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nkpolitics1212's Journal
nkpolitics1212's Journal
December 26, 2017

2018 US Senate Election- Which US Senate Race will be the MACACA of 2018?

During the 2006 US Senate Election- Democrats had gained 6 seats-PA,OH,RI,MO,MT,and VA. This put Democrats in the majority.
VA-George Allen calling a protester MACACA lead Democrats to win the 2006 VA US Senate Race and regain control of the US Senate.
In 2018- Democrats will hold onto every Democratic held seat up in 2018 and pick up AZ and NV to get to 51 seats.
Democrats could pick up additional seats in TN and TX and if they are special elections in AZ and MS, AZ and MS.
I could see TX or MS - whichever MS seat Presley-D runs for, as the 2018 MACACA US Senate Election.

December 26, 2017

2018 Governors Race- Democrats guide to majority.

Democratic Governors not up for re-election in 2018
2)LA-Bel Edwards-D
Democratic held Governorships likely to remain in the Democratic column in 2018
17)RI- Raimondo-D
Republican held Governorships likely to go to the Democratic column in 2018
23)NM-Lujan Grisham-D
Democrats need to pick up

December 25, 2017

If Republican US Senators in AK,CO,LA,MT,and NC were to resign ASAP, Democrats could gain 8 seats

due to these States having Democratic Governors.
AK- Walker is an Independent either appoints an Independent who will caucus with the Democrats or an actual Democrat Begich and Berkowitz. 51D
CO- Hickenlooper appoints either Udall,Ken or John Salazar, his former Lt Governor Joe Garcia or former 4th District Congresswoman Betsy Markey. 52D
LA- Bel Edwards appoints both of the Landrieu's Mary and Mitch. 54D
MT- Bullock appoints former state Auditor Jim Morrison. 55D
NC- Cooper appoints Hagan and Cowell. 57D
If these appointed Democratic incumbents win the 2018 Special Elections along with Special Elections in AZ and MS. 59D
Democrats pick up AZ,MS-if Wicker loses in the Republican primary,NE,TN,TX,UT-if McMullin runs and takes half of the votes away from Hatch ,and WY if Barrasso loses in the Republican primary. 66D
66 Democratic US Senators -1 vote short of removing Trump from office. Susan Collins-ME has to be the YES vote for removal.

December 25, 2017

2018 US Senate Election-maximum number of US Senate seats Democrats can have after 2018.

AZ 24D
CA 25D
CT 26D
DE. 27D
FL. 28D
HI. 29D
IN. 30D
ME. 31D
MD. 32D
MA. 33D
MI. 34D
MN Regular 35D
MN Special. 36D
MO. 37D
MT. 38D
NV. 39D
NJ. 40D
NM. 41D
NY. 42D
ND. 43D
OH. 44D
PA. 45D
RI. 46D
VT. 47D
VA. 48D
WA. 49D
WV. 50D
WI. 51D
AZ Special??? 52D
MS Regular if McDaniel-R defeats Wicker-R in the primary. 53D
MS Special if Republicans nominate another McDaniel-R 54D
TN if Bredesen-D runs a gaffe free campaign. 55D
TX if Cruz-R makes a Macaca gaffe. 56D

December 25, 2017

US Senate Committee chairs after January 2019.

Agriculture, Nutrion, and Forestry- Stabenow-MI
Appropriation- Leahy-VT
Armed Services- Reed-RI
Banking Housing and Urban Affairs- Brown-OH
Commerce, Science, and Transportation- Nelson-FL
Energy and Natural Resources- Cantwell-WA
Environmental and Public Works- Carper-DE
Foreign Relations- Cardin-MD
Health Education Labor Pensions- Murray-WA
Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs- McCaskill-MO
Judiciary- Feinstein-CA/ Whitehouse-RI if Feinstein loses to DeLeon-D in the November General Election.
Rules and Administration- Klobuchar-MN
Small Business and Entrenapuership- Shaheen-NH
Veterans Affairs- Tester-MT
Indian Affairs-Udall-NM
International Narcotics Control- Feinstein-CA/ Heitkamp-ND if Feinstein loses to DeLeon-D in the November General Election.

December 25, 2017

Democrats regain control of the US House in 2018 and US Senate in 2020.

2018 US House
Democrats will definitely pick up
AZ-2. 1
CA-10. 2
CA-25. 3
CA-48. 4
CA-49. 5
CO-6. 6
FL-26. 7
FL-27. 8
IL-6. 9
IA-1. 10
MI-11. 11
MN-2. 12
NE-2. 13
NJ-2. 14
NJ-11. 15
NY-19. 16
NY-22. 17
TX-7. 18
TX-23. 19
VA-10. 20
WA-8. 21
Democrats will likely pick up
CA-21. 22
CA-39. 23
MN-3 24
NY-24 25
Democrats have a 50-50 chance or greater of picking up
CA-45 26
IL-12. 27
IL-13. 28
IA-3. 29
KS-2. 30
KS-3. 31
KY-6. 32
ME-2. 33
MI-8. 34
NJ-7. 35
NY-11. 36
PA-6. 37
PA-7. 38
PA-8. 39
PA-15. 40
PA-16. 41
TX-32. 42
UT-4. 43
VA-2. 44
Democrats could gain between 25 to 44 seats in the US House depending on how big the wave is.
2018 US Senate Election
Democrats will pick up
AZ-Sinema-D 50
NV- Rosen-D. 51
If there is a special election in AZ in 2018 - Kelly-D 52
Democrats could lose
IN-Donnelly-D. 51
MO-McCaskill-D 50
2020 US Senate Election
All of the Democratic held US Senate seats up in 2020 including MI-Peters,MN-Smith,NH-Shaheen,and VA-Warner are from States the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee will carry in the November 2020 General Election. All of the Democratic held US Senate seats up in 2020 will remain in the Democratic column. 49 without AZ special, 50 with AZ Special.
Democrats will pick up
AZ Special- Democratic Nominee will range from Kelly-D to Friese-D 50D
CO- Democratic Nominee will range from Hickenlooper-D to Johnston-D 51D
ME-if Collins-R is not the Republican Nominee. 52D
MT-if Bullock-D is the Democratic Nominee. 53D
NC- Democratic Nominee will range from Cooper-D to Rosen-D 54D

December 24, 2017

2018 US House and Senate Elections-seats that will put Democrats back in the majority.

2018 US House Election
AZ-2(McSally-R) 195D
CA-10(Denham-R) 196D
CA-25(Knight-R) 197D
CA-39(Royce-R) 198D
CA-48(Rohrabacher-R) 199D
CA-49(Issa-R) 200D
CO-6(Coffman-R) 201D
FL-26(Curbelo-R) 202D
FL-27(OPEN-Ros Lehtinen-R) 203D
IL-6(Roskam-R) 204D
IL-12(Bost-R) 205D
IA-1(Blum-R) 206D
KS-2(OPEN-Jenkins-R) 207D
KS-3(Yoder-R) 208D
KY-6(Barr-R) 209D
MI-11(OPEN-Trott-R) 210D
MN-2(Lewis-R) 211D
MN-3(Paulsen-R) 212D
NE-2(Bacon-R) 213D
NJ-11(Frelinghuysen-R) 215D
Democrats could lose
MN-1(OPEN-Walz-D) 217D
NH-1(Shea Porter-D) 216D
Democrats need to pick up
PA-8(Fitzpatrick-R) 217D
PA-15(OPEN-Dent-R) 218D
TX-7(Culberson-R) 219D
TX-23(Hurd-R) 220D
UT-4(Love-R) 221D
VA-10(Comstock-R) 222D
WA-8(OPEN-Reichert-R) 223D
2018 US Senate Election
Safe Democratic
CA-Feinstein-D 24D
CT-Murphy-D 25D
DE-Carper-D 26D
HI-Hirono-D 27D
ME-King-I/D 28D
MD-Cardin-D 29D
MA-Warren-D 30D
MI-Stabenow-D 31D
MN-Klobuchar-D 32D
NJ-Menendez-D 33D
NM-Heinrich-D 34D
NY-Gillibrand-D 35D
RI-Whitehouse-D 36D
VT-Sanders-I/D 37D
VA-Kaine-D 38D
WA-Cantwell-D 39D
Likely Democratic
MN-Smith-D 40D
MT-Tester-D 41D
PA-Casey-D 42D
WI-Baldwin-D 43D
Lean Democratic
FL-Nelson-D 44D
ND-Heitkamp-D 45D
OH-Brown-D 46D
WV-Manchin-D 47D
Slight Democratic
AZ-Sinema-D 48D
IN-Donnelly-D 49D
MO-McCaskill-D 50D
NV-Rosen-D 51D

December 24, 2017

2020 US Senate Election rating.

AL(Jones-D) Tossup
AK(Sullivan-R) Tossup with Begich-D, Slight Republican with Berkowitz-D, Lean Republican with French-D
AR(Cotton-R or Another Republican incumbent) Solid Republican.
CO(Gardner-R) Lean Democratic. Likely Democratic Nominee- Hancock-D or whoever finishes in 2nd place in the 2018 CO Gubernatorial Primary.
DE(Coons-D) Solid Democratic
GA(Perdue-R) Lean Republican
ID(Risch-R or OPEN Seat) Solid Republican
IL(Durbin-D or OPEN Seat) Solid Democratic/ Madigan-D will be the likely Democratic nominee if OPEN seat.
IA(Ernst-R) Lean Republican
KS(Roberts-R or OPEN seat) Likely Republican assuming Davis-D or Thompson-D are the Likely Democratic Nominee.
KY(McConnell-R or OPEN seat) Likely Republican assuming Andy Beshear-D is the Likely Democratic Nominee.
LA(Cassidy-R) Likely Republican assuming Mitch Landrieu-D is the Likely Democratic Nominee.
ME(Collins-R) Likely Republican, If OPEN seat Lean Democratic.
MA(Markey-D) Solid Democratic.
MI(Peters-D) Likely Democratic.
MN(Smith-D) Likely Democratic
MS(Winner of 2018 Special Election-R) Lean Republican assuming Brandon Presley-D is the Likely Democratic Nominee.
MT(Daines-R) Tossup with Bullock-D Likely Republican without Bullock-D
NE(Sasse-R) Solid Democratic
NH(Shaheen-D) Lean Democratic
NJ(Booker-D or OPEN Seat) Solid Democratic
NM(Udall-D) Solid Democratic
NC(Tillis-R) Tossup
OK(OPEN Seat-R) Solid Republican
OR(Merkley-D) Solid Democratic
RI(Reed-D or OPEN seat) Solid Democratic. Cicilline-D will be likely Democratic Nominee if OPEN seat.
SC(Graham-R or OPEN seat) Likely Republican
SD(Rounds-R) Solid Republican
TN(Alexander-R or OPEN seat) Likely Republican
TX(Cornyn-R or OPEN seat) Lean Republican assuming Castro is the likely Democratic Nominee.
VA(Warner-D) Likely Democratic
WV(Moore Capito-R) Solid Republican
WY(Enzi-R or OPEN Seat) Solid Republican

Democrats will end up with 56 seats assuming they win MO in 2018, AZ Special in 2018 or 2020, AL in 2020, AK in 2020, MT in 2020, and NC in 2020.

December 23, 2017

2018 US Senate Election- winning both AZ US Senate Seats are Democrats guide to a majority.

Democrats will hold onto every Democratic held US Senate seat up in 2018 except for MO(McCaskill-D)-narrow margin loss. 48D
IN(Donnelly-D) narrow margin win.
FL(Nelson-D),MT(Tester-D),ND(Heitkamp-D),OH(Brown-D),and WV(Manchin-D) are high single digit margin wins.
MI(Stabenow-D)MN(Smith-D),NJ(Menendez-D or Whoever defeats him in the primary),PA(Casey-D),VA(Kaine-D),and WI(Baldwin-D) are low double digit margin wins.
The rest of the Democratic held US Senate seats up in 2018 are landslide margin wins.
Democrats pick up NV(Rosen-D) narrow to high single digit margin win and the Flake-AZ seat(Sinema-D). 50D
If McCain-AZ seat becomes open in 2018 due to McCain's resignation or death and the appointed Republican replacement losing the Republican nomination to a more controversial conservative candidate- Democrats could win that seat. 51D

December 23, 2017

2018 US Senate Election Rating- including potential special elections in AZ and MS.

AZ Regular (Sinema-D vs Ward-R) Lean Democratic 24D
AZ Special (Kelly-D vs McSally-R) Lean Democratic 25D
CA(Feinstein-D vs DeLeon-D) Solid Democratic 26D
CT(Murphy-D vs Corey-R) Solid Democratic 27D
DE(Carper-D vs Boyce-R) Solid Democratic 28D
FL(Nelson-D vs Scott-R) Slight Democratic (Nelson-D vs Jolly-R or DeSantis-R) Lean Democratic 29D
HI(Hirono-D) Solid Democratic 30D
IN(Donnelly-D vs Messer-R or Rokita-R) Slight Democratic. 31D
ME(King-I vs Brakey-R vs Pollard-D) Likely Independent. 32D
MD(Cardin-D vs Faddis-R) Solid Democratic 33D
MA(Warren-D vs Diehl-R) Solid Democratic 34D
MI(Stabenow-D vs Young-R) Likely Democratic 35D
MN Regular (Klobuchar-D vs Newberger-R) Solid Democratic 36D
MN Special (Smith-D vs Housley-R) Likely Democratic 37D
MS Regular(Wicker-R vs Bohren-D) Solid Republican 42R
MS Special(McDaniel-R vs Presley-D) Likely Republican 43R
MO(McCaskill-D vs Hawley-R) Slight Democratic 38D
MT(Tester-D vs Rosendale-R) Lean Democratic 39D
NE(Fischer-R vs Raybould-D) Likely Republican 44R
NV(Heller-R vs Rosen-D) Slight Democratic (Rosen-D vs Tarkanian-R) Lean Democratic 40D
NJ(Menendez-D vs Pezzullo-R) Likely Democratic 41D
NM(Heinrich-D vs Rich-R) Solid Democratic (Heinrich-D vs Martinez-R,Sanchez-R,or Berry-R)Likely Democratic 42D
NY(Gillibrand-D vs Hahn-R,Jones-R,or Webber-R) Solid Democratic 43D
ND(Heitkamp-D vs Campbell-R) Lean Democratic (Heitkamp-D vs Cramer-R) Slight Democratic 44D
OH(Brown-D vs Mandel-R) Lean Democratic 45D
PA(Casey-D vs Barletta-R) Likely Democratic 46D
RI(Whitehouse-D vs Nardolillo-R) Solid Democratic 47D
TN(Bredesen-D vs Blackburn-R or Fincher-R) Slight Republican 45R
TX(Cruz-R vs O'Rourke-D) Lean Republican 46R
UT(Hatch-R vs McMullin-I vs Wilson-D) Slight Independent
VT(Sanders-I/D vs Milne-R) Solid Independent/Democratic 48D
VA(Kaine-D vs Stewart-R) Likely Democratic 49D
WA(Cantwell-D vs Johnson-I) Solid Democratic 50D
WV(Manchin-D vs Jenkins-R or Morrissey-R) Lean Democratic 51D
WI(Baldwin-D vs Nicholson-R) Likely Democratic 52D
WY(Barrasso-R vs Trauner-D) Solid Republican, (Trauner-D vs Prince-R or Friess-R) Likely Republican 47R
52D including King-ME and Sanders-VT, 47R , Which side does McMullin-UT caucus with if he is to get elected to the US Senate?
McMullin caucuses with the Republicans if Republicans had 50 seats or 49 seats before McMullin made his decision. McMullin becomes the 50th Republican US Senate Seat, VP Pence breaks the tie/
McMullin caucuses with the Democrats if Democrats had 51seats.

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