebelius-D runs.
KY(McConnell-R) Likely Republican-assuming Beshear-D or Grimes-D run assuming they narrowly lose in the 2019 KY Governors Race.
LA(Cassidy-R) Solid Republican
ME(Collins-R) Likely Republican with Collins-R, Tossup Democratic without Collins-R
MA(Markey-D) Solid Democratic
MI(Peters-D) Likely Democratic
MN(Smith-D) Likely Democratic
MS(Cochran-R) Likely Republican- assuming Hood-D runs- assuming Hood-D narrowly loses in the 2019 MS Governors Race or Cochran-R retires or loses in the primary.
MT(Daines-R) Lean Republican without Bullock-D, Tossup Democratic with Bullock-D
NE(Sasse-R) Solid Republican
NH(Shaheen-D) Lean/Likely Democratic
NJ(Booker-D) Solid Democratic
NM(Udall-D) Solid Democratic
NC(Tillis-R) Tossup Democratic
OK(Inhofe-R) Lean/Likely Republican- assuming Henry-D or Boren-D run.
OR(Merkley-D) Solid Democratic
RI(Reed-D) Solid Democratic
SC(Graham-D) Lean/Likely Republican- Graham-R is a potential victim of a primary challenge plus a credible Democratic challenger.
SD(Rounds-R) Likely Republican- assuming Herseth Sandlin-D runs.
TN(Alexander-R) Solid Republican
TX(Cornyn-R) Lean Republican
VA(Warner-D) Likely Democratic
WV(Capito-R) Solid Republican
WY(Enzi-R) Likely Republican assuming Freudenthal-D runs.
51-54D 44-47R 2I- depending on what happens in AL,ME,and MT.

December 19, 2017

Too bad Collins-R is not the ME US Senator up for re-election in 2018.

We could have used Collin's support for the GOP Tax Bill against her in 2018.
Could we be able to use Collin's support for the GOP Tax Bill against her in 2020?

December 18, 2017

2018 US House Election in TX-27- Now that Farenthold-R is retiring,

Could TX-27 be a Democratic Pickup if Solomon Ortiz Jr runs and wins the Democratic nomination?

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