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CajunBlazer

Profile Information

Gender: Male
Hometown: Alabama
Home country: USA
Member since: Sat Jun 13, 2015, 05:35 PM
Number of posts: 5,648

Journal Archives

The Day of Reconning Is Approaching

Everyone has to wake up sooner or later and dreams of magical unicorns have a tendency to evaporate in the cold clear light of reality every morning. For the Bernie Sanders campaign the wake up call has already been set and the phone is about to ring.

The Nevada caucuses, except for a poll by a Republican organization with questionable accuracy and polling methods, there is no recent poll data. The caucus process is so difficult to predict, the next poll is probably going the official caucus results on 2/20.

However, for those willing to spend a little time doing research, the probable outcome of 12 polls over four days starting 2/27 is pretty clear. Recently some new poll data has become available for quite a few of these 12 state primaries in it appears that the Bernie Sanders campaign is in deep and serious trouble going forward.

The following are the poll data from the most recent polls for those states:

2/27/16
South Caroline (50 delegates) - avg. 5 polls since 2/10/15 Clinton +21.2

3/1/16
Alabama (58 delegates) – no recent polls, compare to other southern states
American Samoa (10 delegates) – no recent polls
Arkansas (37 delegates) - poll -2/4/16 - Clinton +32
Colorado (77 delegates) – poll in November – Hillary +28
Georgia (112 delegates) – poll 2/4/16 – Hillary +41
Massachusetts (121 delegates) – poll in November – Hillary +25
Minnesota (94 delegates) – poll 1/20/16 – Hillary +34
Oklahoma (42 delegates) - poll 2/9/16 – Hillary +16
Tennessee (77 delegates) – poll in November – Hillary +20
Texas (237 delegates) – poll 1/26/16 – Hillary +34
Vermont (23 delegates) - no recent polls
Virginia (112 delegates) –poll 2/14 – Hillary +14

I have also gone though the available polls for the rest of the states on the primary and caucus calendars and Hillary way ahead in most and not behind in any state.

Latest Poll Results from RealClearPolitics.com

Tuesday, February 16

South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (CNN/ORC) Clinton 54, Sanders 38
Clinton +18

Virginia Democratic Presidential Primary (Christopher Newport U.) Clinton 52, Sanders 40
Clinton +12

South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (PPP) Clinton 54, Sanders 34
Clinton +21

Monday, February 15

South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (Gracis) Clinton 59, Sanders 41
Clinton +18

Sunday, February 14

South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (CBS/YouGov) Clinton 59, Sanders 40
Clinton +19

Saturday, February 13

South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (ARG) Clinton 65, Sanders 27
Clinton +38

Friday, February 12

Nevada Democratic Presidential Caucus (Target Point - Republican) Clinton 45, Sanders
Tie

Wednesday, February 10

Oklahoma Democratic Presidential Primary (The Oklahoman) Clinton 44, Sanders 28
Clinton +16

Monday, February 8

Arkansas Democratic Presidential Primary (Talk Business/Hendrix College) Clinton 57, Sanders 25
Clinton +32

Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary (FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell) Clinton 57, Sanders 28
Clinton +29

Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary (IMP/Target Insyght) Clinton 62, Sanders 30
Clinton +32

North Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (High Point) Clinton 55, Sanders 29
Clinton +26

New York Democratic Presidential Primary (Siena) Clinton 55, Sanders 34
Clinton +21

Friday, February 5

Georgia Democratic Presidential Primary (WSB-TV/Landmark 9) Clinton 63, Sanders 22
Clinton +41

Friday, January 29

Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary (FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell) Clinton 61, Sanders 34
Clinton +27

Thursday, January 28

South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (NBC/WSJ/Marist) Clinton 64, Sanders 27,
Clinton +37

Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary (Franklin & Marshall) Clinton 46, Sanders 29, O'Malley 2
Clinton +17

Wisconsin Democratic Presidential Primary (Marquette) Clinton 45, Sanders 43,
Clinton +2

Texas Democratic Presidential Primary (KTVT-CBS 11) Clinton 50, Sanders 16
Clinton +34

Sunday, January 24

South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary
CBS News/YouGov
Clinton 60, Sanders 38, O'Malley 0
Clinton +22

Minnesota Democratic Presidential Caucus (Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon) Clinton 59, Sanders 25,
Clinton +34

Friday, January 22

Oklahoma Democratic Presidential Primary (Sooner Poll/News 9/News on 6) Clinton 41, Sanders 16
Clinton +25

Wednesday, January 20

Florida Democratic Presidential Primary (Florida Atlantic University) Clinton 62, Sanders 26,
Clinton +36

North Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (PPP) Clinton 59, Sanders 26
Clinton +33

Tuesday, January 19

Maryland Democratic Presidential Primary (Gonzales Research) Clinton 40, Sanders 27,
Clinton +13

DU


Most of the polling emphasized to date has been the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary polls, and polls of other states have flown under the radar. Now that Iowa and NH are in our rear view mirror, it time to focus on recent polling in the other states. Courtesy of Real.ClearPolitics.com:

Wednesday, February 10

Oklahoma Democratic Presidential Primary (The Oklahoman) Clinton 44, Sanders 28
Clinton +16

Monday, February 8

Arkansas Democratic Presidential Primary (Talk Business/Hendrix College) Clinton 57, Sanders 25
Clinton +32

Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary (FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell) Clinton 57, Sanders 28
Clinton +29

Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary (IMP/Target Insyght) Clinton 62, Sanders 30
Clinton +32

North Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (High Point) Clinton 55, Sanders 29
Clinton +26

New York Democratic Presidential Primary (Siena) Clinton 55, Sanders 34
Clinton +21

Friday, February 5


Georgia Democratic Presidential Primary (WSB-TV/Landmark 9) Clinton 63, Sanders 22
Clinton +41

Friday, January 29


Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary (FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell) Clinton 61, Sanders 34
Clinton +27

Thursday, January 28


South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (NBC/WSJ/Marist) Clinton 64, Sanders 27,
Clinton +37

Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary (Franklin & Marshall) Clinton 46, Sanders 29, O'Malley 2
Clinton +17

Wisconsin Democratic Presidential Primary (Marquette) Clinton 45, Sanders 43,
Clinton +2

Texas Democratic Presidential Primary (KTVT-CBS 11) Clinton 50, Sanders 16
Clinton +34

Sunday, January 24

South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary
CBS News/YouGov
Clinton 60, Sanders 38, O'Malley 0
Clinton +22

Minnesota Democratic Presidential Caucus (Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon) Clinton 59, Sanders 25,
Clinton +34

Latest Poll Results from RealClearPolitics.com

Tuesday, February 16

South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (CNN/ORC) Clinton 54, Sanders 38
Clinton +18

Virginia Democratic Presidential Primary (Christopher Newport U.) Clinton 52, Sanders 40
Clinton +12

South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (PPP) Clinton 54, Sanders 34
Clinton +21

Monday, February 15

South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (Gracis) Clinton 59, Sanders 41
Clinton +18

Sunday, February 14

South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (CBS/YouGov) Clinton 59, Sanders 40
Clinton +19

Saturday, February 13

South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (ARG) Clinton 65, Sanders 27
Clinton +38

Friday, February 12


Nevada Democratic Presidential Caucus (Target Point - Republican) Clinton 45, Sanders
Tie

Wednesday, February 10

Oklahoma Democratic Presidential Primary (The Oklahoman) Clinton 44, Sanders 28
Clinton +16

Monday, February 8

Arkansas Democratic Presidential Primary (Talk Business/Hendrix College) Clinton 57, Sanders 25
Clinton +32

Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary (FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell) Clinton 57, Sanders 28
Clinton +29

Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary (IMP/Target Insyght) Clinton 62, Sanders 30
Clinton +32

North Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (High Point) Clinton 55, Sanders 29
Clinton +26

New York Democratic Presidential Primary (Siena) Clinton 55, Sanders 34
Clinton +21

Friday, February 5


Georgia Democratic Presidential Primary (WSB-TV/Landmark 9) Clinton 63, Sanders 22
Clinton +41

Friday, January 29


Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary (FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell) Clinton 61, Sanders 34
Clinton +27

Thursday, January 28

South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (NBC/WSJ/Marist) Clinton 64, Sanders 27,
Clinton +37

Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary (Franklin & Marshall) Clinton 46, Sanders 29, O'Malley 2
Clinton +17

Wisconsin Democratic Presidential Primary (Marquette) Clinton 45, Sanders 43,
Clinton +2

Texas Democratic Presidential Primary (KTVT-CBS 11) Clinton 50, Sanders 16
Clinton +34

Sunday, January 24


South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary
CBS News/YouGov
Clinton 60, Sanders 38, O'Malley 0
Clinton +22

Minnesota Democratic Presidential Caucus (Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon) Clinton 59, Sanders 25,
Clinton +34

Friday, January 22


Oklahoma Democratic Presidential Primary (Sooner Poll/News 9/News on 6) Clinton 41, Sanders 16
Clinton +25

Wednesday, January 20

Florida Democratic Presidential Primary (Florida Atlantic University) Clinton 62, Sanders 26,
Clinton +36

North Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (PPP) Clinton 59, Sanders 26
Clinton +33

Tuesday, January 19

Maryland Democratic Presidential Primary (Gonzales Research) Clinton 40, Sanders 27,
Clinton +13




Most of the polling emphasized to date has been the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary polls, and polls of other states have flown under the radar. Now that Iowa and NH are in our rear view mirror, it time to focus on recent polling in the other states. Courtesy of Real.ClearPolitics.com:

Wednesday, February 10

Oklahoma Democratic Presidential Primary (The Oklahoman) Clinton 44, Sanders 28
Clinton +16

Monday, February 8

Arkansas Democratic Presidential Primary (Talk Business/Hendrix College) Clinton 57, Sanders 25
Clinton +32

Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary (FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell) Clinton 57, Sanders 28
Clinton +29

Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary (IMP/Target Insyght) Clinton 62, Sanders 30
Clinton +32

North Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (High Point) Clinton 55, Sanders 29
Clinton +26

New York Democratic Presidential Primary (Siena) Clinton 55, Sanders 34
Clinton +21

Friday, February 5


Georgia Democratic Presidential Primary (WSB-TV/Landmark 9) Clinton 63, Sanders 22
Clinton +41

Friday, January 29


Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary (FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell) Clinton 61, Sanders 34
Clinton +27

Thursday, January 28


South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (NBC/WSJ/Marist) Clinton 64, Sanders 27,
Clinton +37

Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary (Franklin & Marshall) Clinton 46, Sanders 29, O'Malley 2
Clinton +17

Wisconsin Democratic Presidential Primary (Marquette) Clinton 45, Sanders 43,
Clinton +2

Texas Democratic Presidential Primary (KTVT-CBS 11) Clinton 50, Sanders 16
Clinton +34

Sunday, January 24

South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary
CBS News/YouGov
Clinton 60, Sanders 38, O'Malley 0
Clinton +22

Minnesota Democratic Presidential Caucus (Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon) Clinton 59, Sanders 25,
Clinton +34

It is time for Bernie to show us how it is done

Bernie best supporters have been telling us that despite all of our doubts, Bernie Sanders will actually be able to implement the progressive programs on his his to do list once he is elected President. Everyone seems to agree that this will be difficult because all of those program will have to be implemented over the strenuous objections of Republicans in Congress, but many people on DU believe he can get it done.

Okay, let's put that trust to the test. President Obama will be nominating a replacement for the Supreme Court vacancy and the Republican Senators are promising to delay confirmation for a year until the next President takes office. The Senate is Bernie home. It is where has worked for 10 years. The Republican Senators in opposition to confirming Obama nominee are all Bernie's colleagues.

Let's see if Bernie can convince his Republican friends in the Senate to give the President's choice a fair hearing and fair up or down vote. Compared to enacting his controversial programs this should be easy for Bernie. After all, President Obama is likely to nominate a very qualified person who has recently been vetted by the Senate for another position by an overwhelming majority of Senate votes. Surely it will be easy for Bernie to convince Republican Senators confirm such a nominee. That should be an easy task for someone of Bernie's extraordinary communication and persuasive skills. And in in the past he has exhibited amazing people skills when dealing with his Senate peers.

If Bernie is as good as my feller DU'er say he is, the new Supreme Court Justice should be taking his/her place on the highest bench in a couple of months or so.

Go get 'em Bernie!!! Get 'er done!!!

The Death of Justice Scalia Puts Presidential Race in a New Perspective

When I wrote the blog post last July on the affect the Presidential election would have on the path forward of the Supreme Court (The Supreme Court after the Upcoming Elections – An Analysis), I had no idea that the issue would become prevalent before the general election. I believed at the time that we would be dealing with retirements and/or deaths of the Supreme Court Justices during the next President’s first term, or more certainly during his/her second term if reelected.

However the sudden death of Justice Antonin Scalia has added a new perspective to this election cycle. Of course, one would normally assume that President Obama’s nominee to replace Scalia would take office before the November elections. However, I find it almost impossible to believe that the Republican controlled Senate will confirm President Obama’s nominee if that person even if that person is not a true progressive. Already I am hearing the new Republican refrain: “It is traditional not to confirm a Supreme Court Justice during a Presidential Election. That choice should be deferred to will of the people”. Several Republican Senators were singing variations of this tune including Mitch McConnell. They obviously will do their level best to delay confirmation of any nominee until after the next President takes office. I think that it is entirely likely that the first task of the next President of the United States will be to choose Justice Scalia’s replacement.

Even if President Obama is successful in having his nominee confirmed, that is unlikely to be the end of the Supreme Court drama. Scalia, who was almost 80 when he died, was only the second oldest Justice on the Court. Ruth Bader Ginsburg will be 83 when the next President takes office and will be 91 if she remains on the court for the next eight years. Anthony Kennedy will be 80 in July of this year and Stephen Breyer will be 78 by the time the next President takes the oath of office. Ginsburg and Kennedy have had health issues in the past; in Ginsburg case they were very serious health issues. It is entirely possible that one or more of the remaining Justices will no longer be on the bench four years from now. That is even more likely to be the case in the next eight years if the President we elect in November wins a second term.

The untimely death of Anton Scalia will call attention to the role the Presidential election will have on setting the direction of the Supreme Court for the next 20 years. Surely it will reemphasize the need by both the Republican and Democratic Parties to nominate “electable” candidates. Those candidates also need to have “long coattails” because the fight for control of the Senate in the November will also take center stage in the battle to control the nation’s highest court.

Until now the fringes of both parties have been dominating the nomination cycles with their anger and disenchantment. .......

Rest of article here: The Death of Justice Scalia Puts Presidential Race in a New Perspective

The Death of Justice Scalia Puts Presidential Race in a New Perspective

When I wrote the blog post last July on the affect the Presidential election would have on the path forward of the Supreme Court (The Supreme Court after the Upcoming Elections – An Analysis), I had no idea that the issue would become prevalent before the general election. I believed at the time that we would be dealing with retirements and/or deaths of the Supreme Court Justices during the next President’s first term, or more certainly during his/her second term if reelected.

However the sudden death of Justice Antonin Scalia has added a new perspective to this election cycle. Of course, one would normally assume that President Obama’s nominee to replace Scalia would take office before the November elections. However, I find it almost impossible to believe that the Republican controlled Senate will confirm President Obama’s nominee if that person even if that person is not a true progressive. Already I am hearing the new Republican refrain: “It is traditional not to confirm a Supreme Court Justice during a Presidential Election. That choice should be deferred to will of the people”. Several Republican Senators were singing variations of this tune including Mitch McConnell. They obviously will do their level best to delay confirmation of any nominee until after the next President takes office. I think that it is entirely likely that the first task of the next President of the United States will be to choose Justice Scalia’s replacement.

Even if President Obama is successful in having his nominee confirmed, that is unlikely to be the end of the Supreme Court drama. Scalia, who was almost 80 when he died, was only the second oldest Justice on the Court. Ruth Bader Ginsburg will be 83 when the next President takes office and will be 91 if she remains on the court for the next eight years. Anthony Kennedy will be 80 in July of this year and Stephen Breyer will be 78 by the time the next President takes the oath of office. Ginsburg and Kennedy have had health issues in the past; in Ginsburg case they were very serious health issues. It is entirely possible that one or more of the remaining Justices will no longer be on the bench four years from now. That is even more likely to be the case in the next eight years if the President we elect in November wins a second term.

The untimely death of Anton Scalia will call attention to the role the Presidential election will have on setting the direction of the Supreme Court for the next 20 years. Surely it will reemphasize the need by both the Republican and Democratic Parties to nominate “electable” candidates. Those candidates also need to have “long coattails” because the fight for control of the Senate in the November will also take center stage in the battle to control the nation’s highest court.

Until now the fringes of both parties have been dominating the nomination cycles with their anger and disenchantment. .......

Rest of article here: The Death of Justice Scalia Puts Presidential Race in a New Perspective

I just heard the Republican line on confirmation of a new Supreme Court Justice

"It is tradition not to confirm a Supreme Court Justice during a Presidential Election. The choice should be deferred to will of the people"

They obviously will do their level best to delay confirmation of nominees until after the general election.

The Supreme Court after the Upcoming Elections – An Analysis

When I wrote the blog post below on this situation in July of last year, I had no idea that this issue would become this prevalent this soon. I believed at the time that we would be dealing with retirements and/or deaths of the Supreme Court Justices during the next President's first term, or more certainly during his/her second term.

However, since I find it almost impossible to believe that the Republican controlled Senate will confirm President Obama's nominee if that person is a true progressive, I think that it is entirely likely that the first task of the next President will be to choose Justice Scalia's replacement.

Even if President Obama is successful in having his nominee confirmed, that is unlikely to be the end of the Supreme Court drama. Scalia at 80 was only the second oldest Justice on the Court. Ruth Bader Ginsburg will be 83 when the next President takes office and will be 91 if she remains on the court for the next eight years. Anthony Kennedy is also 80 and Stephen Breyer will be 78 by the time the next President takes the oath of office. It is entirely possible that one or more of the current Justices will be gone from the court in the next four years, and even more likely in the next eight.

This is why is so important that we choose the right nominee.

The following my analysis of the situation the next President will face:

The Supreme Court after the Upcoming Elections – An Analysis

With Antonin Scalia's death, God rest his soul, this is no longer fun and games.

This nomination race just turned extremely serious. the Republicans in the Senate will never let President Obama name Scalia's successor. The two oldest Justices still on the Court are progressives. Both have had health issues in the past and no one knows how long they will last. A Democrat must win the general election. The direction of the Supreme Court for the next twenty years hangs in the balance.

We can no longer count on improbable dreams coming true. We can no longer wish for on a socialist Revolution. We must win the Presidential election.

Recent Post NH State Poll Results

Most of the polling emphasized to date has been the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary polls, and polls of other states have flown under the radar. Now that Iowa and NH are in our rear view mirror, it time to focus on recent polling in the other states. Courtesy of Real.ClearPolitics.com:

Wednesday, February 10

Oklahoma Democratic Presidential Primary (The Oklahoman) Clinton 44, Sanders 28
Clinton +16

Monday, February 8

Arkansas Democratic Presidential Primary (Talk Business/Hendrix College) Clinton 57, Sanders 25
Clinton +32

Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary (FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell) Clinton 57, Sanders 28
Clinton +29

Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary (IMP/Target Insyght) Clinton 62, Sanders 30
Clinton +32

North Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (High Point) Clinton 55, Sanders 29
Clinton +26

New York Democratic Presidential Primary (Siena) Clinton 55, Sanders 34
Clinton +21

Friday, February 5


Georgia Democratic Presidential Primary (WSB-TV/Landmark 9) Clinton 63, Sanders 22
Clinton +41

Friday, January 29


Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary (FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell) Clinton 61, Sanders 34
Clinton +27

Thursday, January 28


South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (NBC/WSJ/Marist) Clinton 64, Sanders 27,
Clinton +37

Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary (Franklin & Marshall) Clinton 46, Sanders 29, O'Malley 2
Clinton +17

Wisconsin Democratic Presidential Primary (Marquette) Clinton 45, Sanders 43,
Clinton +2

Texas Democratic Presidential Primary (KTVT-CBS 11) Clinton 50, Sanders 16
Clinton +34

Sunday, January 24

South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary
CBS News/YouGov
Clinton 60, Sanders 38, O'Malley 0
Clinton +22

Minnesota Democratic Presidential Caucus (Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon) Clinton 59, Sanders 25,
Clinton +34

Friday, January 22

Oklahoma Democratic Presidential Primary (Sooner Poll/News 9/News on 6) Clinton 41, Sanders 16
Clinton +25

Wednesday, January 20


Florida Democratic Presidential Primary (Florida Atlantic University) Clinton 62, Sanders 26,
Clinton +36

North Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (PPP) Clinton 59, Sanders 26
Clinton +33

Tuesday, January 19

Maryland Democratic Presidential Primary (Gonzales Research) Clinton 40, Sanders 27,
Clinton +13




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