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Member since: Mon Jun 20, 2016, 05:20 PM
Number of posts: 8,121

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North Carolina voting analysis.

The Democrats currently have a big lead: using the registered supporters metric, they’re ahead by eleven points.

Now, this lead is very similar to 2016, when they lost the State to the Republicans.

But there’s a big difference: in 2016, the total early vote was much smaller (it was 3.1 million, a total that has already been surpassed) and there were 1.6 million votes on the day. This time, the number will be far smaller – I’d guess less than a million. That means that President Trump has to win “on the day voting” by three-to-one or more to be in with a shot. Doable? Yes. Easy? No Siree.

One last thought. At current rates of voting, and assuming that Biden is picking up half unaffiliated voters, Biden will pass Clinton’s vote total at the end of day on Thursday – a full four days before the election.


France hits 52,000 cases in one day, with a population one-fifth of America.


Why is Trump making a surprise recovery in the betting markets?

If you have been following WH2020 polling you’ll be aware that the numbers are still very much with Biden at both a national and a state level.

But this is not being reflected in the current betting. What is the biggest political gambling event of all time as is shown in the Smarkets chart above and as can be seen the gap is closing.



Holy Bunions! France (with population of one-fifth of USA) has 32,000 Covid cases in a day.

That is out of control.


538 now puts Biden ahead in Georgia!

Polling average

Trump: 46.5%
Biden: 48.0%

Projected vote share for Nov. 3

Trump: 49.5%
Biden: 49.7%


We received a flier from the Trump campaign with a mail-in ballot application, endorsed by Trump.

On the front it says, “President Trump needs you to act now.”

At the back it has a picture of Trump and states: “I will be an absentee voter. We have a lot of absentee voters. It works, so we are in favor of absentee.”

Are there two president Trumps? I ask, because the president Trump I have seen has been claiming that mail-in voting is rife with fraud and is the Democrats' way of rigging the election. But here he is encouraging people to vote by mail!

If Trump loses & uses dog whistles to call for rioting & bloodshed. What should be done about Trump?

Something I saw on Twitter captures Trump very well.

See graphic in reply to Trump post.


Please let's not talk about the details of Trump's discharge. I'm about to eat!

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