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Baconator

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Member since: Thu Jan 19, 2017, 01:55 PM
Number of posts: 1,365

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538.com talk about Trump's chances in 2020

Posted in GD as this is mostly about the general and not the primary.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1108389546037788672

What could Democrats have gained if they played the same sort of "hardball" in recent decades?

Just reading a story about Mitch Mcconnell and I find myself wondering what we could have gotten in the modern era (define as you like) if we played the same way? Anything short of and up to outright illegality is a valid tactic. Norms, decorum, standards be damned...

A la blocking the Supreme Court seat etc...

This would be setting aside the incredible damage that blowing up norms does of course...

Calls increase for Democratic lawmaker to resign over use of racial slur

A groundswell of Maryland elected officials — including the state’s black legislative caucus, Gov. Larry Hogan (R) and Prince George’s County Executive Angela D. Alsobrooks (D) — called Wednesday for the resignation of Del. Mary Ann Lisanti, the Har­ford County Democrat who used the n-word to describe a Prince George’s legislative district.

“We know she is one of our colleagues, we know she is a Democrat, but party has nothing to do with the hatred and bigotry that comes out of someone’s mouth,” said Del. Darryl Barnes (D), who chairs the Legislative Black Caucus of Maryland and represents part of Prince George’s County, one of the wealthiest and most highly educated ­majority-African American jurisdictions in the nation.

“There is no place in the House of Delegates for that type of language to be used,” Barnes said. “It is unacceptable, it is offensive, and it is very hurtful.”
...

Lisanti used the racial slur in late January, in a conversation with black and white lawmakers at a cigar bar in Annapolis. She told another white lawmaker that when he campaigned in Prince George’s on behalf of a candidate last fall, he was door-knocking in a “n----- district,” said Del. Jay Walker (D-Prince George’s), who witnessed the comment and represents the district in question.

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Article is a day old so posting here...

Holy crap. I'm surprised we haven't been beaten over the head with this one more. I'm relatively tuned into the news cycle and this is the first I've heard of it.

Seriously... WTF?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/maryland-democratic-party-calls-for-lisanti-to-resign-over-use-of-racial-slur/2019/02/27/7b2f819c-3a9e-11e9-a06c-3ec8ed509d15_story.html?utm_term=.f42ff4b67c75

Which 'lower tier' 2020 candidate would you like to see rise to the top? Mine is Hickenlooper.

Do Democrats want Nancy Pelosi as speaker again? Poll finds more prefer 'someone else.'

As Rep. Pelosi (D-Calif.) spends the week back on Capitol Hill trying to persuade her colleagues to give her another run at House speaker, fewer than one-quarter of self-identified Democrats — 23 percent — say their party’s lawmakers should pick her, while a larger 36 percent say they should choose “someone else” and a 41 percent plurality have no opinion, according to a new poll released Wednesday by Monmouth University.

Support for the current House minority leader becoming speaker dips further to 17 percent among the public overall, factoring in Republicans and independents.

It’s not surprising that Republicans would have an unfavorable opinion of the longtime Democratic leader. For many years they’ve vilified her as the personification of a liberal agenda. But Pelosi doesn’t garner rave ratings from Democrats either.

Just under 3 in 10 Democrats approve of Pelosi’s job performance as the party’s minority leader in the House, 29 percent, higher than the 16 percent who disapprove but dwarfed by a 55 percent majority who say they have no opinion of her efforts. Republicans are more decisive in their feelings about her, with 72 percent disapproving, 5 percent approving and 23 percent with no opinion.

More at link...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/11/14/more-democrats-prefer-someone-else-than-nancy-pelosi-become-house-speaker-new-poll-indicates/?utm_term=.00543441111c

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There could be a middle ground here with a clear date to turn over power before 2020 and an established line of succession right now.

Vox - Election takes policy off Trump's plate and provides a female politician to fight with...

All things that he is salivating for.

The Weeds podcast around 40:00

https://www.vox.com/the-weeds

We need to be realistic about the fact that with no real chance for legislation in the immediate future we are going back to what Trump likes best. Media slugfest...

Give it a listen... They also address the role Nancy Pelosi needs to play and the roles she shouldn't.

Good stuff...

Pelosi needs to pass the torch

All of her experience and connections can be better used in a supporting and advisory role for a new party leader.

This is the same mistake we made in 2016.

Look forward and not back.

Personal carry not authorized - Weapons in secure locations around campus for a select few...

Heard a story today on CNN I think...

Some school in Ohio (probably) doesn't allow concealed or open carry by teachers, principals or employees but does have a team with monthly training who have access to safes around the campus with weapons in them (don't know if handguns only or rifles)

Supposedly the identity of these individuals is kept secret but I'm sure they aren't hard to pick out. Mr. Smith the 30 something Afghanistan veteran and PT coach vs 75 year old Mrs. Rasmussen from the library who shouldn't even be driving.

Accepting the increased cost of weapons, safes, training and upkeep... Whatever we do is going to cost money... Is this a step that both sides could accept? For some, the answer is an obvious "No" because it increases guns.

Maybe it saves lives though. Maybe it doesn't

This almost seems like a happy medium between Mrs. Frizzle with a Glock 19 in a shoulder holster and no response capacity at all.

The safes would have to be very secure. Embedded in the concrete or the like... Opening a safe immediately alerts authorities.

I'd also put in a duress code to lock the safe for 48 hours and alert police. Some secure form of identification to first responders.

Pros and cons all around but it seemed more reasonable than most suggestions I've heard in the last week.

Again... I realize that to some the goal is to get rid of guns. A more realistic or at least intermediate goal could be to save lives and do something to make schools a harder target.

Thoughts?

6 Reasons Your Right-Wing Friend Isnt Coming To Your Side On Gun Control

"There are several reasons Second Amendment advocates aren’t running to your side of the argument, and it might not be the ones you think."

http://thefederalist.com/2017/10/06/6-reasons-right-wing-friend-isnt-coming-side-gun-control/

1. We Rarely Get to Come to the Conversation in Good Faith

2. The ‘Blood on Their Hands’ Attacks Are Offensive

3. The Loudest Voices Are Often the Most Ignorant

4. The Most Prominent Policy Ideas Have Nothing to Do With the Tragedy

5. We Seriously Don’t Care About Gun Laws in Other Countries

6. We Really Do Consider Owning Firearms a Right

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I always find it helpful to look at a problem from all sides. Very few folks see themselves as the enemy.

Author, source etc... all on the other side of the spectrum but in the end the question should be "Do we want to fight?" or "Do we want results? If so, what are those...?"

Working with some good faith could go a long ways...

edit: Added the 6 Reasons. More at the article...

538.com's Interactive Gun Death Statistics Chart

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/gun-deaths/

It really helps keep things in perspective. Give it a try...

edit: Gun* ... Typing one handed is hard and slow...
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