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Dr. Jack

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Member since: Fri Jan 20, 2017, 02:43 PM
Number of posts: 610

Journal Archives

It's been 3 days since the NY Post's article

You know, about the "bombshell" Hunter Biden emails that are totally real and not fakey fake bullshit? That earth shattering news of one of the greatest political scandals in history, the Republicans say. I'm sure you remember how Biden's presidential bid is over after these shocking and totally believable revelations.

Well we are starting to get polls after the worst criminal act in American history was exposed by totally not batshit insane Russian stooge Rudy Giuliani. And brace yourselves. Bidens average polling lead at 538 went from 10.3 before the news broke all the way down to 10.6.

Guys we were so close but damn they got us again with emails. When will we learn! Pack it up. It's over. Damn damn damn

This election doesn't feel as rough as predicted

I remember during the primaries that there were predictions for a lot of people that this election was going to be absolutely brutal. Like nothing we have ever seen before. Just the dirtiest, most batshit election we have ever experienced. While it's not quite over yet, am I the only one who thinks it hasn't been as bad as predicted? Sure, Trump is a rambling, racist moron who says a lot of crazy shit but I often find that to be more irritating than threatening. You could point out the deaths from coronavirus but that isn't because of the election. That is because trump is dangerously incompetent.

Maybe I'm numb to the chaos or maybe covid just tamped down a lot of the potential for craziness. Or perhaps we are all used to trump and his bag of tricks by now that he's easy to outflank and counter. And maybe it's because Biden is such an even tempered candidate that the dirty politics and chaos just haven't taken hold? Whatever the case, this election feels more odd and less like the most brutal, batshit election I've ever seen. Am I the only one who think that?

Reminder: The Senate has tons of time to ram through judges and harass Hunter Biden

But they just don't have any time to pass an economic stimulus. Not a single moment to spare. Launching an investigation into clearly fake emails supposedly written random person who isn't in charge of anything important? Yes, there's time for that. Your family is running out of food and can't afford to pay rent? Tough shit. Republicans have conspiracy theories and psychotically right wing judges to focus on.

So they are trying Comey Letter Redux?

Those likely fake Hunter Biden emails that were suddenly "found" right before the election sure seems like Trump is trying to have some kind of repeat of the Comey Letter from 2016. Emails suddenly "found" on a laptop with Republican hopes that it will reignite a dead scandal days before the election and Rudy Giuliani is involved? That describes both the Comey Letter in 2016 and these emails that they are claiming came from Hunter Biden. The GOP really isn't that stupid, right? That is the exact same series of events. Are they really so out of ideas that they are trying to forcibly recreate an event from 4 years ago?

2017 French Presidential Election

I have read articles all year about how this election is just like 2016 or just like 1992 or just like 1984 or just like 1968 or just like 1948. I've also read articles that compare Trump to George HW Bush, Reagan, Jimmy Carter, Herbert Hoover, and even Jeb Bush. Or how Biden is just like Hillary Clinton, Obama, Bill Clinton, Ronald Reagan, Jimmy Carter, or George Dewey. There are a lot of claims that this election is like this previous American election or that Biden or Trump are just like such and such politican from our history. But I do wonder if we shouldn't be looking outside of the U.S. to see where this election is headed and I propose we look at France in 2017. There are a lot of parelles with how this election is going and how I think it will end up, except for the final margins being quite so lopsided. In the 2017 French Presidential election they had Le Pen, an ultra right wing populist candidate with little political experience running against a well qualifed moderate. Her campaign was super racist, relied on Russian propaganda, and claimed that the polls were all fake. She had a rabid base of support but was reviled and feared by pretty much everyone else. Macron, her opponent, was a moderate, fairly well liked and smart guy, all be it more run of the mill and less exciting than Le Pen (although that was probably for the best). He was backed by a broad coalition of liberals, moderates, indendents, and even long time conservatives who banded together to block Le Pan from coming close to winning. During the entire run up to election day (especially the run off election) people said the polls couldn't be trusted, that Le Pen could absolutely win, and that the election might be a lot closer than people were thinking. But then she lost by 33 points, which is what the polls predicted.

And that is why I submit to all of you that the 2017 French Presidential election is the closest parallel to the 2020 U.S. Presidential election than any past American election and that Trump and Biden most closely resemble Le Pen and Macron, not any past American presidential candidates. Thoughts?


Messing around on 538

It's a very slow, boring day at work, so I decided to mess around on 538. Here is some fun, random information I found about the state of the Presidential election:

Electoral vote based on which candidate is leading in each state:

Biden 368
Trump 170

Electoral votes based on states that each candidate has over an 80% chance of winning

Biden 275
Trump 123

Electoral votes based on states that each candidate has over a 90% chance of winning

Biden 255
Trump 104

Interesting states that Biden has a higher percentage chance of winning than Trump has of winning the election (Trump is currently at 13%)

Iowa: 43% chance of a Biden win
Texas: 31%
Alaska: 22%

Interesting states that Biden has roughly the same odds of winning as Trump has of winning the election

South Carolina:12% chance of a Biden win
Missouri: 10%
Montana: 10%
Kansas: 7%

Projected vote totals: Experts expect about 150 million votes in this presidential election

Biden: 80,250,000
Trump 67,800,000

Biden +12,450,000 votes

Trump Won't Travel Over Weekend, Ending Florida Rally Plan

Source: Bloomberg

President Donald Trump will remain at the White House this weekend, people familiar with the matter said, after he said he wanted to hold rallies in Florida and Pennsylvania despite questions over the stage of his recovery from Covid-19.

Trump, who told Fox’s Sean Hannity late Thursday that he wanted to hold rallies Saturday and Sunday, won’t travel until Monday at the earliest, said the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Read more: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-09/trump-won-t-travel-over-weekend-ending-florida-rally-plan?srnd=premium

I'm shocked. This isnt the news I was expecting

Biden is as likely to win Mississippi as Trump is to win Pennsylvania

I was doing some digging around at 538 because I don't feel like actually working right now, and I found some interesting odds in various states that I think really puts the state of the election into prospective.

As I said in the title, 538 has the odds in Pennsylvania, the total must win state for Trump, at Biden 86% to Trump's 14%. Mississippi is at Trump 87% and Biden at 13%. So right now Biden is as likely to win Mississippi as Trump is to win Pennsylvania.

Let's look at some other must win states or states Trump is targeting

Wisconsin: Biden 84% chance, about the same as Trump's odds of winning Missouri, where he is at 87%

Michigan: Biden 91%. Trump is as likely to win there as Biden is in Kansas

Minnesota: Biden 90% chance. Trump is as likely to win Minnestoa as Biden is to win Alaska

NE 2: Biden at 74% chance of winning. Trump is as likely to win NE 2 as Biden is to win Texas

Here are some more out there states that Trump and Republicans have talked about flipping

Oregon: Trump has a 3% chance there, same as Biden's odds in Alabama

Nevada: Trump has a 14% chance, similar to Biden's odds of winning Montana

New York: Trump has a less than 1% chance of winning. It is more likelly that Biden would win Kentucky, South Dakota, or Arkansas than Trump winning New York


Donald Trump is risking a Covid election blowout

“Don’t be afraid of Covid” was Donald Trump’s message on leaving hospital this week. To say he was tempting fate would be an understatement. The US president could not know where the disease would leave him. He ought to know that the only way he could win re-election is by focusing on anything but the pandemic. The polls are unequivocal on that: a clear majority of Americans do not trust what he says about the disease. That was true long before he fell sick and is likely to remain true on November 3.

It follows that Mr Trump must change the subject or take radical steps to make Americans trust his pandemic-management skills. He has instead chosen to do something solipsistic — tell Americans the pathogen can be defeated by sheer force of will. This is a rash mix. It is further depressing his poll ratings on coronavirus while making it harder for him to change the subject. The fact that Mr Trump is insisting on going ahead with next week’s presidential debate when he still may be infectious only reinforces that. 

It should be no surprise that Joe Biden’s poll leads over Mr Trump has hit double digits in Florida where a lot of retirees live, according to one recent poll. His averaged overall national lead is now near double digits. Even if those margins were halved, Mr Trump would be facing a heavy defeat. It will take more than heroic willpower to reverse that. No US presidential candidate has entered the last month of the election with a deficit that wide and gone on to win.


Total Speculation: Pelosi knows Trump is in extremely bad shape

I have a theory and the more news we are getting today, the more I think it's correct. The Speaker of the House would likely have tons of inside information and people keeping tabs on individuals like Trump. That shouldn't be all that shocking. Powerful people get tons of information sent to them. Assuming that is indeed the case, Pelosi probably knows better than most people what kind of shape Trump is truly in. It is already extremely hard to believe that he has "beaten covid" as he and his supporters claim. In reality, even with the best medical care in the world (although he is obviously ignoring a lot of medical advice) Trump is still going to have a very rough time actually recovering from Covid.

So, if I'm correct, Pelosi may very well know that Trump is on his last legs, in one way or another, and that is why she is so comfortable to push the 25 amendment. Otherwise, if she was just shooting from the hip, it would be a suggestion that would carry quite a bit of risk without any guarantee it would help anything. Why take a risk with the election only 26 days away and the Democrats polling in landslide territory in the Presidential race, House, and Senate. If Trump wasn't any more of a danger than he usually is or if he was doing ok, then the Dems would be more than happy to sit back and let him implode with all of his deranged twitter screaming and green screen videos.

It wouldn't make any sense unless Pelosi knows something is up. Combine this with Carl Bernstein saying Republican Senators are getting freaked out because they think or know Trump is hiding serious health problems, and Pence canceling his campaign stops. I think something is up....
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