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Dr. Jack

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Member since: Fri Jan 20, 2017, 02:43 PM
Number of posts: 610

Journal Archives

538's guide on how vote counting is likey to go in every state

538 has a guide out on what to expect from every state, in terms of how long it will take to count ballots, how the results might shift around as votes are counted, as well as other interesting races in each state to keep an eye on. I don't think they are so much saying that all of the states that might take awhile to get final results won't be called before results are in (like California is expected to take awhile to count but should be projected for Biden as soon as the polls close).

It's an interesting read


Quick Tip: Pay attention to the polls now, not early next week

Nate Silver has said a few times that polls released 3 or 4 days before a presidential election are usually the most accurate to the final outcome than ones released a day or two before. So look at the polling averages over the next 24 hours. Those will more likely than not show us what the final results will look like.

PBS News: How the US has stepped up it's fight against foreign disinformation

Here is an interesting piece from this evening's PBS News Hour. It's is about why foreign disinformation is becoming so ineffective in the United States. It's a pretty reassuring video to watch. Countries like Russia have been working their asses off to mess with us but it just isn't working anymore (or at least anywhere near as effective as 4 years ago)


Who's using who?

I was reading an article today about Donald Trump's very distorted view on gender roles in our current society. He keeps talking about "suburban housewives" and "women, I'm getting your husband's back to work". The typical 1950s view of the United States that Trump has. However, that does make me wonder, how much of Trump's view of the world is his own and how much has he adopted from the worst elements in this country since taking office?

Trump has always been a terrible person and totally out of touch with how the majority of the people in this country feel. He's also a dumbass which of course doesn't help. I do believe he has always been a racist, sexist asshole. But it seems to be getting worse or at least more brazen. That does make me wonder just how much more distorted has Trump's view of America become since he took office?

He currently talks about women like they generally don't hold jobs, about cities in the US like they are being burned to the ground by gangs, and about threats of things like communism taking hold in the United States. My question is, who's using who? Is Trump coming up with all of this batshit nonsense as a way to scare his base in a desperate hope of winning the election. Or, is his base pushing him even further into the abyss? By that I mean, did the ultra right wing white supremacists pushing Trump to become even more extreme by stroking his ego? He is, above all else, a very isolated and gullible person. Have the white supremacists convinced Trump that they are in fact the majority (maybe they believe they are as well, who knows) and he is actually saying what most people in this country believe?

So is trump using the white supremacists and neo Nazis, hoping their passion will push him over the top, or are the Nazis convincing a very dumb and out of touch president that they are the average American, which is in turn causing him to parrot their insane message by stroking his extremely fragile ego?

Is he the King Nazi or is he just a puppet?

Opposite world electoral vote map

With 6 days to go, Trump is down by about 9 points nationally but still there are some people saying "what if the polls are wrong!" Or "what if Trump turns things around in the final few days". Well, I decided to see what the opposite would look like. What would it be like of Trump was ahead by 9 points nationally to see how confident we would be about winning next week. Here is what I came up with.


I don't know about you but if that is where the polls were showing the race, I wouldn't feel confident about Biden turning things around by next Tuesday.

NBC News Election Update: Biden 279, Toss Up 134, Trump 125

NBC's electoral vote update it out for today. The major changes is that Arizona moved from a lean Biden to a tossup and Texas moved from lean Trump to tossup. I'm ok with that trade I think.

But anyways that puts the updated electoral vote at

Biden: 279 solid or lean states

Tossup: 134

Trump: 125 solid or lean states

I think it goes without saying that things are looking very promising 7 days before the election


Ted Cruz: Hunter Biden attacks don't move 'a single voter'

Normally I don't care what the Zodiac Killer has to say about anything but I think this statement by him today is important. He is admitting that the Hunter Biden attacks have fell absolutely flat with voters and he seems to be signaling that Trump has wasted what precious little time was left in the election rambling about a story that most either didn't believe or didn't care about. This is one of Trump's closest allies all but admitting the Hunter Biden narrative was a massive mistake for Republicans to focus on. Say what you will about him but Cruz definitely isn't dumb. He sees the writing on the wall and seems to have given up on trying to help, almost giving a post mortem assessment of Trump's failed campaign or is trying to distance himself by coming out and more or less saying "what a fucking idiot Trump has been". If I was a Republican, I wouldn't feel good about someone like Ted Cruz giving a somewhat somber view of Trump's final days in this election.

Edit: Again, let me reiterate that I'm not posting this and saying "Ted Cruz is one of the good Republicans" or that we should be welcoming Ted Cruz's insights in general. Instead I think it's proof that Trump's enablers, who were more opportunists instead of die hard Trump cult member, are quickly distancing themselves from Trump because they expect a brutal election night. When it comes to the election, that is good news. Beyond that I have no respect or love for Cruz and I'm not saying that "all is forgiven!" when it comes to people like Ted Cruz. Just what he is hinting at in this interview, which is a likely Trump landslide defeat due to his own bullshit agenda and concerns.

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) says he doesn't think that President Trump's attacks on Hunter Biden will move even one voter.

Cruz told Jonathan Swan of Axios in an interview that Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden's "best moment" in the Oct. 22 debate came when he brushed off Trump's attacks on his family and turned to the camera to tell viewers that their families matter more.

"One of Biden's best points was when he said all these attacks back and forth about my family and [Trump's] family, they don't matter. What matters is your family. That may have been Biden's best moment, actually," Cruz said.


Trump and the MAGA crowd are severely out of touch with average Americans

Earlier in this election, let's say 6 months ago, for the most part I knew that Trump was very likely to lose when all is said and done. Yes, it's not quite over yet but....I think we all know where this is headed. However, a small part of me wondered, what if the MAGA crowd was right? And I think in a way that is something we have all considered. What if the polls are wrong? Maybe people don't care that much about coronavirus? Maybe that bizarre "law and order" bullshit is what Americans are concerned with? At times, I think we have all thought "oh god, what if that does work?". What if that dumb Hunter Biden stuff does affect the polls? What if people do believe it?

This election, far far more so than any other, is an election of dueling realities. On our side, we are saying "covid is real and it's a problem", "the economy is in shambles", "look at what the polls say", etc. And on their side "no one cares about this fake Chinese virus!", "The economy is fine, look at the dow jones", "the polls are all fake, look at 2016!", "People care about crime in cities and Hunter Biden, not fake news lies about Trump!".

The issue is that with the election drawing to a close and the way things are currently playing out, it's starting to come into focus which side was correct all along and it has been us. People do care about COVID. Based on fundraising totals and early voting, the polls do seem to be correct. No one seems to give a shit about "law and order" or some fringe Breitbart stories where Rudy Giuliani hands out child porn and says he got it from Joe Bidens random son that no one has even heard about.

That is why I believe when people look back and study this election, not only will they say "Trump and the Republicans lost badly" but they will say there was a systemic problem on the right in 2020 of the Republicans, particularly Trump and has red hat base, being totally out of touch with what Americans care about. People are going to say "during the worst pandemic in 100 years and the worst economic crash since the great depression, Trump decided to focus his campaign on an exaggerated message of crime in cities and bizarre conspiracy theories about child sex slaves". The view is going to be that Trump and had base got so caught up in their right wing echo chamber that they failed to listen to what the majority of people were saying. And they will say it was to the point where it got so bad that even Republicans were backing the Democratic candidate. People are going to look at videos and articles from Trump and his enablers one day and say "they were living in a totally different universe than everyone else".

The lesson future politicans will take away from 2020 is to take a broad view of the electorate and not to let yourself get caught up in your own media bubble that is increasingly codependent and divorced from reality.

Biden's national lead is trending back up at 538

Normally I wouldn't make an entire post about such things but with that bullshit Rasmussen poll out today showing Trump up by 1 point, I have seen a small number of people freaked out. If, for some reason you still think Rasmussen isn't total trash that has zero value, then take heart, Bidens national lead actually trended up on 538 today. He was hovering around +9 the last few days (still an absolutely amazing lead a week before the election) but now he is at +9.4. With a week to go until the election, Trump's deficit in the polls is actually increasing. No guarantees it will stay at 9.4 or keep rising but right here, right now, with only a week to go, our boy had another great day.


Can we just say it? At least once?

Every piece of good news I have read this year about the election always ends up spawning tons of comments along the lines of "dont get complacent!", "the only poll that matters is the one of election day!", "Just vote!", etc. Yes yes, that's all well and good but can we just say it, at least once, right now that Trump is going to lose and it isn't going to be close? The mother fucker is down by double digits with a week to go before the election, he has never polled ahead, is out of money and the country is collapsing around us. Yet those of us on the left are still like "I don't know, anything could happen, remember 2016, I don't want to get me hopes up." I get that attitude but at the same time, come on! Can we just, among us, say what is clearly staring us right in the face? Can we just say that we are going to win this election? Are we going to keep going with this PTSD "oh my god just vote!" attitude until all of the votes are counted? Are we really going to act like Biden having realistically a 95% chance of winning like it's a toss up?

I mean I get it but at the same time...come on
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