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Dr. Jack

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Member since: Fri Jan 20, 2017, 02:43 PM
Number of posts: 610

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Nate Silver seems to be saying the writing is on the wall at this point

Nate Silver has had a series of posts on twitter today and the impression I am getting is that he's feeling much more confident in saying that the writing is on the wall for Trump at this point. He is doing is usual hedging, a bit, but overall he seems to be saying that Trump is probably fucked.

Here is what the prophet has to say:

I know this point was made repeatedly last night including by me, but after sleeping on it, I wonder if people aren't still underrating the importance of the debate having been Trump's best remaining opportunity to climb back into the race and it seemingly having been squandered. Trump can win. It's mathematically possible that polls could be waayyy off or something could come from totally out of the blue. But there are also a lot of things working against him in the final 11 days. COVID cases are rising. He's way behind in $. And 50m have already voted....I think the takes were right directionally, but this is a weird case where a non-event (the debate probably won't change many minds) is a big deal and maybe people are underestimating it magnitude-wise. On top of that, the WSJ fiasco with the Hunter Biden story was probably the last chance for that story to be taken seriously by the mainstream/non-partisan media, for better or worse. There really is kind of a parallel universe of Trump-friendly polls that are on a completely different planet from the polling consensus. The polling world is not unlike the rest of the media in that regard.

I combined all of his tweets into one paragraph, including some clarifications he made to people's questions about what he is saying. But nothing is missing from what he said and these are not taken out of context. If you want to find all of the things he said today, you have to dig through some of the replies.


Any polls out yet?

It seems like we should have some post debate polls by now. Anyone heard anything? I'm aware it doesn't really matter but as a political junkie I can't go to bed until I get another hit of those poll numbers.

Frank Luntz Undecided Voter Panel Results

3 panel membet said the debate was too uncivil

5 said Trump was too angry

6 asked who the two men on stage are

12 requested a 2nd juice box

8 said they thought they were attending a Tony Robbins seminar but must have got on the wrong hotel shuttle bus at the airport

Why does the media still treat Trump like he's a normal politician?

A bit of a lunch time rant. Every god-damned day I see headlines or articles about how Trump can turn things around. How there is still time. He just needs to do this and this and this then maybe he will close the polling gap and win over voters.

Fucking stop.

The issue is that the media continues to treat Trump like he is a normal, intelligent politician. Why are people still expecting Trump, after all these years, to suddenly not be Trump?

Here's the problem, he's not going to follow any advice and the expection that he will is beyond ridiculous. The guy is not intelligent, he has no impulse control, he is surrounded by people who don't know what they are doing, and he can't admit mistakes. He's not going to suddenly start acting normal or take advice on becoming more professional and presidential.

For example, I keep seeing articles about how Trump should approach the debate tonight. He hasn't spent 1 minute preparing for the debate tonight. His first debate performance was a disaster because he doesn't know how to debate. His townhall last week was a bizarre shit show because he doesn't know how to answer questions, seeing as he is a total dumbass. You don't need a crystal ball to know how it's going to go tonight. He's going to do a shitty job and it isn't going to help his electoral position. Maybe he will scream. Maybe he will be a whiney downer. Maybe he will be a rambling moron. Doesn't matter. It's going to be shit because he is in way over his head but doesn't realize it.

So stop trying to give Trump advice. Stop saying "he just has to do this or this". He isn't going to listen and even if he did, he had no ability to actually act on any of it. He's a psychotic dumbass. There isn't going to be a turn around performance tonight. There isn't going to be a pivot. He isn't going to become disciplined. Why is it taking people so long to figure this out?

USC Dornsife: Biden +12 nationally

See, let's not panic about 1 poll. Bidens average lead among the 9 national poll out just today is 8.8 points. Up from 8.5 in all of the polls released yesterday. Everyone breathe and don't let 1 random poll ruin your day


Fox News Poll: Biden +3

New Fox News Poll shows the race tightening significantly from Biden +9 to Biden +3 over the past two weeks. Now at Biden 47% and Trump 44%.

Shoot sorry, I got that wrong. That's from 2008. With a week to go before the election, Fox had a poll where Obama only had a 3 point lead over McCain down from his previous poll of +9. It almost seems like if we just cherry pick polls, we can find all sorts of crazy results. The exact same day, CBS had Obama +11. Pay attention to the averages and don't freak out over random, individual polls. You'll drive yourself insane and it will all be for nothing.


Trump gained 12 million voters yesterday

I am hearing a lot of panic over a poll showing Trump down by 2 points and what that can mean. If that poll is correct, as some people seem to be saying, then we can only assume Trump closed a roughly 11 point national gap, which is close to where 538 had him just 24 hours ago to 2 points. If you are wondering what that means if that did indeed happen is that Trump gained roughly 12 million new voters yesterday. Based on estimates of the projected turnout for 2020, the 9 points trump supposedly made up yesterday translates to 12 million people. Or roughly the entire population of Illinois. If you buy that Trump is suddenly down by only two then you need to also accept that Trump gained about 12 million new supporters yesterday.

Or maybe it's just an outlier and with dozens of polls being released everyday now, maybe a few are going to have some weird results? Maybe let's not try to analyze each and every poll?

Nate Silver wrote this article two days ago about how to stay sane during the final two weeks. Maybe take his advice

5. Don’t pay much attention to individual polls; wait for polling averages to move.
This is perhaps the single piece of advice we give most often at FiveThirtyEight, but it’s especially important in the final couple weeks of a campaign. After a lull this weekend, there are likely to be a lot of polls the rest of the way out. On any given day, it will be possible to take the two or three best polls for Biden and tell a story of his holding or expanding his lead, or the two or three best polls for Trump and make a claim that the race is tightening.

Resist buying too much into those narratives. Instead, turn to polling averages like FiveThirtyEight’s that are smart at distinguishing (ahem) the signal from the noise. We do program our averages to be more aggressive in the closing days of the campaign — so if there’s a shift in the race, our average should start to detect it within a few days. But while there is such a thing as underreacting to news developments,1 the more common problem in the last days of a campaign is false positives, with partisans and the media trying to hype big swings in the polls when they actually show a fairly steady race.


The MAGA crowd have lost their minds

I like to make the rounds to right wing discussion forums to see what they are on about this time. After spending about an hour reading through what the red hats had to say this evening, I have come to the conclusion that they have lost their damn minds. The desperation of their situation and the denial they are in is cranked up to 11. Some of the major highlights include: Trump is going to win California, Alex Jones has proof the Hunter Biden emails are real, Joe Biden and Hunter Biden will be arrested any moment now, OAN is sitting on a major Biden scandal, and general agreement that Sanders supporters are now pro-Trump.

They have themselves whipped into a manic, almost religious like frenzy right now. It is insane to see. They are going to crash so hard on election day.

I never should have doubted Joe Biden

I’ve always liked Joe Biden. I enjoyed watching him do interviews on MSNBC, The Daily Show, and Bill Maher back in the early to mid 2000s. He always seemed like an easy going but smart and hard working guy. I really liked him as Obama’s VP. I thought he did a great job and many of the successes during the Obama years were thanks in no small part to Joe Biden. And yet, when he announced he was running for President in 2019, I was at best luke warm on the idea. I was always going to vote for him if he was the nominee but I wanted him less than pretty much anyone else running. I thought he couldn’t beat Trump. I thought he was past his prime and even a bit of a goof or a fool. I became rather anti-Biden for awhile and after everything I have seen from Joe this year, I have no idea what I was thinking.

I voted for Sanders when the primaries came to my state and that was after Biden was virtually guaranteed to win the nomination. It was a protest against what I thought was a terrible choice for the Democratic nominee. I was still going to vote Biden in the general but I thought we were heading for a huge defeat against Trump regardless.

But then I saw Biden again for who he truly is again. As it became more and more obvious that he was going to be the Democratic nominee, he quickly stepped up and took charge. He showed us what a real leader looked like. And over the Spring, Summer, and Fall, he has show that he isn’t just “a generic Democrat” or “good enough”, he’s an amazing candidate and an amazing man. He is knowledgeable, hard working, and tough. But he is also kind, compassionate, and empathetic. And importantly, he stepped up to take on Donald Trump when he didn’t have to because he is the best man for the job. He knew he was going to need to go through absolute hell to defeat Trump, withstanding fake accusations that he is pedophile and a rapist, and even attacks on his own family. Possibly even his own son’s private pictures and emails being hacked into and leaked from when he was in drug rehab, just in a vain hope by his political enemies that it might damage him.

He stepped up anyway because he has always been the best person to defeat Trump and to save our democracy. Joe Biden is a great man and will make a great President. I’m not just voting against Trump. I am excited to vote for Joe Biden!

Growing up in the early 1990s

I never would have thought that the guy who had a 2 second cameo in Home Alone 2 would end up trying to be a dictator of the United States but like a really weak, shitty one who can't stop having strokes.
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