reggieandlee
reggieandlee's JournalBTRTN June 2019 in Review: Trump Should Beware the I's of June
Born To Run The Numbers provides their review of the month of June, emphasizing the peril Trump faces from the three "i"s -- immigration, Iran, and impeachment.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/07/btrtn-june-2019-month-in-review-trump.html
Excerpts: "Three major news items stood out – Iran, immigration and impeachment -- each personified by a singular image: the downing of a U.S. drone by Iran; the heartrending and harrowing image of a man and his 2-year old daughter dead on the banks of the Rio Grande; the stunning announcement that Robert Mueller will testify public before Congress on July 17, giving voice to his report, and breathing oxygen into the calls for impeachment. Iran, immigration, impeachment...Trump should beware the I’s of June...
"Perhaps most threatening for Trump are rumblings in the economy, his re-election ace in the hole. Trump... will/should be running on the strength of the U.S. economy. But with only 75,000 jobs created in May, and the inversion of the bond yield curve, Trump is in his own race against the clock to get re-elected before the bottom drops out on the longest expansion in decades. An untimely economic slowdown was disastrous for George H.W. Bush, and it would be even more so for Trump...
"For all the chaos of the Trump Administration, the one constant has been his approval rating. He started his presidency in the high 40% range, but shortly thereafter his approval rating had dropped to the mid-40’s. He hit a monthly low of 38% in August 2017 and ended that year at 39%. From there, each and every month has been in the 40-45% range; the last seven months have been stuck in the even narrower range of 41-43%. Such are our times. Perhaps this single statistic, the approval rating, is most indicative of our divided nation, because nothing Trump does changes anyone’s mind at all. This variance of a point or two month to month is in margin of error territory. And so, we report that Trump’s approval rating for the month of June, 2019, was unchanged at 43%."
BTRTN: Biden Go Seek... Harris Goes on the Offensive and Wins Big
Born to Run the Numbers provides its analysis of the two nights of Democratic debates:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/06/btrtn-biden-go-seekharris-goes-on.html
Excerpts: "For two hours on Wednesday and another hour on Thursday, the Democratic debates were spirited and energetic, but all seeming to little effect. It appeared that there would be only modest shifts in the hierarchy of the candidates’ standing, as most candidates turned in solid performances and no one committed a train-wreck caliber gaffe. Then... Kamala Harris turned and faced Joe Biden, and the tectonic plates underneath the race shuddered with the force of a 7.0 Richter California quake...
"It took all of five minutes for Harris to upend the Presidential election campaign of 2020. She had not simply taken Biden down. She had presented herself as a powerful leader willing to take on the toughest issues. For a party that is desperately searching for the leader who has the guts, gravitas, the personal power, and the savvy to take down Donald Trump, Harris’ tour de force was mesmerizing. The inevitability of Biden’s nomination seemed to drain in real time...
"Look for gains, too, for Pete Buttigieg, and even for tier three candidate Eric Swalwell. From Wednesday night, Elizabeth Warren was outstanding, and Julian Castro and Bill de Blasio both elevated their standing...
"In fact, Kamala Harris was right about a lot of stuff last night. The Democratic Party is desperate to find someone who is sure to beat Donald Trump. That is the criteria, end of story. Joe Biden's strong support to date has been because most people believe that he is the most likely to beat Trump. That belief system was shaken last night. Harris intuited that the best way to prove that she is the one who can take it to Trump would be to take it to the current front runner...Harris knew that the only way to position herself as the leader was to take on the leader. Round one to the Senator from California."
Miami Vise: Who's Gonna Get Squeezed in the Dem Debates?
Born To Run The Numbers makes predictions about the Democratic debates: who will rise, who will fall, who will beat expectations, and who will flat-line in the aftermath...
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/06/miami-vise-whos-gonna-get-squeezed-in.html
Excerpts: "This will be the essential drama of the debates, and it is Biden’s Miami Vise. Will Biden attempt to play it safe and project the aspect of his personality that is wise, measured, cautious, above the fray, and presidential – and risk appearing to be low-T, saggy old Grandpa Faux Pas? Or will he bound onto the stage, bursting with sass and wreaking ‘tood, all in a calculated effort to show that he can still mix it up with the kids and has the moxy to take it to the Insulter-in-Chief next fall? ...Biden’s performance will be further magnified by the fact that many of the candidates will be playing Biden Go Seek.
"Talk about a Miami Vise: to Bernie’s left is a younger, female, high-energy ascending rock star who has stolen his thunder as the party’s leftist policy wonk, and to Bernie’s right is another craggy over-75-year-old white guy who is crushing him in the early polls...
"Many Americans will be seeing Buttigieg for the first time on Thursday night, and you can fully expect that a large percentage will be as charmed by him as those who have followed him closely on cable news. The bet here is that while Biden’s performance is considered solid, Buttigieg is the next morning’s lead story.
"The conventional wisdom is that there is 'no downside to running for President.' That theory holds that a run is great for name recognition, visibility, and can set you up for a cabinet post or even the VP nod. However, it is hard to see how that theory is holding up for any of Kirsten Gillibrand, Beto O’Rourke, Cory Booker, or Amy Klobuchar..."
BTRTN 2020 Vision: The Warm Up Act is Over, It's Debate Time
Born To Run The Numbers provides their mid-monthly summary of the current state of the Democratic race for the White House.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/06/btrtn-2020-vision-warm-up-act-is-over.html
Excerpts:"The Democratic field is set and the first debates, the first real event of the campaign, are just around the corner. Joe Biden is the front runner but the race is tightening, with five “Tier 1” candidates... and Biden is already displaying his vulnerabilities.
"Biden took the first of many punches he will have to endure, with the initial blow more or less self-inflicted. And this qualifies as the rarely performed 'triple flip flop,' the first known record of this particular political gymnastic feat...
"Of course the polls can change in the blink of a two-minute spiel in the upcoming debates, but as of now, both in Iowa and nationally, there are only five candidates with material support: Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren...
"Warren is coming on strong...performing extremely well on the campaign trail, and with her authentic Oklahoma lower middle class back story and her dazzling array (and command) of policy positions, she is rising in the polls both in Iowa and nationally. She is now challenging Sanders for the lefty wing of the party, and he is declining in Iowa, starting to feel a bit like yesterday’s news...
"Mayor Pete is the darling of 2020 thus far, at 37 less than half the age of Biden and Sanders...Like Warren, he speaks in whole paragraphs, and seems to make perfect sense whenever he opens his mouth, with a sly wit that echoes JFK and Obama. Everyone likes him, and he is getting even better on the trail day by day. He is the only “no name” candidate to have jumped into the first tier...
"Kamala Harris has not hit her stride as a candidate yet, but, to borrow a sports phrase, she has a 'high ceiling' – she is smart, accomplished, well-spoken and telegenic, with a great backstory, and Democrats seem to want her to succeed. If she can find her groove on the campaign trail – or in the debates – she could move up considerably."
BTRTN: Catch 1776... How Will We Repair our Democracy When It's So Hard to Fix the Constitution?
Born To Run The Numbers on the assault that Trump, Barr, and McConnell are waging on our Constitution, our democracy, and the customs and traditions that enable our government to function... and what we can do about it.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/06/btrtn-catch-1776-how-will-we-repair-our.html
Excerpts: "...That, however, was before the Republicans had finished assembling the troika of imperialists determined to re-introduce monarchy to America in the original George III form, a version devoid of the endearing understatement and benign inefficacy we associate with Prince Charles and Masterpiece Theater. No, in this remake, Trump, McConnell, and Barr are taking a quiet sledgehammer to our system of government, and still have another eighteen months to finish their, uh, crowning achievement...The Presidency is almost dead, long live the King..."
"And that is where we come to our true constitutional crisis....As wise as the Founding Fathers were, they did not anticipate that an utterly corrupt individual would attain the Presidency and then be insulated from impeachment by an equally corrupt political party with a greater interest in maintaining power than in preserving a government of, by, and for the people... "
"We, the people, now have a government led by a man who the majority of citizens did not vote for. We have a Supreme Court that was tipped by an unprincipled hypocrite in favor of a judicial philosophy that does not represent the rightful will of the people. We have a legislative branch that is so hopelessly polarized and gridlocked that it cannot even pass background checks for gun purchases that are favored by over 90% of the citizens. We have a Department of Justice that covers up the illegal acts of a President, even as it accedes to that President’s wish that investigative probes be launched on his political opponents..."
"What was once a noble and shining triumph of government of, by, and for the people is at risk of becoming an imperial state of Barr, by McConnell, and for Trump..."
BTRTN: Catch 1776... How Will We Repair our Democracy When It's So Hard to Fix the Constitution?
Born To Run The Numbers on the assault that Trump, Barr, and McConnell are waging on our Constitution, our democracy, and the customs and traditions that enable our government to function... and what we can do about it.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/06/btrtn-catch-1776-how-will-we-repair-our.html
Excerpts: "...That, however, was before the Republicans had finished assembling the troika of imperialists determined to re-introduce monarchy to America in the original George III form, a version devoid of the endearing understatement and benign inefficacy we associate with Prince Charles and Masterpiece Theater. No, in this remake, Trump, McConnell, and Barr are taking a quiet sledgehammer to our system of government, and still have another eighteen months to finish their, uh, crowning achievement...The Presidency is almost dead, long live the King..."
"And that is where we come to our true constitutional crisis....As wise as the Founding Fathers were, they did not anticipate that an utterly corrupt individual would attain the Presidency and then be insulated from impeachment by an equally corrupt political party with a greater interest in maintaining power than in preserving a government of, by, and for the people... "
"We, the people, now have a government led by a man who the majority of citizens did not vote for. We have a Supreme Court that was tipped by an unprincipled hypocrite in favor of a judicial philosophy that does not represent the rightful will of the people. We have a legislative branch that is so hopelessly polarized and gridlocked that it cannot even pass background checks for gun purchases that are favored by over 90% of the citizens. We have a Department of Justice that covers up the illegal acts of a President, even as it accedes to that President’s wish that investigative probes be launched on his political opponents..."
"What was once a noble and shining triumph of government of, by, and for the people is at risk of becoming an imperial state of Barr, by McConnell, and for Trump..."
BTRTN May 2019 Month in Review: Stuck Inside of No Deal with Those Endless Blues Again
Born to Run the Numbers provides its review of May, a month in which government seemed to finally grind to a halt or actively regress. So much for the "art of the deal..."
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/06/btrtn-may-2019-month-in-review-stuck.html
Excerpts:
"Is there absolutely anything associated with Trump’s Washington that is not completely stuck, or in reverse? When you consider the two major themes of the month – life in post-Mueller Washington and Trump’s foreign policy initiatives – there is no discernible sign of constructive movement, anywhere...
"The likelihood of significant legislation (e.g., infrastructure, drug prices) moving through Congress is, at this point, laughable. And the global scene is even more disturbing, with backsliding in every area of Trump focus: China, North Korea, Iran and Israel. Everything Trump touches overseas is destabilizing, and the potential consequences of an angry Trump are dire.
"But Mueller not only said nothing new, he indicated that was his last word on the subject – no questions, no congressional testimony, nothing. Another dead end in Washington, and with so much at stake, such a dense report to absorb, so much to clarify, with so little understanding, it is remarkable that Robert Mueller believes that his report is sufficient. Another “no deal” in a dead end town...
"What is going right for Trump? Just one thing: the economy. The latest GDP figures confirmed 3.1% growth in the first quarter, and the economy added 263,000 jobs. Why Trump does not just shut up about everything else and talk up the economy is beyond me..."
BTRTN May 2019 Month in Review: Stuck Inside of No Deal with Those Endless Blues Again
Born to Run the Numbers provides its review of May, a month in which government seemed to finally grind to a halt or actively regress. So much for the "art of the deal..."
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/06/btrtn-may-2019-month-in-review-stuck.html
Excerpts:
"Is there absolutely anything associated with Trump’s Washington that is not completely stuck, or in reverse? When you consider the two major themes of the month – life in post-Mueller Washington and Trump’s foreign policy initiatives – there is no discernible sign of constructive movement, anywhere...
"The likelihood of significant legislation (e.g., infrastructure, drug prices) moving through Congress is, at this point, laughable. And the global scene is even more disturbing, with backsliding in every area of Trump focus: China, North Korea, Iran and Israel. Everything Trump touches overseas is destabilizing, and the potential consequences of an angry Trump are dire.
"But Mueller not only said nothing new, he indicated that was his last word on the subject – no questions, no congressional testimony, nothing. Another dead end in Washington, and with so much at stake, such a dense report to absorb, so much to clarify, with so little understanding, it is remarkable that Robert Mueller believes that his report is sufficient. Another “no deal” in a dead end town...
"What is going right for Trump? Just one thing: the economy. The latest GDP figures confirmed 3.1% growth in the first quarter, and the economy added 263,000 jobs. Why Trump does not just shut up about everything else and talk up the economy is beyond me..."
BTRTN: Do Dems Dare to Impeach? Nancy, Here's a Plan the Party Can Unite Behind
Born To Run The Numbers offers a plan that navigates the internecine battle between Democrats who want to impeach now, and Nancy Pelosi, who resists impeachment but is unclear about if, when, and why she might change her mind:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/05/btrtn-do-dems-dare-to-impeach-nancy.html
Excerpts:
"What is perhaps most unsettling to Democrats who favor impeachment is that Pelosi’s specific game plan is unclear, other than for vague references to allowing the legal processes to play out. Impatient Democrats think that Pelosi is playing into Trump’s hand in a different way. By failing to impeach, she is allowing him to 'play out the clock,' allowing Dem subpoenas to be gummed up in the court system until election day...
"Instead of trying to wound Trump with a thousand needle pricks as dozens of cases work through lower courts, Pelosi should pick a small number of cases that most clearly illustrate 'obstruction of oversight,' and demand an immediate, expedited review by the Supreme Court...
"We’d submit that there are the two cases that are most threatening to Donald Trump: the Congressional demand that the IRS release his taxes to a House committee and the subpoena requiring former White House Counsel Don McGahn to testify in public...
"If Roberts were to tip the court’s rulings in favor of the Congress, Trump would be faced with a momentous choice: does he release his taxes and allow McGahn to testify, or does he raise the stakes even further and openly defy the Supreme Court?"
BTRTN: Do Dems Dare to Impeach? Nancy, Here's a Plan the Party Can Unite Behind
Born To Run The Numbers offers a plan that navigates the internecine battle between Democrats who want to impeach now, and Nancy Pelosi, who resist impeachment but is unclear about if, when, and why she might change her mind:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/05/btrtn-do-dems-dare-to-impeach-nancy.html
Excerpts:
"What is perhaps most unsettling to Democrats who favor impeachment is that Pelosi’s specific game plan is unclear, other than for vague references to allowing the legal processes to play out. Impatient Democrats think that Pelosi is playing into Trump’s hand in a different way. By failing to impeach, she is allowing him to 'play out the clock,' allowing Dem subpoenas to be gummed up in the court system until election day...
"Instead of trying to wound Trump with a thousand needle pricks as dozens of cases work through lower courts, Pelosi should pick a small number of cases that most clearly illustrate 'obstruction of oversight,' and demand an immediate, expedited review by the Supreme Court...
"We’d submit that there are the two cases that are most threatening to Donald Trump: the Congressional demand that the IRS release his taxes to a House committee and the subpoena requiring former White House Counsel Don McGahn to testify in public...
"If Roberts were to tip the court’s rulings in favor of the Congress, Trump would be faced with a momentous choice: does he release his taxes and allow McGahn to testify, or does he raise the stakes even further and openly defy the Supreme Court?"
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