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Dr. Jack

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Member since: Fri Jan 20, 2017, 02:43 PM
Number of posts: 610

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Summary of Trump's current election lawsuits and vote count demands



So...Biden won, right?

I know the final announcement hasn't been made but I have been watching the betting markets all day and Biden is at about 90% on those right now and the Republicans on those sites keep saying it's over and Biden won. I know we have to still be weary because Trump is clearly not handling this well but can I finally breathe again? Can I go to sleep tonight and not have to worry about headlines like "Trump Reelected" tomorrow morning?

Jesus fuck what a shit show

Seems like a fitting end to this election. It appears we knocked out the orange menace, which is ultimately all that matters, but good God America why was it so close?! I think when all is said and done we will say "Trump really wasn't going to win" and I am aware how difficult it is to defeat an incumbent president but this never should have been a narrow Dem victory. A win is a win but man this country is fucked in the head.

So things are looking pretty good?

I went to bed at 11:00 last night since nothing was happening but it sounds like we are on track to take Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona no? It might not be a blowout but Biden seems to be favored, right? That's the impression I'm getting. Am I wrong?

Charlie Cook: Expect a 9-10 point Biden win today

Carlie Cook over at the Cook Political Report released his final thoughts and predictions on where this election is headed. He has been a bit more bullish and less equivocal about Bidens chances of victory. He believes that sites like RCP and 538 aren't being selective enough with their polling averages, so a lot of shitty right wing numbers are getting thrown in. He believes that Biden is looking at a 9-10 point win nationally and not a 7-8 point win. He also doesn't think the polls are underestimating Trump.

The RealClearPolitics average of national polls pegs Bidenís lead at 7.4 points, 51.1 to 43.7 percent. But thatís a less discriminating measure, including as it does some mediocre surveys, some that seemed congenitally slanted toward one side or the other, and some that would be better utilized lining hamster cages. The FiveThirtyEight modeled average of national polls, which is more selective than the RCP average but still includes some surveys that I consider rather sketchy, puts the Biden lead at 8.8 points, 52 to 43.2 percent.

I believe his actual lead is more like 9 or 10 points, based on the higher-quality, live-telephone-interview national polls conducted since the first debate, as well as the gold standard of online polling, the Pew Research Centerís mammoth poll of 11,929 voters released two weeks ago.


What I am wondering is if this will be one or the rarest species of national electionsóa wave election in a presidential year ending in a zero, meaning it will reverberate for a decade thanks to the coming redistricting. There are not a dozen Republican Senate seats that could fall, as Democrats suffered in 1980, but Joe Biden may well replicate Ronald Reaganís 10-point victory over President Carter. The odds are it will be a bit less, perhaps in the 53 to 44 percent range, with 3 percent going to independents and write-ins, half of the number from four years ago.


How are things looking so far?

It's still quite early but how are things looking? All I've heard about is high turnout in Philadelphia and high black voter turnout in South Carolina. Both sound good for Biden but I haven't heard much beyond that in any other state or in Republican strongholds. Are we doing well so far?

Is anyone else strangely calm today?

Unlike election day 2016, where I was a nervous wreck all day, I feel oddly calm and unconcerned today. In fact it is the most at ease and optimistic I have been on an election day since 2008. I'm aware Trump isn't 100% guaranteed to lose and that the stakes are insanely high but I'm just not that worried about it. Hopefully I'm not in denial and reality won't hit me square between the eyes tonight but I just don't feel like there really is much of a chance of is losing tonight.

Some might say "remember 2016!" but I wasn't one of those people who though Hillary had it in the bag (were there people who actually thought that?). It felt like it was going to come down to the wire and while I felt Hillary was more likely to win than not, I certainly wasn't calm or confident on election day. But today, I'm at like a 3 out of 10 in terms of stress. A bit of excitement over such a big day but not the least bit anxious.

I guess I am wondering, how's everyone else feeling? Is anyone else just in typical Tuesday morning mood or am I alone in that regard?

Two things to remember today

Just two quick things to keep in mind today

1. Republican turnout in this election will likely be high, that is something that has been expected all year, so don't freak out if there are reports of high turnout in GOP areas.

2. Don't pay too much attention to exit polls. They aren't meant to just be taken at face value as the final results. Despite what many people think, that isn't what they are designed for so don't use them as a preview of how the results will look. It's a massive waste of time.

Other than that, let's fucking do this

Win or lose, Joe did great

While I think Biden will win quite handily, I'm actually more at ease than any election since 2008, I do want to say that no matter what happens, Joe did a great job this year. With most elections I have followed, even the ones where our side wins, I always have moments of frustration with our candidate. That shouldn't be surprising. Politicians are human too and make mistakes. However, Biden has had a near flawless campaign. No matter scandals or "gaffes". His message has been dead on. His speeches have been great. His debate performances were amazing. The Democratic Convention was well done. Kamala Harris is a great running mate. Joe Biden brought together Democrats across the spectrum, along with a ton of independents and not an insignificant amount of Republicans. Joe and his team really stepped up this year to take on a disgusting, awful human being. In the end, the Democrats did a great job this year. I wouldn't have changed a thing.

With that said, let's fucking end this!

I got high and had a vision of election night results

I used the mystical powers of marijuana to look into the future while listening to Oasis...or something and here is the vision I had of the final election results. Lets see if weed can be used to see into the future, shall we

Biden: 53.1%
Trump: 44.8%

Biden +8.3

Electoral vote

Biden 391
Trump 147

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