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Dr. Jack

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Member since: Fri Jan 20, 2017, 02:43 PM
Number of posts: 610

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Are Republicans gearing up to abandon Trump?

There is this Vanity Fair article from early July saying people around McConnell were told that if Trump didn't turn around his crappy polling numbers that the Senate GOP would basically leave Trump to his fate ( no more defending him, no fundraising for him, etc). They said back in late June or early July that the deadline to turn his campaign around was Labor Day. Here is the article


Obviously we are past Labor Day and Trump's polling position seems to be even worse than it was back then, not better. In the last few days, we have had revelations about what Trump said about the military in private, the Woodward recordings, and now the DHS whistleblower. I don't know how much of these new revelations about Trump are secretly from Republicans, if at all. But the timing all seems interesting. We get past Labor day and suddenly trump is under siege. Is there any evidence or does anyone think that the process laid out in that article is happening? Open the floodgates on information that was being held back, the Republicans can say "enough is enough we are done with Trump!" or at least distance themselves and trump is left to his fate while the GOP attempts to salvage what they can in other races?

Is Trump's reelection campaign on the verge of collapsing?

There is a lot of news swirling around the past few days that makes me wonder if Trumpís reelection campaign is about to totally collapse. There is news that his campaign is nearly bankrupt due to stupid investments and I would imagine, embezzlement from pretty much everyone involved. He has pulled all ads from pretty much every state he needs to win, likely again because his campaign is completely broke. Bob Woodward and The Washington Post have recordings of Trump from early February talking about how bad coronavirus would get but he chose to lie to the public about the seriousness of it. Of course we are getting more and more reports of Trump shit talking the military both in private and in public. National polls and state polls today appear to be moving aggressively in Bidenís direction. And there was that report from a few months ago that Senate Republicans were getting frustrated with Trump dragging their campaigns down and that they would start to abandon him after Labor Day if polls didnít improve. Not sure if we are seeing that yet but we are past Labor Day and Trumpís polling numbers are as shitty as ever.

Not to celebrate too early or to let our guard down but I do wonder if Trumpís entire campaign has reached the point where it is essentially imploded and that his odds of winning are close to nonexistent.

The 2018 Democratic coalition is still intact

We have been seeing a lot of articles about the state of the race between Biden and Dumbass today. Labor day is when polls really start to become historically accurate. And what I have seen a lot of these state of the race analysis is how steady Bidens lead over the demented fat ass is. What I don't know why this is much of a surprise. I think the obvious answer, which has been obvious since summer 2019, it that the coalition that win the Dems the House in 2018 is still intact. That is why Biden has been doing so consistently well for so long. In 2018, the Dems won the overall house popular vote by about 8.5 points. That is the only nationwide election we have had since 2016 and it looks pretty much like the lead Biden has had for the last year and a half, over Trump. Harry Enten pointed out today that Bidens lead has essentially been the same with only minor variations for 500 days in a row. That's because the 2018 coalition never went away. And that is also why the Dems wanted Biden this year. Like I 2018, moderate, low drama Democrats won the day. That is pretty much the definition of Biden.

And that is also why I don't think the polls are going to change or Trump is going to close the gap in the final 2 months. Americans decided years ago who they were going to support in 2020. As long as the Dems went with a safe choice, this was always going to be a Dem +8ish election.

Battle of Lake Travis


What percentage of Trump supporters know he is a shitty president and that's why they like him?

I have to imagine that there are a decent number of people who support trump because they know how much he annoys people and trolls groups they don't like. I don't necessarily think Trump is trying to troll people with his weird shit and actions. I think Trump genuinely believes he is speaking for the majority of the country and is a brilliant leader and a beloved president. I think he is blinded by narcissism and delusion. But are there people who back trump and egg him on precisely because he is pissing off "politically correct" people and causing destruction to institutions that they think are liberal hippie nonsense? And when Trump says something and then immediately contradicts it, they like pretending that him taking both positions makes sense because again it "triggers" people? And also they don't care what Trump says, as long as it causes chaos?

Again in this theory, Trump isn't aware or in on any of this. He's just a destructive idiot they shoved into an office that he is in way over his head for and that's the point.

Reminder: Trump still hasn't condemned Russia after putting bounties on American soldiers

The more you put all of the evidence together, the more you can see that Trump is not only indifferent to American troops, he seems to actively hate them.

COVID is killing The Greatest Generation and Trump doesn't care

Flashback to June when The Lincoln Project released an ad slamming Trump for letting The Greatest Generation die of coronavirus while Trump and Republicans told them to sacrifice themselves for the economy and Trumpís reelection. That definitely adds to Trump not just being indifferent to veterans but seems to actively despise them.


The dementia test, the arm and leg weakness, the mystery trip to the hospital

It all fits. Trump has clear left sided body weakness. He talked about, out of nowhere that he took a dementia test recently, and the mystery trip to the hospital for "unscheduled annual physical" at midnight. And it explains why Trump is so obsessed with Bidens mental condition. The guy had a stroke.

Trump doesn't have some grand plan, he is just making his loss way harder than it needs to be

I know we are a bit hesitant to say that Trump will almost certainly lose, just vote, don't get cocky, ECT but objectively he is probably heading for a loss, maybe even a pretty big loss. I've seen a few elections in my day, as I'm sure many of you have. I remember 1996 and 2008, where one candidate running for president had very little chance of winning. During those elections, the person who is staring down defeat tends to put on a brave face and goes down with dignity. They stay on message, act hopeful, and whatever happens happens.

With Trump, I see a George McGovern, Walter Mondale, Bob Dole or John McCain situation but without the grace or dignity in defeat. When we look at the psychotic RNC shit show, trying to destroy the post office, delay the election, or cause riots in cities (among many other awful behaviors) some people seem concerned that Trump has some grand plan. Fire up the base, suppress the vote and everything will work out for Trump in the end. But the reality seems to be that Trump has no plan. He is a man who is panicked and is just throwing everything against the wall that he thinks is going to stick. That likely seems obvious to most but I think it is important to reiterate that Trump and his team aren't brilliant strategists. They are amateurs in way, way over their heads and they are making his likely loss in November way harder than it has to be. Instead of taking a defeat in stride and keeping any dignity in tact, they are going to make this as painful and destructive as they can.

This is why having a real professional and yes a real politician is important in such powerful positions. Dragging the entire country through an epic temper tantrum will do nothing to help Trump win. All it will do is cause a lot of needless pain and suffering, and damage Trump and the Republicans long term.

On "Law and Order" Trump seems like the extremist, while Biden is middle of the road

With the protests that we have been having and Trump's continuing attempts to stir up shit, I have been thinking a lot about how Americans in general perceive everything that is happening right now. And I believe that the majority of Americans are having the same reaction that I have been. I'm a middle aged( or close to it) middle class suburban white guy. While I am a staunch Democrat, I'm fairly moderate. When I see protests against police brutality, I get it. I agree that things like George Floyd suffocating to death or an unarmed black guy being paralyzed after being shot in the back is disgusting and reforms are needed. But at the same time, I look at things like starting fires or creating "police free zones" and I am a lot less sympathetic.

However, at the same time, I don't see Joe Biden embracing or being part of the more aggressive actions by some on the left. So I don't see a protester starting a fire and think "this is what Joe Biden wants!". But when I see ultra right wing assholes picking fights, pepper spraying people, murdering people, I do think "this is what Trump wants". Both extremes are terrifying. I don't want to go downtown in my local city and see areas blockaded against the police or broken windows, but I also don't want to see guys in red hats waving guns around and trying to provoke riots.

And that is where I think Trump has grossly misread the situation and that this is going to backfire horribly on him. I, like most Americans, don't see this as "Trump's extremism against Bidens extremism". I see it as "Trump's extremism vs Bidens middle of the road, rational approach". When I look at the two choices, I see right wing thuggery vs a return to peace and quiet with moderate reforms. That is what I think a majority of people are going to be thinking in the coming weeks.
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