Born to Run the Numbers on the fact that everyone is speculating about when the Mueller report will drop, but few appear to be thinking about how its arrival will impact an already deeply polarized society:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/03/btrtn-most-uncivil-war-what-will-happen.html

Excerpts:"If you thought that the pace of breaking news was already at a fever pitch – Dems in droves announcing their candidacy for the presidency in 2020, government shut-downs, emergency declarations of non-emergencies, more mass murders in tiny, peaceful countries -- then strap in and pull down the oxygen mask. Our country is about to fly into a category five shit storm and let’s just pray that we are not on a 737 Max...
"Does Mueller open Door #1 or Door #2? Treason Trump or Free Trump? In other words, which half of America is going to explode in anger? Because no matter what Mueller decides, somewhere between 30% to 50% of the United States is likely to be rip-roaring pissed off. Light the match, Mr. Mueller. Then pick which bone-dry pile of kindling you are going to toss it on...
"Protesters and counter-protestors are tinder looking for a match. Perhaps we should expect angry clashes. But in the fire this time, the confrontations are instantly viral on a zillion iPhones, sparks on gasoline all across the country. What could rapidly ensue: a most uncivil war with no geographic boundaries, only sectarian regions with prevailing influences. We become our own private Iraq, with the potential for violence to explode in communities around the nation. It is not a war of Red States and Blue States. It is Red people and Blue people sharing restaurants, bars, and stadiums, overhearing conversations, feeling cheated, and looking for trouble...
"No, it does not appear that the current President is making– or apparently planning – calming words to the nation about allowing the legal process to work through to completion.Quite the opposite: he appears to be getting his troops ready to rumble..."

Born to Run the Numbers on the fact that everyone is speculating about when the Mueller report will drop, but few appear to be thinking about how its arrival will impact an already deeply polarized society:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/03/btrtn-most-uncivil-war-what-will-happen.html

Excerpts:"If you thought that the pace of breaking news was already at a fever pitch – Dems in droves announcing their candidacy for the presidency in 2020, government shut-downs, emergency declarations of non-emergencies, more mass murders in tiny, peaceful countries -- then strap in and pull down the oxygen mask. Our country is about to fly into a category five shit storm and let’s just pray that we are not on a 737 Max...
"Does Mueller open Door #1 or Door #2? Treason Trump or Free Trump? In other words, which half of America is going to explode in anger? Because no matter what Mueller decides, somewhere between 30% to 50% of the United States is likely to be rip-roaring pissed off. Light the match, Mr. Mueller. Then pick which bone-dry pile of kindling you are going to toss it on...
"Protesters and counter-protestors are tinder looking for a match. Perhaps we should expect angry clashes. But in the fire this time, the confrontations are instantly viral on a zillion iPhones, sparks on gasoline all across the country. What could rapidly ensue: a most uncivil war with no geographic boundaries, only sectarian regions with prevailing influences. We become our own private Iraq, with the potential for violence to explode in communities around the nation. It is not a war of Red States and Blue States. It is Red people and Blue people sharing restaurants, bars, and stadiums, overhearing conversations, feeling cheated, and looking for trouble...
"No, it does not appear that the current President is making– or apparently planning – calming words to the nation about allowing the legal process to work through to completion.Quite the opposite: he appears to be getting his troops ready to rumble..."

Born To Run The Numbers looks back and reflects on what the history of Democratic Presidential nominees suggests about the prospects for the 2020 contenders:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/03/btrtn-job-app-for-potus-no-experience.html

Excerpts: "Somehow, however, the voting population of the United States has a different hiring philosophy. It’s as if they would conduct a job interview for a computer programmer by asking about the applicant’s proficiency as a dog groomer or endocrinologist. Or, worse still, they would say, 'So, you want to work for us a computer programmer? Just so you know: the more experience you have had as a computer programmer, the less attractive a candidate you are. We count relevant experience against you.' So it would appear to be. Repeatedly, Americans have chosen the candidate for President who has demonstrably less experience...
"Here’s another interesting fact... Democrats win when they nominate a youthful, relatively inexperienced charismatic. When they nominate a graying policy wonk, they lose. Think about that. John F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama were all highly charismatic but nonetheless inexperienced candidates, and each would win the presidency while still in the forties. Democrats win when they embody generational change...
"In contrast, think about the imagery conjured by these names: Walter Mondale, Michael Dukakis, Al Gore, John Kerry, and Hillary Clinton. Each of these candidates could blow you away with their command of policy detail, global politics, and the practical workings of government. Every single one of them was over fifty --most well over fifty -- when nominated for president. And yeah, maybe every single one of them would have been a fine President. But here’s the significant thing they have in common: the Democratic losers over the past forty years were all wooden technocrats who suffered from chronic charisma deficit disorder."

Born To Run The Numbers thinks that Bernie has the right ideas, but is marketing them with a terrible branding idea.

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/03/btrtn-hey-democrats-stop-with.html

Excerpts:
“Positioning a brand” means to give it a unique, powerful, and credible meaning that enables consumers to know exactly what they are getting, and getting exactly what they want. Think, if you will, of brands like BMW, which has promised its customers “the ultimate driving machine” for over 40 years...
"Positioning a candidate as a 'Democratic Socialist' is a really bad branding idea. Don’t get me wrong: I think Bernie Sanders has actually put his finger on the most critical issues facing our country. But he is giving his proposed solutions a terrible brand identity.
"A majority of Americans cannot tell you the difference between 'socialism' and 'communism,' and that if you actually tried to explain it, their eyes would glaze over and they would swivel back to re-runs of season four of 'Real Housewives of Atlanta...'
"The second reason for disposing of this branding device is actually more significant: 'Democratic Socialism' is a misleading description of the economic policies that we need to put in place to correct our society and our economy...
"And yet – and this is the scary part -- there is yet a third reason why 'Democratic Socialism' would be a branding disaster for Democrats. If the Democrats push “Democratic Socialism,” they will be reminding Donald Trump to talk more about his stewardship of the economy. They will be giving Trump a giant crowbar he can use to bang you over the heads of every Democratic candidate. They will be framing the 2020 debate on terms that are most favorable to Trump..."

Born To Run the Numbers with its February "Month in Review," a month in which Trump was pummeled on three fronts:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/03/btrtn-february-ends-with-bang-and.html

Excerpts: "If you can find a narrative for the month, it was the interweaving of three themes: Trump continuing to torture himself on immigration with his wildly unpopular 'national emergency' declaration; Trump pivoting to foreign affairs (to change the subject) and coming up empty; and more shocking revelations from various Russia-and-more investigations just ahead of the release of the Mueller report. The month ended in utterly epic fashion with Michael Cohen testifying against Trump for three days on Capitol Hill, while Trump fumed helplessly from Vietnam, in the midst of doomed de-nuclearization negotiations...

"And so it goes. It’s become axiomic that Trump likely has more to fear from the Southern District of New York than Mueller, yet this is quite a statement because Mueller seems to have the goods, at the very least, on the Stormy Daniels campaign-lawbreaking scheme. And if Trump believed that the long-awaited release of the Mueller report would end his troubles, he surely understands that is far from the truth, as the SDNY grinds on and the Democrats are just getting started...

"The bang of Michael Cohen’s public testimony, combined with the whimper of the North Korea talks, surely left the Trump Administration facing one of its lowest moments, with plenty of investigations ahead and no clear catalyst to improve Trump’s fortunes (such as a North Korea or China deal) readily apparent."

Born To Run the Numbers with its February "Month in Review," a month in which Trump was pummeled on three fronts:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/03/btrtn-february-ends-with-bang-and.html

Excerpts: "If you can find a narrative for the month, it was the interweaving of three themes: Trump continuing to torture himself on immigration with his wildly unpopular 'national emergency' declaration; Trump pivoting to foreign affairs (to change the subject) and coming up empty; and more shocking revelations from various Russia-and-more investigations just ahead of the release of the Mueller report. The month ended in utterly epic fashion with Michael Cohen testifying against Trump for three days on Capitol Hill, while Trump fumed helplessly from Vietnam, in the midst of doomed de-nuclearization negotiations...

"And so it goes. It’s become axiomic that Trump likely has more to fear from the Southern District of New York than Mueller, yet this is quite a statement because Mueller seems to have the goods, at the very least, on the Stormy Daniels campaign-lawbreaking scheme. And if Trump believed that the long-awaited release of the Mueller report would end his troubles, he surely understands that is far from the truth, as the SDNY grinds on and the Democrats are just getting started...

"The bang of Michael Cohen’s public testimony, combined with the whimper of the North Korea talks, surely left the Trump Administration facing one of its lowest moments, with plenty of investigations ahead and no clear catalyst to improve Trump’s fortunes (such as a North Korea or China deal) readily apparent."

Born to Run the Numbers is hearing mixed messages about the Mueller investigation. There are reports that it will be released imminently, but only last week The New York Times reported on an unredacted quote from Andrew Weissmann about "getting to the heart of the Special Counsel's investigation." What gives? Here's a theory:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/02/btrtn-what-exactly-is-heart-of-special.html

Excerpts: "Does The Times really think Mueller’s investigation has led to just 'a few hints' of collusion? For heaven’s sake, your own investigative reporters have exposed more than 'a few hints' on page one of your own paper. From where we sit, there appears to be more 'evidence of possible collusion' already sitting in plain sight than there are commercials for Trivago, golfers named Jason, Justin, Jordon, or Dustin, or even Democratic candidates for President. Geez, there’s probably a website called The Daily Collusion...
"Why wasn’t Weissmann’s comment redacted? It’s possible somebody goofed. But we doubt it. No, we suspect that Mueller wanted to make sure that everyone knows that conspiracy and collusion are still very much on the table. Particularly if he suspected that his soon-to-be-approved new boss has ideas of pressuring Mueller to bring his investigation to a rapid and premature conclusion. Perhaps the new Attorney General thinks that his best chance of saving Trump’s ass is to force the report into the public before Mr. Weissmann has actually gotten all the way to the 'heart.' Sure, we’ve been saying for a year that we’d love to see that report as soon as is humanly possible...for sake of the Constitution, the balance of power, the rule of law, and the United States of America. But now? Now we want to feel certain that Mr. Mueller and Mr. Weissman have all the time they need. Don’t be rushed. Do the job you’ve been asked to do, in exactly the way you think it should be done. Don’t let the new Attorney General force the issue.Take your time. Mr. Weissmann, go for it. Get to the heart of the matter."

Born to Run the Numbers is hearing mixed messages about the Mueller investigation. There are reports that it will be released imminently, but only last week The New York Times reported on an unredacted quote from Andrew Weissmann about "getting to the heart of the Special Counsel's investigation." What gives? Here's a theory:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/02/btrtn-what-exactly-is-heart-of-special.html

Excerpts: "Does The Times really think Mueller’s investigation has led to just 'a few hints' of collusion? For heaven’s sake, your own investigative reporters have exposed more than 'a few hints' on page one of your own paper. From where we sit, there appears to be more 'evidence of possible collusion' already sitting in plain sight than there are commercials for Trivago, golfers named Jason, Justin, Jordon, or Dustin, or even Democratic candidates for President. Geez, there’s probably a website called The Daily Collusion...
"Why wasn’t Weissmann’s comment redacted? It’s possible somebody goofed. But we doubt it. No, we suspect that Mueller wanted to make sure that everyone knows that conspiracy and collusion are still very much on the table. Particularly if he suspected that his soon-to-be-approved new boss has ideas of pressuring Mueller to bring his investigation to a rapid and premature conclusion. Perhaps the new Attorney General thinks that his best chance of saving Trump’s ass is to force the report into the public before Mr. Weissmann has actually gotten all the way to the 'heart.' Sure, we’ve been saying for a year that we’d love to see that report as soon as is humanly possible...for sake of the Constitution, the balance of power, the rule of law, and the United States of America. But now? Now we want to feel certain that Mr. Mueller and Mr. Weissman have all the time they need. Don’t be rushed. Do the job you’ve been asked to do, in exactly the way you think it should be done. Don’t let the new Attorney General force the issue.Take your time. Mr. Weissmann, go for it. Get to the heart of the matter."

Born to Run the Numbers with a novel theory on how the voting population will go about its duty of winnowing the huge field of Democratic candidates:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/02/btrtnthe-polar-opposite-vortex-theory.html

Excerpts: "But there is perhaps an even more intriguing element about the eight year cyclical change that may be helpful in assessing the huge field of contestants for the Democratic nomination. A case can be made that what people generally look for in the personality of their new president is the exact opposite of the dominant personality trait of the incumbent, a trait which may have once been the exact nature of their appeal, but one that has gone stale and become downright alienating with time. Ike was elected because he represented stability, wisdom, restraint, and caution to a nation weary of war. But over time, those traits transitioned from ripe to spoiled, and Ike began to look old, boring, cautious, and bland. Who did Americans elect in 1960? The dynamic, energetic, youthful, and immensely charismatic John F. Kennedy..." (a full catalog of examples follows).
"We’ll call this theory the 'Polar Opposite Vortex.'... which of the dozens of Democratic candidates is truly the polar opposite of Donald Trump? Donald Trump has so many serious faults that the hardest task is figuring out which of Trump’s weaknesses and vulnerabilities is viewed by voters to be the most egregious. Trump is a veritable Sybil of dysfunction...
"Both Warren and Klobuchar seem to realize that the first step toward winning the nomination is simply to be one of the few candidates who is still standing after Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and California. Owning a distinctive and important 'lane' is the way to accomplish that. With two dozen candidates, voters will eagerly grab onto simple, powerful messages and visual imagery in order to sort out the candidates and cull the field to a manageable number..."

Born to Run the Numbers with a novel theory on how the voting population will go about its duty of winnowing the huge field of Democratic candidates:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/02/btrtnthe-polar-opposite-vortex-theory.html

Excerpts: "But there is perhaps an even more intriguing element about the eight year cyclical change that may be helpful in assessing the huge field of contestants for the Democratic nomination. A case can be made that what people generally look for in the personality of their new president is the exact opposite of the dominant personality trait of the incumbent, a trait which may have once been the exact nature of their appeal, but one that has gone stale and become downright alienating with time. Ike was elected because he represented stability, wisdom, restraint, and caution to a nation weary of war. But over time, those traits transitioned from ripe to spoiled, and Ike began to look old, boring, cautious, and bland. Who did Americans elect in 1960? The dynamic, energetic, youthful, and immensely charismatic John F. Kennedy..." (a full catalog of examples follows).
"We’ll call this theory the 'Polar Opposite Vortex.'... which of the dozens of Democratic candidates is truly the polar opposite of Donald Trump? Donald Trump has so many serious faults that the hardest task is figuring out which of Trump’s weaknesses and vulnerabilities is viewed by voters to be the most egregious. Trump is a veritable Sybil of dysfunction...
"Both Warren and Klobuchar seem to realize that the first step toward winning the nomination is simply to be one of the few candidates who is still standing after Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and California. Owning a distinctive and important 'lane' is the way to accomplish that. With two dozen candidates, voters will eagerly grab onto simple, powerful messages and visual imagery in order to sort out the candidates and cull the field to a manageable number..."