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radius777

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Member since: Sun Sep 11, 2016, 09:37 PM
Number of posts: 2,577

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As a gen-x MoC, I can say that Bernie is correct.

I'm an Obama/Clinton Dem and no fan of the Bernie wing (especially on Twitter, many of them are rabid Dem haters) but Bernie himself is fully behind his friend Joe Biden in this thing and his advice is sound.

Biden is running a campaign that is in many ways similar to Hillary's: looking at good poll numbers (which could be wrong, just like last time) while ignoring the lack of enthusiasm amongst key demographic groups. This neglect could spell doom in swing states where every vote counts.

Younger voters especially PoC youth feel alienated and upset about many issues; Latino voters are not 'automatic Dem votes' and need to be messaged to properly; male voters are an issue and we can't continue to lose them as even male PoC voters seem to be drifting away. Our convention was overly touchy feely (as someone mentioned above) and this may work to get soccer moms but fails with alot of other demographics who are looking for harder answers to kitchen table issues.

The big mistake Dems are making is letting Trump beat them on the economy. A great Dem once said 'it's the economy stupid' and that is what it boils down to in moving alot of these voters into our column. Biden has to do a better job of connecting Trump's chaos and covid mismanagement to the failure of the economy for regular people. Because Trump is good at tricking people into the idea that he's some great businessman and that 'the stock market = the economy = everyone doing good'. More people than you would think buy that bullshit and Dems need to refute that narrative.

We keep hearing from Dems that 'Trump downplayed the virus' but we don't hear why he lied. He lied to prop up the stock market which he viewed as key to his reelection, pumped money (via the Fed) to these companies, at the same time forcing regular people into the pandemic to die for the 1 percent. That is the message we need to be pounding, that Trump=death and darkness and Biden is 'an ally of the light' who offers a bright future (and bulletpoint the policies which will lead people there).

For some reason Trump still polls well on the economy.

How these states hit hard by the virus play out electorally comes down to which party they blame more.

Remember, Trump is effective at gaslighting and his narrative boils down to 'Dems are exaggerating and shutting down the economy causing you to lose money'.

Biden/Dems are refuting this, but need to do so more powerfully, so that voters know that it was Trump and his mismanagement of the virus that led to the pandemic spiraling out of control thus damaging the economy for regular people - all to protect the stock market for the rich and his reelection.

Biden is leading in the betting markets.

https://electionbettingodds.com/President2020_week.html

Nate Silver has Biden as a 3:1 favorite but the markets have Biden favored at a slight coin flip (53 to 43). Markets could be factoring the '2016 shell shock factor' (that the polls could be wrong again) as well as Trump going to any lengths to win (voter suppression, kneecapping the post office, etc).

Note that the betting markets are not necessarily predictive in big races, as they were completely wrong in 2012(had Romney over Obama), in 2016 (Hilary was up to 87cents the day before election day), and this year in the primaries (thought Bloomberg would win, thought Bernie would win), and for the VP pick (Susan Rice was way ahead on the day Harris was chosen).

RW white guys with disposable income heavily dominate betting action, thus their viewpoint is reflected. Regardless of what some say, it's impossible to separate worldview from betting especially in a presidential race in such a polarized environment. The Russians and others could also be pumping money into the market to make things look better for Trump.

Even Nate Silver has said betting markets are not predictive.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1199372917777346565

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/oct-23-the-virtues-and-vices-of-election-prediction-markets/
Markets of any kind are potentially subject to herding behavior. Even if the “rogue trader” does not have superior information about the campaign, other traders might alter their behavior assuming that he did.

Or traders could be betting on speculation – buying up Mr. Romney’s stock, for example, in the hope of selling it at a higher price later, even if that price diverged from their estimate of the “fundamentals” in the race.

Coming up with a probabilistic assessment of the chances of each candidate’s winning the Electoral College is intrinsically a very challenging task. ”Gut-feel” probability estimates are not likely to be much good. It is the sort of problem, in my view, that benefits from a more rigorous approach, i.e. building a model. Yet, models are constrained by the lack of historical data and the infrequency of presidential elections – only since about 1980 has state-by-state polling of the election been common.

In these circumstances, traders may be looking for an anchor to calibrate their assessment of the probabilities. It is certainly possible that FiveThirtyEight itself serves something of this function.

The FiveThirtyEight model is sometimes perceived as being incredibly bold for having Mr. Obama as a two-to-one favorite despite what is certainly very close polling, but the few other models that seek to frame the election in probabilistic terms tend to give Mr. Obama an even clearer advantage, putting his odds at between 80 and 95 percent.

The alt-left is an illiberal left that is funded by the Russians and the RW,

and are sympathetic to Trumpism, seeing him as a populist strongman, wishing for their own such strongman from the left.

They are fringe voters who hate Dems and should never be viewed as 'on our side' or easy votes to get. It's far easier to get moderate swing voters who are at least sensible, rather than fringe voters who could be aligned with the far left one day or the far right another (horseshoe theory).

Here is the link to the article

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/electoral-college-rating-changes-florida-and-nevada-shift-right

Ultimately I think NV will be in our column because (unlike FL) it is a Dem controlled state with full mail in voting that historically has a good GOTV operation. The Latinos there are also not ultra conservative like the Cubans but instead tend to be working class labor union types. Bernie won big in the primaries and maybe he can help with turning these voters out.

I understand the 'Latinos favor incumbency thing' but still wonder how an anti-Latino bigot (who puts kids in cages) like Trump could attract any of their votes. Also wonder why Biden seems to be having a much bigger issue with them than Hillary did. Whatever the reason he needs to reach out and message to them. Kamala could be deployed as she is a WoC with an immigrant background and has long worked with Latinos in CA, which are similar ideologically to those in NV and AZ.

CNN: Some 2016 Trump voters regret their vote.



Panel of 6 women voters in swing states, all of whom voted for Trump in 2016, 3 of which are now going to vote for Biden.

The idea that Trump can't lose votes is a myth - he can with more moderate voters who actually use their brains.

Alot of them are out of shape cowards w/personality issues,

who really should not be doing that job, but the unions protect them.

The reality is that cops also abuse alot of whites, yet many whites view the police as defenders of white America, so don't join in BLM and others who critique the police.

Problem is many whites WANT a fascist for 'their' side,

always have. America has never been a democracy for everyone and white America has worked overtime for hundreds of years to make sure of that. There are virtuous whites who have always stood against this, but they are not enough to outnumber the evil whites.

I think Biden must attack Trump on the economy, which polls show is somehow his strength. Biden needs to drive home to voters that the stock market (which is artifically inflated by the Fed shoveling cheap money) and the economy are not the same thing. Regular people are being shit on while the big corps are bailed out. This is the message which will guarantee us the Midwest ie help us with working class whites and latinos which Biden needs to improve with, as well as progressives.

-Covid mishandling. he downplayed it to prop up the market while the bodybags piled up.
-Chaos. violence, crime and racial unrest are a result of Trump's intentional divisiveness as he thinks it helps him politically.
-Corporations. big corps are riding high with 'free money' while regular folks (small biz and workers) get shit on and sent into the pandemic to die for the 1 percent.
-healthCare - very important for most people including many who have lost their coverage due to losing their job.

Covid, chaos, corps and healthcare - those are the messages to hit on. Trump has no comeback for this, game over as long as we turn out the vote.

Nailed it. This is what animates the RW,

even pre-Trump, it's just that he says the quiet parts out loud.

The majority of whites will throw away democracy itself (and will side with dictators like Putin) to maintain white supremacy. There are also some non-whites who will choose to be 'house slaves' and side with the RW. None of these people are abandoning Trump for any reason.

However, a story like this could have an impact with moderate Repubs and independents who are on the fence. Such voters tend to view issues of national security and the military to be very important, and Biden actually is more conservative (and more establishment) than Trump on these issues.

Market being artifically pumped while regular people beg for help.

That's the real scandal here, the big corps getting bailed out again while regular folk get shit on.

Unfortunately many regular people don't get this, that the stock market and the economy is not the same thing.

Dems are missing this as an issue, and how to frame it - we can't let Trump (who inherited Obama's economy) beat us on the economy.

The past two Dem presidents ushered in great economies while the last two Repub presidents were terrible.
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