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Dr. Jack

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Member since: Fri Jan 20, 2017, 02:43 PM
Number of posts: 610

Journal Archives

Why don't Democrats and liberals revere Dwight Eisenhower?

I've been learning a lot of about Dwight Eisenhower, particularly his presidency, and I don't understand why Democrats and liberals don't claim him as one of their own? Yes I know he was a Republican but that was in a different era and it's not unusual for parties to claim past figures as one of them. Lincoln is revered by Democrats and not really seen as a modern Republican. So why not Dwight? Republicans largely ignore him these days, so why don't we look to him as an inspiration? Sure he wasn't 100% aligned with every aspect of modern liberalism. He was president almost 70 years ago. But he did push for increased civil rights. He was a strong proponent of the UN. He warned against the dangers of the military industrial complex. He was a key figure in the defeat of fascism. He was tough as shit, which I think modern Democrats could use a bit more of. He is a giant in American history and his legacy is there for the taking. Why don't liberals seize the opportunity?

Maybe we just shouldn't bother voting this year?

I've been reading a lot of posts last night and today about the Supreme Court fight. Many, many posts along the lines of "the Republicans are going to ram through a new justice and there won't be any consequence as usual", "this is going to rile up the Republican base and help Trump win the election", "the democrats aren't going to fight back, they never do", "Trump can now steal with election and the courts will let it happen".

It all sounds pretty hopeless. I guess the country is officially lost, America is no longer a democracy, the democrats are just going to roll over and let the republicans do literally anything they want, and voters are not going care about any of it. If that's the case, have we officially conceded the election? Is American completely dead now? If all hope is lost, should we even bother voting this year?

The pessimists have convinced me, I'm not voting this year. Why should I? There is no hope left and we have lost the war.

If that is our view of where America is as a nation, not only should be not waste our time voting, the US is not worth saving.

Unless the pessimists are wrong.....

Edit: Glad to see all of the pissed off comments telling me to fuck off. Maybe this party has some fire in if yet and isn't wallowing in depression and defeat afterall. And here I thought I was at a pity party. Maybe not?

I believe Republicans are making a massive miscalculation with the Supreme Court

McConnell has an almost obsessive focus on turning the courts into a Republican wet dream but I believe that is clouding his judgement in ways the Republicans will live to regret in the short term and the long term. Remember, all actions have consequences and the harder McConnell leans into shitting all over the unwritten rules of Washington, the more the Dems are going to push back. These things don't happen in a vacuum and there are a lot of potential, even very likely consequences that the Republicans are going to live to regret. Here are a few I see as being fairly likely

1. Republicans will go overboard with talk about outlawing all abortion in the country, taking away healthcare, and taking away other rights that is going to scare the shit out of Democrats and independents.

2. The obvious hypocrisy by McConnell, Trump, and most Senate Republicans is going to be a massive confirmation to a lot of people that the current Republican leadership has no honor and cannot be trusted. A few weeks before the election, they are going to be seen as even more like cynical, dishonest, corrupt politicians than they already are.

3. McConnell and Senate Republicans weren't willing to stay in session for coronavirus aid but is going to call everyone back for a Supreme Court fight than I'm willing to bet a solid majority of voters won't want until after a new president is elected. Trump and McConnell are already extremely unpopular. There is no way even 40% of Americans will say "I'm fine with them ramming someone through before RGB is even in the ground yet". For a party that is already seen by a good majority of voters as indifferent to death and suffering, this will increase the perception that the GOP are ghoulish opportunists

4. Democratic voters and those who want civility in politics are going to be massively riled up by this. Sure Republicans will be too but as we have seen with Trump's shitty approval numbers, the Senate Republicans shitty approval numbers, and election polls for the presidency and Senate, there are a lot more people fed up with the Republicans than who are on board with their shit. Leaning hard into doing what their base wants has been a disastrous strategy in this election. Ramming through a new justice will be like the "rile up the base" strategy on steroids. The more they rile up their base, the more the significantly larger Democratic and anti Trump voters are going to get.

5. In politics, the more you upset the balance the harder people are going to fight to restore said balance. Somewhat fringe positions even 24 hours ago, like packing the courts, getting rid of the filibuster, abolishing the electoral college are likely going to be far more mainstream. The Republicans are, in my opinion, more likely to lose the election now, not less. In 6 months they will be facing a democratic house, Senate, and white house with a progressive agenda that they are going to be powerless to stop. Republicans should be expecting a massive counter attack to their illegitimate conservative takeover of the courts.

6. Ramming someone through is going to be far more difficult than some people assume and I think McConnell shot from the hip last night without checking that he has the support to even do that from his own members. Only two more Republicans need to come forward to say no nominee before the inauguration and McConnell will seem like an ineffectual opportunist. So far Murkowski and Romney are siding with the Dems. The Arizona special election will add another dem seat in November. Seriously, its hard to believe but automatically assume the Republicans even have the votes.

This is a massive, massive political risk for the Republicans both before and after the election. The bolder they go the greater the chance they will fail. Republicans may win the battle but I believe they are quickly going to lose the war.

The worry warts are getting irritating

I have a quick thing to rant about so please bare with me. I donít know about all of you but the people that are extremely pessimistic about the election, despite how good things are looking, are getting very tiresome. I donít mean the people that say ďthese polls look good but Iím still a bit nervousĒ or ďI hope the polls are right but still, go voteĒ. Thatís fine, I understand the cautious optimism. No, there is another breed of people I see online who turn every piece of good news about the election into a 5 paragraph long rant about how screwed we all are.

For example, there was an article posted on reddit politics today which discussed the latest polls and how Trump seems to be heading for serious trouble with key demographics. High quality national polls were out today showing Biden up by 10 nationally and doing very well in key swing states. Things are looking quite promising. Sure itís not over yet but we seem to be heading for a solid Biden win. But there are so many people in the comments reacting with things like ďThis lead is no where near enough. Trump is going to everything he can to steal the election. The Russians are going to hack into our voting systems, people are going to be purged from voter rolls, there arenít going to be any voting machines, the USPS is going to be shut down. Trump is absolutely going to steal this election and there is nothing we can do about it. None of these polls matter. Trump is on his way to being a dictator. American democracy is dead. Anyone who thinks any of this matters is a fool. Itís over. Just you wait. America as we know it is gone.Ē

I get feeling a bit burned after 2016, even though polls and many experts were saying Trump had a real shot at winning. I donít personally remember ever encountering anyone saying the election was in the bag for Clinton or that Trump couldnít win. But I guess there is a sense that people got it way wrong in 2016, even if that is not really the case. Fine. And I get being nervous about President Mushroomdick fucking with things. But Jesus Christ, some people are going way, way overboard with the election anxiety and if anyone reading this is one of those people, please for the love of god, tone it down a tad, would you? The pessimism is becoming a real drag.

Yes, be weary about what Trump is up to and vote, but nothing wrong with a bit of optimism. Being optimistic isnít going to jinx the election.

Alright rant over.

New, Highly Credible Polls Offer Bad News For Trump

High quality polls are making the rounds again, finally. Now we aren't stuck with Rasmussen and Trafalgar we are getting a much clearer picture of where the race is. There have been a few political experts speculating that the bottom is falling out of Trump's support. There seems to be growing evidence that is indeed the case and that Trump is hemorrhaging support in key areas of the country


Biden seems to be quietly building a massive advantage in key areas

More polls out today, obviously. A very highly rated poll out of NC shows Biden up by 3 points. A decent and stable result. And that seems to be the picture that's building Trump has been severely outplayed. Biden seems to be consolidating his lead in key areas. Polls out this week show him doing very well in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Florida, NE 2 and ME 2. While trump is distracted by playing tin pot dictator and the right bases their entire election strategy on conspiracy theories and dismissing the polls as "fake", Biden has been quietly building up a massive advantage in key regions. By the time the Republicans realize they have been completely outflanked, it's going to be way too late for them to do anything about it. For all of the tough talk, dominating news cycles, mocking Biden and the democrats, putting on boat parades, trying to attack people's ability to vote, Trump's campaign, to put it in military terms, has likely been completely encircled but they don't know it yet.

Saw a great point made about Rasmussen and the pollsters that were "right" in 2016

I was reading comments on a political betting market this even and of course all of the Republicans are sooooper excited about that Rasmussen poll that shows the orange turd up by 1 point. Of course that ignores all of the other polls out today showing Biden by up to close to double digits. But I'm preaching to the choir on those points.

But here is the point one user made that is absolutely perfect when it comes to those right wing polls that "got 2016 right" that I never thought of before.

"The entire "Republican Pollster" industry is just a bunch of grifters who got lucky in 2016. These kinds of people were pushing these kind of polls before maybe knowing that, eventually, there would be probably eventually be an election where Republicans outperformed polls and now they're hanging onto that."

For me that was a "oh shit, that makes perfect sense" moment for me. Looking back, these pollsters were saying the same shit in 2012, 2008, 2004, 2000, etc. Just showing very good results for Republicans that are always way off. They got lucky in 2016. It was a coincidence, not some brilliant secret knowledge about the electorate. That definitely destroys the "Rasmussen got 2016 right and that is why they should be trusted in 2020".

Trump's secret weapon

I was reading an article from Harry Enten this morning about the state of the presidential race. He pointed out that Biden's lead over Trump in the polls has been the most consistent of any presidential election since modern polling started in 1940. Biden has, for the most part, been ahead in the polls by the same margin the Dems won the house by in 2018, roughly 7-8 points for over 500 days now. The electorate, he points out, has shifted by 5 points to the democrats since 2016 nationally and in swing states. That has pretty much been the case since early in his term and nothing that has happened since then has changed those numbers. Trump has been sitting at that 7-8 point deficit for years now. Unless he does something in the next 50 days, that he hasn't been able to do in the past 3.5 years, he will lose in a landslide.

However, I read every single day "anything can happen between now and the election!" "the outcome is far from certain!", "Trump can close the gap like he did in 2016!", etc, etc, etc.

So that makes me wonder. If Dems are worried that Trump will close the gap, somehow, in the final 50 days, something he hasn't been able to do at all in about 1200 days, no matter what has happened, and Republicans are fanatically confident that Trump will somehow, in these last 6 weeks, overcome that 7-8 point gap, what is Trump's secret miracle weapon to do that? What is this brilliant, secret Trump strategy that Dems fear and Republicans are 100% confident will come that is going to save Trump's reelection at the last possible second? Because personally I don't see such a secret, miracle strategy existing at all and trump is heading for a significant defeat. But people are still saying Trump can turn things around and if that is the case, his brilliant, super secret plan to win the election has to exist.

So what is it?


The coming disaster for Trump that no one is talking about

There are so many self inflicted wounds and unforced errors by Trump and his team that it seems like some that are right there, out in the open for everyone to see, still fly under the radar until said disaster comes and goes. With everything going on right now, coronavirus, the shitty economy, social unrest, Trump's campaign running out of money, the disastrous Republican convention, the Woodward tapes, the DHS whistleblower, calling troops losers and suckers, picking public fights with military leaders, it can be easy to forget just how badly Trump's team is fucking up the debates.

We are just a few weeks away from the first presidential debate and the trump teams strategy is barreling headfirst into a total disaster. Trumps plan is almost stunning in its absolute stupidity. I'm sure we have all heard about the debates being Trump's last chance to turn the race around. That's a pretty dubious claim seeing as debates rarely have much of an impact but then again that really is all trump has left. Everyone is hyper aware that Barr is going to try to pull some kind of October surprise or that the white house is going to come out with some miracle coronavirus vaccine. Most Americans are going to likely be very skeptical of any sudden revelations coming from this white house so close to the election.

So the debates are maybe Trump's last flicker of hope to finally close the rather massive gap in the polls and somehow fart out a very, very close victory, even if that is a desperate strategy. However, his plan is already doomed to fail and fail badly.

There is a dumb game that political parties play before debates, which I'm sure most of us are aware of, where they try to lower expectations for their candidate whole raising them for their opponents. In 2004, I remember the democrats talking about how amazing W was at debating whole saying Kerry had issues being too wooden and dry. Same with 2008. Obamas team played up his "inexperience" while talking about McCains mad skills. And the Republicans do the exact same thing. It's pretty obvious but also a smart move. Candidates with super high expectations tend to be seen as the loser of the debate. It happened in 2000 to Gore.

But 2020 is different. Biden and his team are certainly playing the typical game. There was an article today about how nervous Biden is to debate Trump, from Biden's team. But of course President Narcissism would never allow anyone on his team try to downplay his skills, so over the last few months team douchebag has touted Trump as one of the greatest debaters in American history, who will absolutely crush Biden. They say Biden is nearly catatonic from dementia and will likely either not show up for the debates, not be able to get through the entire debate, or more extreme theories, will be replaced as the nominee before the debates.

I don't know about you, but I've seen Trump debate and I have seen Biden debate. In fact I saw Biden debate earlier this year. He did quite well. He's likable, sharp, and really knows his stuff. In 2016, I recall Trump being a loud, rambling psychopath who couldn't stay on topic and seemed to know almost nothing about anything important. His skills at debating are nonexistent and he can't even seem to stand up straight or breathe very well most of the time.

And this is the looming disaster I don't think get enough attention. We all know trump isnt going to turn his campaign around by debating Biden. But now he has the added problem, of his own making, where if he doesn't give one of the greatest debate performances in American history and Biden doesnt collapse on the floor and slips into a coma on live tv, people are going to say Trump lost badly. Instead of being an opportunity to show he is at least minimally competent ( a tall order for Donny Two Strokes) he now has to put in a performance that would put Lincoln or JFK to shame, while Biden just has to show up.

Republicans are in the middle of a scorched earth retreat

A new article out today from The Week which proposes that the Republicans are ready to let the economy collapse. This is after their insulting stimulus bill failed to come close to passing in the Senate. I think all evidence points to the Republicans admitting they are going to lose the election (the smarter ones, not Trump who is totally delusional). Take all of the fear and emotion out of the election, all of the PTSD around 2016, and look at things objectively, Biden is almost certainly going to win. The Democrats are also going to keep the House and seem more likely than not to take the Senate. It doesn't matter if the Republicans pass a stimulus bill or not, so they won't. If they thought it would help Trump's reelection chances or help them keep the Senate, we would have had a 2nd stimulus bill months ago. Instead, the Republicans are in the middle of a scorched earth retreat. They are leaving Biden and the incoming Democrats a massive mess to deal with. That way it will be more difficult to actually start working on a progressive agenda. And when the 2022 midterms come along, they will blame the Dems for the state of the economy and try to demoralize Dem voters by saying "see, the Democrats have had total control of the federal government and haven't enacted the agenda they promised". They are going to burn the country to the ground. The Democrats are going to win this year but the toll is going to be absolutely catestrophic.

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