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CajunBlazer

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Gender: Male
Hometown: Alabama
Home country: USA
Member since: Sat Jun 13, 2015, 04:35 PM
Number of posts: 5,648

Journal Archives

After Iowa and New Hampshire, Bernie is in trouble

Bernie Sanders has an outside chance of winning Iowa and is well ahead in New Hampshire. His devoted followers believe that if he can manage to win both states, the momentum gained will propel him to eventual victory. However, momentum, in order to be effective, must be maintained. Have ever watched a sporting event when one team appears to have all of the momentum and then – bang! - in only one play the momentum changes sides and the other team ends up victorious. Politics is no different.

It’s strange that Iowa’s caucus and New Hampshire’s primary are the first states to test Presidential candidates because they are so atypical of our country as a whole – Iowa because of the strange rules used to pick the winners and New Hampshire because it is arguably the most libertarian state in the nation.

While Bernie could possibly win both Iowa and New Hampshire, any momentum he gains will be quickly be blunted because the next states in line are dramatically different and he is way behind in them. So let’s explore what Bernie can gain in the first caucus and the first primary and why his campaign is very likely to travel in reverse thereafter:

First of before even Iowa and New Hampshire, Hillary starts out with a big lead in super delegates: Hillary – 344, Sanders – 12, O’Malley – 3 = Hillary +332. Super delegates are Democratic Distinguished party leaders, Governors, Senators, Representatives, and DNC members who have committed to a candidate. Currently 354 Super delegates remain uncommitted, but more are committing to Hillary every week.

Now let’s look at the poll results for the early state caucuses and primaries:

First come Iowa and New Hampshire with a total of 85 delegates
Iowa (2/1) - average of 7 most recent polls - Hillary +3.3
New Hampshire (2/9) - average of 7 most recent poles - Sanders +14.3

Then right behind are Nevada and South Carolina with a total 96 delegates
Nevada (2/20) – average of 2 most recent polls – Hillary +19.5
South Carolina (2/27) - average of 2 most recent polls – Hillary +29.5

Then almost immediately comes the what is often called “Southeastern Conference primaries” (All 3/1)
Alabama (58 delegates) – no recent polls, expected to be like other southern states
American Samoa (10 delegates) – no recent polls
Arkansas (37 delegates) - no recent polls, expected to be like other southern states
Colorado (77 delegates) – poll in November – Hillary +28
Georgia (112 delegates) – poll in October – Hillary +57
Massachusetts (121 delegates) – poll in November – Hillary +25
Minnesota (94 delegates) – poll in January – Hillary +35
Oklahoma (42 delegates) - poll in November – Hillary +35
Tennessee (77 delegates) – poll in November – Hillary +20
Texas (237 delegates) – poll in November – Hillary +31
Vermont (23 delegates) - no recent polls
Virginia (112 delegates) – poll in November – Hillary +36

As you can see many are Southern states with large minority populations, a situation which is expected to help Clinton. Looking at the polling results for the SEC primaries states, while for some states the poll results are getting a bit old for my comfort, it is going to be very difficult for Sanders to make up for those kinds of big negative numbers.

Only Vermont and American Somoa appear to be winnable for Bernie and we don’t even have polls for those areas which total only 33 delegates. If Bernie wins both Iowa and New Hampshire (a feat that is by no means guaranteed) plus Vermont and American Soma he will have victories in four “states” with 118 delegates. He would also have 12 super delegates. If Hillary wins the other caucuses and primaries as expected, by March 2nd she will have won victories in states having 1,063 delegates along with 332 super delegates. At that point the Sanders campaign could well be hanging on by a thread.

If you are a Sanders fan and you are hoping for help in the remaining caucuses and primaries, there is really no good news. There are current polls for only a few of the remaining states, and here are the results of those state polls. They don’t look very encouraging for Bernie:

Ohio (3/15 – 121 delegates) – 2 recent polls – Hillary +29
Arizona (3/22 – 75 delegates) - poll in November – Hillary +28
Utah (3/22 – 28 delegates) – poll in January – Hillary +10
Alaska (3/25 – 28 delegates) – poll in January – Hillary +3
Wisconsin (4/5 – 89 delegates) – poll in January – Hillary +2
Maryland (4/26 -105 delegates) – poll in January – Hillary +13
Connecticut (4/26 – 65 delegates) – poll in November – Hillary +19
Pennsylvania (4/26 – 181 delegates) - poll in January – Hillary +17
West Virginia (5/10 – 35 delegates) - poll in January – Hillary +17
California (6/7 - 476 delegates) - poll in January – Hillary +11
Montana (6/7 – 22 delegates) – poll in November – Hillary +39
New Jersey (6/7 – 126 delegates) – 2 polls in November – Hillary +35

At the Democratic convention there will be 3,636 pledged delegates and 713 unpledged super delegates for a total of 4349 delegates. It takes a plurality of 2175 delegates to win. The bottom line for Sanders supporters – don’t expect Bernie Sanders be raising his hands in victory at the national convention.


After Iowa and New Hampshire, Bernie is in trouble

Bernie Sanders has an outside chance of winning Iowa and is well ahead in New Hampshire. His devoted followers believe that if he can manage to win both states, the momentum gained will propel him to eventual victory. However, momentum, in order to be effective, must be maintained. Have ever watched a sporting event when one team appears to have all of the momentum and then – bang! - in only one play the momentum changes sides and the other team ends up victorious. Politics is no different.

It’s strange that Iowa’s caucus and New Hampshire’s primary are the first states to test Presidential candidates because they are so atypical of our country as a whole – Iowa because of the strange rules used to pick the winners and New Hampshire because it is arguably the most libertarian state in the nation.

While Bernie could possibly win both Iowa and New Hampshire, any momentum he gains will be quickly be blunted because the next states in line are dramatically different and he is way behind in them. So let’s explore what Bernie can gain in the first caucus and the first primary and why his campaign is very likely to travel in reverse thereafter:

First of before even Iowa and New Hampshire, Hillary starts out with a big lead in super delegates: Hillary – 344, Sanders – 12, O’Malley – 3 = Hillary +332. Super delegates are Democratic Distinguished party leaders, Governors, Senators, Representatives, and DNC members who have committed to a candidate. Currently 354 Super delegates remain uncommitted, but more are committing to Hillary every week.

Now let’s look at the poll results for the early state caucuses and primaries:

First come Iowa and New Hampshire with a total of 85 delegates
Iowa (2/1) - average of 7 most recent polls - Hillary +3.3
New Hampshire (2/9) - average of 7 most recent poles - Sanders +14.3

Then right behind are Nevada and South Carolina with a total 96 delegates
Nevada (2/20) – average of 2 most recent polls – Hillary +19.5
South Carolina (2/27) - average of 2 most recent polls – Hillary +29.5

Then almost immediately comes the what is often called “Southeastern Conference primaries” (All 3/1)
Alabama (58 delegates) – no recent polls, expected to be like other southern states
American Samoa (10 delegates) – no recent polls
Arkansas (37 delegates) - no recent polls, expected to be like other southern states
Colorado (77 delegates) – poll in November – Hillary +28
Georgia (112 delegates) – poll in October – Hillary +57
Massachusetts (121 delegates) – poll in November – Hillary +25
Minnesota (94 delegates) – poll in January – Hillary +35
Oklahoma (42 delegates) - poll in November – Hillary +35
Tennessee (77 delegates) – poll in November – Hillary +20
Texas (237 delegates) – poll in November – Hillary +31
Vermont (23 delegates) - no recent polls
Virginia (112 delegates) – poll in November – Hillary +36

As you can see many are Southern states with large minority populations, a situation which is expected to help Clinton. Looking at the polling results for the SEC primaries states, while for some states the poll results are getting a bit old for my comfort, it is going to be very difficult for Sanders to make up for those kinds of big negative numbers.

Only Vermont and American Somoa appear to be winnable for Bernie and we don’t even have polls for those areas which total only 33 delegates. If Bernie wins both Iowa and New Hampshire (a feat that is by no means guaranteed) plus Vermont and American Soma he will have victories in four “states” with 118 delegates. He would also have 12 super delegates. If Hillary wins the other caucuses and primaries as expected, by March 2nd she will have won victories in states having 1,063 delegates along with 332 super delegates. At that point the Sanders campaign could well be hanging on by a thread.

If you are a Sanders fan and you are hoping for help in the remaining caucuses and primaries, there is really no good news. There are current polls for only a few of the remaining states, and here are the results of those state polls. They don’t look very encouraging for Bernie:

Ohio (3/15 – 121 delegates) – 2 recent polls – Hillary +29
Arizona (3/22 – 75 delegates) - poll in November – Hillary +28
Utah (3/22 – 28 delegates) – poll in January – Hillary +10
Alaska (3/25 – 28 delegates) – poll in January – Hillary +3
Wisconsin (4/5 – 89 delegates) – poll in January – Hillary +2
Maryland (4/26 -105 delegates) – poll in January – Hillary +13
Connecticut (4/26 – 65 delegates) – poll in November – Hillary +19
Pennsylvania (4/26 – 181 delegates) - poll in January – Hillary +17
West Virginia (5/10 – 35 delegates) - poll in January – Hillary +17
California (6/7 - 476 delegates) - poll in January – Hillary +11
Montana (6/7 – 22 delegates) – poll in November – Hillary +39
New Jersey (6/7 – 126 delegates) – 2 polls in November – Hillary +35

At the Democratic convention there will be 3,636 pledged delegates and 713 unpledged super delegates for a total of 4349 delegates. It takes a plurality of 2175 delegates to win. The bottom line for Sanders supporters – don’t expect Bernie Sanders be raising his hands in victory at the national convention.

The most accurate Iowa Democratic poll has just come out!

The final Des Moines Register Iowa Democratic Caucus poll has historically been the best predictor of the final results. The results of their final poll was published by the paper on their Website at 6:07 local time this afternoon and it there is good news for Hillary Clinton fans.

The Poll shows that Hillary has 3% lead over Bernie Sanders.

Clinton is the top pick for 45 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers, with Sanders at 42 percent, The Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics poll shows.

Clinton's support is up 3 percentage points from earlier this month, and Sanders' is 2 percentage points higher.

Hillary Clinton has kept a tight grip on her slim lead over Bernie Sanders in the waning hours leading into the Iowa caucuses, a new Iowa Poll shows.

Clinton, a former first lady and former secretary of state, wins a majority among caucusgoers who are 65 and older, Catholics and moderates. Sanders, a U.S. senator representing Vermont, wins a majority of those under 35, first-time caucusgoers and political independents.

"Clinton's voters are more certain and much more likely to have caucused before," Axelrod said. "Bernie's organizational task, counting so heavily on first-time caucusgoers — many of them young — is greater."

Former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley snags 3 percent of likely caucusgoers' support. He had 4 percent support in early January.


Clinton keeps slim edge over Sanders

Sanders supporters will claim that Bernie can easily make up the difference with a good turn out, but the final Des Moines Register has an excellent track record of picking the ultimate winner. It is particularly good in predicting new caucusgoer surges such as the one that gave Barack Obama an unexpected Iowa victory in 2008. Regardless, you can bet Bernie supporters wish that the numbers were reversed.

Discussion of Poll Accuracy

Some have asked for information confirming how accurate this poll is. With the link to the Politico article:

The recent track record of her firm, Selzer & Company, is impressive: Selzer, who has polled for the Des Moines Register for decades, was the only pollster to nail the order of Democratic candidates in 2004. Her final poll before the 2008 caucuses accurately predicted that a surge of first-time caucusgoers would propel Barack Obama to a decisive victory. Selzer saw former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum’s surge in the waning days before the 2012 GOP caucuses when few others did.

(snip)

“I will take the Des Moines Register poll, which is the gold standard for polls in Iowa,” Sanders said in late October.


Ann Selzer's secret sauce

I suggest that you read this entire Politico article - well worth it if you want to sleep soundly tonight.

The most accurate Iowa Democratic poll has just come out!

The final Des Moines Register Iowa Democratic Caucus poll has historically been the best predictor of the final results. The results of their final poll was published by the paper on their Website at 6:07 local time this afternoon and it there is good news for Hillary Clinton fans.

The Poll shows that Hillary has 3% lead over Bernie Sanders.

Clinton is the top pick for 45 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers, with Sanders at 42 percent, The Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics poll shows.

Clinton's support is up 3 percentage points from earlier this month, and Sanders' is 2 percentage points higher.

Hillary Clinton has kept a tight grip on her slim lead over Bernie Sanders in the waning hours leading into the Iowa caucuses, a new Iowa Poll shows.

Clinton, a former first lady and former secretary of state, wins a majority among caucusgoers who are 65 and older, Catholics and moderates. Sanders, a U.S. senator representing Vermont, wins a majority of those under 35, first-time caucusgoers and political independents.

"Clinton's voters are more certain and much more likely to have caucused before," Axelrod said. "Bernie's organizational task, counting so heavily on first-time caucusgoers — many of them young — is greater."

Former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley snags 3 percent of likely caucusgoers' support. He had 4 percent support in early January.


Clinton keeps slim edge over Sanders

Sanders supporters will claim that Bernie can easily make up the difference with a good turn out, but the final Des Moines Register has an excellent track record of picking the ultimate winner. Regardless, you can bet Bernie supporters wish that the numbers were reversed.

EDIT: Discussion of Poll Accuracy

Some have asked for information confirming how accurate this poll is. I stole this link from the reply by DemocrateSinceBirth below with the link from a Politico article:

The recent track record of her firm, Selzer & Company, is impressive: Selzer, who has polled for the Des Moines Register for decades, was the only pollster to nail the order of Democratic candidates in 2004. Her final poll before the 2008 caucuses accurately predicted that a surge of first-time caucusgoers would propel Barack Obama to a decisive victory. Selzer saw former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum’s surge in the waning days before the 2012 GOP caucuses when few others did.

(snip)

“I will take the Des Moines Register poll, which is the gold standard for polls in Iowa,” Sanders said in late October.


Ann Selzer's secret sauce


(Updated 1/29/16) Latest Democratic nomination poll results - courtesy of RealClearPolitics.com

Hillary looking good again in Iowa! And great every where else but NH.

Friday, 1/29/16:

Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (PPP) Clinton 48, Sanders 40, O'Malley 7
Clinton +8

Thursday, 1/28/16


2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination (IBD/TIPP) Clinton 50, Sanders 38, O'Malley 2
Clinton +12

Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (NBC/WSJ/Marist) Clinton 48, Sanders 45, O'Malley 3
Clinton +3

Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (Monmouth) Clinton 47, Sanders 42, O'Malley 6
Clinton +5

New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary (NBC/WSJ/Marist) Sanders 57, Clinton 38, O'Malley 2
Sanders +19

South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (NBC/WSJ/Marist) Clinton 64, Sanders 27, O'Malley 2
Clinton +37

Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary (Franklin & Marshall) Clinton 46, Sanders 29, O'Malley 2
Clinton +17

Wisconsin Democratic Presidential Primary (Marquette) Clinton 45, Sanders 43, O'Malley 1
Clinton +2

Wednesday, 1/27/16


2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination (ABC News/Wash Post) Clinton 55, Sanders 36, O'Malley 4
Clinton +19

Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (Quinnipiac) Clinton 45, Sanders 49, O'Malley 4
Sanders +4

New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary (Emerson) Sanders 52, Clinton 44, O'Malley 3
Sanders +8

North Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (Civitas) Clinton 53, Sanders 28, O'Malley 2 Clinton +25

Tuesday, 1/26/16


New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary (Boston Herald/FPU) Sanders 55, Clinton 39, O'Malley 2
Sanders +16

New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary (ARG) Sanders 49, Clinton 42, O'Malley 3 Sanders +7

Monday, 1/25/16:


2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination (CNN/ORC) Clinton 52, Sanders 38, O'Malley 2
Clinton +14

2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination (FOX News) Clinton 49, Sanders 37, O'Malley 1
Clinton +12

Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (FOX News) Clinton 48, Sanders 42, O'Malley 3
Clinton +6

Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (ARG) Clinton 45, Sanders 48, O'Malley 3
Sanders +3

Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (Iowa St. Univ./WHO-TV) Clinton 47, Sanders 45, O'Malley 1
Clinton +2

New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary (FOX News) Sanders 56, Clinton 34, O'Malley 3
Sanders +22

Sunday 1/24/16


Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (CBS News/YouGov) Clinton 46, Sanders 47, O'Malley 5
Sanders +1

New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary (CBS News/YouGov) Sanders 57, Clinton 38, O'Malley 5
Sanders +19

South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (CBS News/YouGov) Clinton 60, Sanders 38, O'Malley 0
Clinton +22

Minnesota Democratic Presidential Caucus (Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon) Clinton 59, Sanders 25, O'Malley 1
Clinton +34

Saturday, 1/23/16

(no new Democratic polls)

Friday8, 1/22/16

Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (Loras College) Clinton 59, Sanders 30, O'Malley 7
Clinton +29

New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary (Suffolk University) Sanders 50, Clinton 41, O'Malley 2 S
anders +9

Thursday, 1/21/16

Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (KBUR) Clinton 48, Sanders 39, O'Malley 7
Clinton +9

Wednesday, 1/20/16

New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary (Gravis) Sanders 46, Clinton 43, O'Malley 2
Sanders +3

Florida Democratic Presidential Primary (Florida Atlantic University) Clinton 62, Sanders 26, O'Malley 4
Clinton +36

North Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (PPP) Clinton 59, Sanders 26, O'Malley 5
Clinton +33

Tuesday, 1/19/16

2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination (Monmouth) Clinton 52, Sanders 37, O'Malley 2
Clinton +15

New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary (CNN/WMUR) Sanders 60, Clinton 33, O'Malley 1
Sanders +27

New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary (ARG) Sanders 49, Clinton 43, O'Malley 3
Sanders +6

Maryland Democratic Presidential Primary (Gonzales Research) Clinton 40, Sanders 27, O'Malley 5
Clinton +13

Monday, 1/18/16

(No new Democratic primary polls)

Sunday, 1/17/16


2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination (NBC News/Wall St. Jrl) Clinton 59, Sanders 34, O'Malley 2
Clinton +25

Utah Democratic Presidential Caucus (Salt Lake Tribune/SurveyUSA) Clinton 50, Sanders 40, O'Malley 2
Clinton +10

(Updated 1/29/16) Latest Democratic nomination poll results - courtesy of RealClearPolitics.com

Friday, 1/29/16:

Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (PPP) Clinton 48, Sanders 40, O'Malley 7
Clinton +8

Thursday, 1/28/16


2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination (IBD/TIPP) Clinton 50, Sanders 38, O'Malley 2
Clinton +12

Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (NBC/WSJ/Marist) Clinton 48, Sanders 45, O'Malley 3
Clinton +3

Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (Monmouth) Clinton 47, Sanders 42, O'Malley 6
Clinton +5

New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary (NBC/WSJ/Marist) Sanders 57, Clinton 38, O'Malley 2
Sanders +19

South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (NBC/WSJ/Marist) Clinton 64, Sanders 27, O'Malley 2
Clinton +37

Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary (Franklin & Marshall) Clinton 46, Sanders 29, O'Malley 2
Clinton +17

Wisconsin Democratic Presidential Primary (Marquette) Clinton 45, Sanders 43, O'Malley 1
Clinton +2

Wednesday, 1/27/16


2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination (ABC News/Wash Post) Clinton 55, Sanders 36, O'Malley 4
Clinton +19

Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (Quinnipiac) Clinton 45, Sanders 49, O'Malley 4
Sanders +4

New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary (Emerson) Sanders 52, Clinton 44, O'Malley 3
Sanders +8

North Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (Civitas) Clinton 53, Sanders 28, O'Malley 2 Clinton +25

Tuesday, 1/26/16


New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary (Boston Herald/FPU) Sanders 55, Clinton 39, O'Malley 2
Sanders +16

New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary (ARG) Sanders 49, Clinton 42, O'Malley 3 Sanders +7

Monday, 1/25/16:


2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination (CNN/ORC) Clinton 52, Sanders 38, O'Malley 2
Clinton +14

2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination (FOX News) Clinton 49, Sanders 37, O'Malley 1
Clinton +12

Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (FOX News) Clinton 48, Sanders 42, O'Malley 3
Clinton +6

Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (ARG) Clinton 45, Sanders 48, O'Malley 3
Sanders +3

Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (Iowa St. Univ./WHO-TV) Clinton 47, Sanders 45, O'Malley 1
Clinton +2

New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary (FOX News) Sanders 56, Clinton 34, O'Malley 3
Sanders +22

Sunday 1/24/16


Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (CBS News/YouGov) Clinton 46, Sanders 47, O'Malley 5
Sanders +1

New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary (CBS News/YouGov) Sanders 57, Clinton 38, O'Malley 5
Sanders +19

South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (CBS News/YouGov) Clinton 60, Sanders 38, O'Malley 0
Clinton +22

Minnesota Democratic Presidential Caucus (Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon) Clinton 59, Sanders 25, O'Malley 1
Clinton +34

Saturday, 1/23/16

(no new Democratic polls)

Friday8, 1/22/16

Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (Loras College) Clinton 59, Sanders 30, O'Malley 7
Clinton +29

New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary (Suffolk University) Sanders 50, Clinton 41, O'Malley 2 S
anders +9

Thursday, 1/21/16

Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (KBUR) Clinton 48, Sanders 39, O'Malley 7
Clinton +9

Wednesday, 1/20/16

New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary (Gravis) Sanders 46, Clinton 43, O'Malley 2
Sanders +3

Florida Democratic Presidential Primary (Florida Atlantic University) Clinton 62, Sanders 26, O'Malley 4
Clinton +36

North Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (PPP) Clinton 59, Sanders 26, O'Malley 5
Clinton +33

Tuesday, 1/19/16

2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination (Monmouth) Clinton 52, Sanders 37, O'Malley 2
Clinton +15

New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary (CNN/WMUR) Sanders 60, Clinton 33, O'Malley 1
Sanders +27

New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary (ARG) Sanders 49, Clinton 43, O'Malley 3
Sanders +6

Maryland Democratic Presidential Primary (Gonzales Research) Clinton 40, Sanders 27, O'Malley 5
Clinton +13

Monday, 1/18/16

(No new Democratic primary polls)

Sunday, 1/17/16


2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination (NBC News/Wall St. Jrl) Clinton 59, Sanders 34, O'Malley 2
Clinton +25

Utah Democratic Presidential Caucus (Salt Lake Tribune/SurveyUSA) Clinton 50, Sanders 40, O'Malley 2
Clinton +10


Gabby Giffords & Mark Kelly to Campaign for Hillary Clinton in Iowa

On Saturday, January 30, gun violence prevention advocates former Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords and Captain Mark Kelly will campaign for Hillary Clinton in Iowa. Giffords and Kelly will join Hillary Clinton for a Get Out the Caucus event in Ames, and then they will kick off a canvass in Des Moines.

Giffords and Kelly will discuss what’s at stake for Iowans in the February 1st caucus, and Hillary Clinton’s record of advocating for commonsense approaches to reduce gun violence. Clinton is committed to supporting sensible actions to address gun violence, including comprehensive background checks, cracking down on illegal gun traffickers, holding dealers and manufacturers accountable when they endanger Americans, and keeping guns out of the hands of domestic abusers and stalkers.

Gabby Giffords & Mark Kelly to Campaign for Hillary Clinton in Iowa on Saturday, January 30, 2016

Washington Post editorial board: Bernie Sanders’s fiction-filled campaign

SEN. BERNIE Sanders (I-Vt.) is leading in New Hampshire and within striking distance in Iowa, in large part because he is playing the role of uncorrupted anti-establishment crusader. But Mr. Sanders is not a brave truth-teller. He is a politician selling his own brand of fiction to a slice of the country that eagerly wants to buy it.

(snip)

He would be a braver truth-teller if he explained how he would go about rationing health care like European countries do. His program would be more grounded in reality if he addressed the fact of chronic slow growth in Europe and explained how he would update the 20th-century model of social democracy to accomplish its goals more efficiently. Instead, he promises large benefits and few drawbacks.

(snip)

Mr. Sanders is a lot like many other politicians. Strong ideological preferences guide his thinking, except when politics does, as it has on gun control. When reality is ideologically or politically inconvenient, he and his campaign talk around it. Mr. Sanders’s success so far does not show that the country is ready for a political revolution. It merely proves that many progressives like being told everything they want to hear.

Bernie Sanders’s fiction-filled campaign

Here's what you need to know about the 7 Clinton emails ...

...which the State Department is withholding due to classification issues.

1) There was no government rule which prevented Hillary from setting up and using a private email server to handle her government emails.

2) Other State Departments heads including Colon Powell used the exact same set up. I don't hear the Republicans complaining about him.

3) Hillary's server was used to send and receive messages to and from other government employees in the State Department and for her personal email traffic as well.

4) Any official State Department emails set to or received from Hillary's server were also maintained the State Department's government servers - therefore there is a government record of each and every one.

5) Investigations determined that Hillary's server had the exact same security protections required on all State Department government servers.

6) Investigation have also concluded that that there was no security breaches of Hillary's server - yes IT security experts can determine if such a breach occurred.

7) Because an email server is most vulnerable to security breaches cause by user error - such as opening a document on a fake email which releases a virus which allows 0the server to be hacked - the less people having access to a server, the more secure it is. So Hillary's server was probably more secure than the State Department's email machines. (Note: There have been several reports of government servers being hacked and very sensitive data being lost. This did not happen on Hillary's server.)

7) The 7 emails in question were not classified when they were sent and received.

8) The State Department is not withholding the 7 emails because they believe they that the emails should be classified; it is another government agency that is claiming that they should be classified. It is a well known fact that there is a propensity in many government agencies to over classify data - often because the information in question may make the the agency look bad if it was ever publicized. It is their way of making sure that the public never knows that they screwed up. I am not saying that is what is going on here, but I certainly wouldn't be surprised me if it were the case because that is often a prime reason why different agencies disagree on information classification.

9) The State Department is not saying that they will never distribute the emails. They are saying that they are withholding them for now until they can do their own investigation as to whether the emails should be classified.

Bottom line: The entire affair was totally blown totally out of proportion by Republican seeking political advantage. If Democrats are repeating Republicans talking points on this issue, they should be ashamed of themselves.

And yes, I am an IT professional who knows what he is talking about when it comes to cyber security.

Here's what you need to know about the 7 Clinton emails ...

...which the State Department is withholding due to classification issues.

1) There was no government rule which prevented Hillary from setting up and using a private email server to handle her government emails.

2) Other State Departments heads including Colon Powell used the exact same set up. I don't hear the Republicans complaining about him.

3) Hillary's server was used to send and receive messages to and from other government employees in the State Department and her personal emails as well.

4) Any official State Department emails set to or received from Hillary's server were also maintained the State Department's government servers - therefore there is a government record of each and every one.

5) Investigations determined that Hillary's server had the exact same security protections required on all State Department government servers.

6) Investigation have also concluded that that there was no security breaches of Hillary's server - yes IT security experts can determine if such a breach occurred.

7) Because an email server is most vulnerable to security breaches cause by user error - such as opening a document on a fake email which releases a virus which allows 0the server to be hacked - the less people having access to a server, the more secure it is. So Hillary's server was probably more secure than the State Department's email machines. (Note: There have been several reports of government servers being hacked and very sensitive data being lost. This did not happen on Hillary's server.)

9) The 7 emails in question were not classified when they were sent and received.

9) The State Department is not withholding the 7 emails because they believe they that the emails should be classified; it is another government agency that is claiming that they should be classified. It is a well known fact that there is a propensity in many government agencies to over classify data - often because the information in question may make the the agency look bad if it was ever publicized. It is their way of making sure that the public never knows that they screwed up. I am not saying that is what is going on here, but I certainly wouldn't be surprised me if it were the case because that is often a prime reason why different agencies disagree on information classification.

10) The State Department is not saying that they will never distribute the emails. They are saying that they are withholding them for now until they can do their own investigation as to whether the emails should be classified.

Bottom line: The entire affair was totally blown out of proportion by Republican seeking political advantage. If Democrats are repeating Republicans talking points on this issue, they should be ashamed of themselves.

And yes, I am an IT professional who knows what he is talking about when it comes to cyber security.
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