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Member since: Tue Nov 8, 2016, 02:02 PM
Number of posts: 12,129

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Prediction Market says 90% chance of Jones winning :)

Line to vote in Birmingham at 6:45 AM

For tonight's Debbie Downers - 5 Reasons why Jones could win tomorrow

1) Democrats have been outperforming all year, especially this past November. Some very red districts that haven't gone Democratic for decades have flipped blue, including in places like Georgia and Oklahoma. But (I think) no seat flipped red.
2) Jones is well within the margin of error of the polling average. That's fantastic for a democrat in Alabama.
3) Moore got only 51% of the vote in his previous election and that was all before his child molesting came out.
4) A Fox News poll last month showed Trump with only 49% approval in Alabama. Obama scored 52%.
5) Prediction Markets give Jones a 35% chance of victory. That's double the odds they gave Trump and we all know what happened there.

Former Watergate Counsel Argues Trump Can Be Indicted

The principal argument in favor of presidential immunity is that the president, as chief executive, is the officer ultimately responsible to “take care that the laws be faithfully executed.” Therefore, for the government to pursue a criminal indictment of the president would be like the president prosecuting himself.

The argument is misguided. In England, it used to be said that “the king can do no wrong.” Indeed, when the Colonies declared independence, English prosecutions were in the name of the king — Rex v. Smith, for example. But the Founders rejected the tradition of royal supremacy. In writing the Constitution, they created a limited immunity for members of Congress protecting them against — but only against — prosecution for “speeches or debates” during congressional proceedings. By contrast, the Constitution is silent on any comparable immunity for the president.

In fact, in the Nixon tapes case, the Supreme Court rejected essentially the same point that Trump supporters are making. There Nixon argued that, as chief executive overseeing enforcement of the federal laws, he was not subject to demands by the special prosecutor that the president produce evidence sought by the prosecutor. The court unanimously upheld the fundamental constitutional principle that no person is above the law, and even the president is subject to the ordinary obligations and prohibitions of federal law applicable to everyone else. The caption of the case says it all: United States v. Richard M. Nixon, President of the United States.

Posted by marylandblue | Thu Dec 7, 2017, 09:20 PM (7 replies)

Why do you think a belief without evidence

Is the same as a belief with evidence? Or is there no difference between believing in unicorns and believing in elephants?
Posted by marylandblue | Thu Dec 7, 2017, 12:46 AM (2 replies)

Picture from inside the White House this morning

Posted by marylandblue | Fri Dec 1, 2017, 10:49 AM (1 replies)

Democrats flip two NY counties - Nassau and Westchester

The Democratic candidates declared victory, but their oppponents haven't conceded yet. Nassau County is part of GOP Rep Peter King's district, who won by a large margin in 2016. But these results may make him a little nervous, especially as Nassau County would be hurt badly.by tax reform.
Posted by marylandblue | Wed Nov 8, 2017, 12:34 AM (4 replies)

Nassau County, NY Executive - one more local race to watch tonight

Nassau County voted for Clinton, but Republicans usually win the County Executive because democrats don't vote as much in off years. The outgoing executive is a republican indicted for corruption and decided not to run again. If Democrats win this, then its more evidence of democratic enthusiasm.

Posted by marylandblue | Tue Nov 7, 2017, 09:02 PM (3 replies)

Special Counsel's Office started up new website today

A nice footnote to today's events. Should be interesting reading in the days ahead.

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