Born to Run the Numbers on the Helsinki fall-out, and the out-sized significance of Dan Coats' condemning tweet:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/07/btrtn-its-different-when-coats-turns-on.html

Excerpts: "There’s a clear pattern now. There are people that Trump is afraid to go to war with. People who Trump knows are not the least bit afraid of him. Quite the opposite: these are people who terrify Trump. These are the people who never get degrading nicknames. People who Trump can’t buy, can’t smear, can’t kill, and can’t beat. It’s a very short list, with the names Mueller and Putin on top. And now you can add Coates to the list. The difference is that Dan Coats is one of Trump’s own. He is of the base, from the base, and by the base. That’s what’s new...

"Deep down, Dan Coats is the kind of narrow-minded, omni-phobic slanderer of liberals that Trump’s base counts as one of their own. Dan Coats was not one of the sixteen midgets who said vicious things about Donald Trump during the 2016 campaign, only to morph into toadies when vanquished. Coats did not come from Exxon Mobil and label Trump a moron. He did not get himself on the cover of Time Magazine in an attempt to usurp credit for victory from Trump. He is not Corker, Flake, McCain, or anybody named Bush. Dan Coats has held an extremely senior position in the White House from Day One without a whiff of confrontation or controversy. Dan Coats has weapons-grade conservative bona fides and no axe to grind. But that, indeed, is the point. That’s the good news... The base is now hearing it from one of their own."

Born to Run the Numbers on the Helsinki fall-out, and the out-sized significance of Dan Coats' condemning tweet:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/07/btrtn-its-different-when-coats-turns-on.html

Excerpts: "There’s a clear pattern now. There are people that Trump is afraid to go to war with. People who Trump knows are not the least bit afraid of him. Quite the opposite: these are people who terrify Trump. These are the people who never get degrading nicknames. People who Trump can’t buy, can’t smear, can’t kill, and can’t beat. It’s a very short list, with the names Mueller and Putin on top. And now you can add Coates to the list. The difference is that Dan Coats is one of Trump’s own. He is of the base, from the base, and by the base. That’s what’s new...

"Deep down, Dan Coats is the kind of narrow-minded, omni-phobic slanderer of liberals that Trump’s base counts as one of their own. Dan Coats was not one of the sixteen midgets who said vicious things about Donald Trump during the 2016 campaign, only to morph into toadies when vanquished. Coats did not come from Exxon Mobil and label Trump a moron. He did not get himself on the cover of Time Magazine in an attempt to usurp credit for victory from Trump. He is not Corker, Flake, McCain, or anybody named Bush. Dan Coats has held an extremely senior position in the White House from Day One without a whiff of confrontation or controversy. Dan Coats has weapons-grade conservative bona fides and no axe to grind. But that, indeed, is the point. That’s the good news... The base is now hearing it from one of their own."

Born to Run the Numbers speculates on the substance of Trump's one-on-one with Putin in Helsinki:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/07/btrtn-what-does-putin-have-on-trump-duh.html

Excerpts: "What do you suppose they are going to talk about on Monday? One guess is that they Vladimir Putin will want to talk about is how to make sure Donald Trump gets re-elected. Why rent the President of the United States for four years when you can leverage that into an option to buy?

"Putin’s a shrewd guy. If he wants to make sure that Trump gets re-elected, the first sign would be to see if he throws Trump a bone in Helsinki. Maybe Putin suggests that they announce some grand agreement to do something about the endless mess in Syria. Maybe Putin offers to join Trump in shutting down Kim Jong-un. It could be a Munich-evoking assurance that Putin will initiate no other Crimea-like annexations in former U.S.S.R. states like Estonia. Perhaps it’s a vague communique promising a dialog on reducing nuclear arsenals. All Putin has to do is make sure that Donald Trump comes out of Helsinki with a win that he can crow about back home and which serves to validate Trump’s emphasis on establishing a positive working relationship with Putin. Donald Trump has a nauseating habit of walking away from every shit storm he creates with a resounding declaration of victory. In the case of this meeting, Putin would seem to have self-interest in helping Trump do so."

Born to Run the Numbers speculates on the substance of Trump's one-on-one with Putin in Helsinki:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/07/btrtn-what-does-putin-have-on-trump-duh.html

Excerpts: "What do you suppose they are going to talk about on Monday? One guess is that they Vladimir Putin will want to talk about is how to make sure Donald Trump gets re-elected. Why rent the President of the United States for four years when you can leverage that into an option to buy?

"Putin’s a shrewd guy. If he wants to make sure that Trump gets re-elected, the first sign would be to see if he throws Trump a bone in Helsinki. Maybe Putin suggests that they announce some grand agreement to do something about the endless mess in Syria. Maybe Putin offers to join Trump in shutting down Kim Jong-un. It could be a Munich-evoking assurance that Putin will initiate no other Crimea-like annexations in former U.S.S.R. states like Estonia. Perhaps it’s a vague communique promising a dialog on reducing nuclear arsenals. All Putin has to do is make sure that Donald Trump comes out of Helsinki with a win that he can crow about back home and which serves to validate Trump’s emphasis on establishing a positive working relationship with Putin. Donald Trump has a nauseating habit of walking away from every shit storm he creates with a resounding declaration of victory. In the case of this meeting, Putin would seem to have self-interest in helping Trump do so."

Born to Run the Numbers on why civility is the last thing we need as we head into one of the most partisan minefields in our history:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/07/btrtn-dispatch-from-civility-wars-screw.html

Excerpts: "If Sarah Huckabee Sanders does not want to be asked to leave a restaurant, she could do one of two things. She could pre-screen the restaurant owner to make sure that he or she is as stupid, bigoted, and deceitful as she is. Or she could inaugurate a spanking new policy in which she realizes that her job is to tell the American people the truth about the White House. Simple as that, Sarah. Enjoy the steak tartare in peace...

"Wake up, Democrats. The Republicans own the executive branch, the House, the Senate, and now they are going to own the Judiciary. What do you have? You have the majority of American people. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote. If you want to fight Trump’s nomination, you are going to have to do it in the Red Hens all across the U.S. You are going to have to turn every meek and retiring “civilized” progressive into Kristin Mink – the kind of real-life action hero who walks up to Scott Pruitt in a restaurant and tells him that he does not deserve to be in his job. You know the kind of passive people I am talking about… the well-behaved, well-mannered nice people who have made rules that we just don’t talk about politics at cocktail parties. These people need to understand that the U.S. is one big Red Hen where enough angry voices in unison get heard. They have to leave the pleasant cul-du-sac, postpone the tennis game, and get their neighbors into the S.U.V. and drive down to that big Red Hen called Washington, D.C."

Born to Run the Numbers on why civility is the last thing we need as we head into one of the most partisan minefields in our history:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2018/07/btrtn-dispatch-from-civility-wars-screw.html

Excerpts: "If Sarah Huckabee Sanders does not want to be asked to leave a restaurant, she could do one of two things. She could pre-screen the restaurant owner to make sure that he or she is as stupid, bigoted, and deceitful as she is. Or she could inaugurate a spanking new policy in which she realizes that her job is to tell the American people the truth about the White House. Simple as that, Sarah. Enjoy the steak tartare in peace...

"Wake up, Democrats. The Republicans own the executive branch, the House, the Senate, and now they are going to own the Judiciary. What do you have? You have the majority of American people. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote. If you want to fight Trump’s nomination, you are going to have to do it in the Red Hens all across the U.S. You are going to have to turn every meek and retiring “civilized” progressive into Kristin Mink – the kind of real-life action hero who walks up to Scott Pruitt in a restaurant and tells him that he does not deserve to be in his job. You know the kind of passive people I am talking about… the well-behaved, well-mannered nice people who have made rules that we just don’t talk about politics at cocktail parties. These people need to understand that the U.S. is one big Red Hen where enough angry voices in unison get heard. They have to leave the pleasant cul-du-sac, postpone the tennis game, and get their neighbors into the S.U.V. and drive down to that big Red Hen called Washington, D.C."