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CajunBlazer

CajunBlazer's Journal
CajunBlazer's Journal
February 20, 2016

Some on the GD-P board seem to be losing hope

But Bernie just said that he believes that he has "an excellent chance to win many of those (Super Tuesday) contests".

February 19, 2016

Iím Not Feeling the Bern

I cannot visualize Bernie Sanders as President of the United States, and I truly believe that a majority of American voters will feel as I do come election day. Bernie may have some good ideas and his goals have merit, but ideas and goals are not enough in and of themselves.

Many of those supporting Sanders are far to the left of the vast majority of those who will be casting votes next November. Whether we like it or not, the relatively small group of voters who will decide this election are in the political center or even slightly to the right of center and they are very suspicious of politicians they view as being too far to the right or to far to the left in their political views. These are not people given to extremes of any sort. Even the idea of a self identified socialist running for President will be a cause for concern for more than a few of them.

(snip)

The primary goal of any political party entering a national election is winning. All else has to take a back seat to that goal because the platforms and ideology of the party not in power will never see the light of day. The Republicans seem destined to nominate either a reality show star who has managed to insult every political group necessary to win the general election or a disruptive politician who is far too conservative to suit those who will decide which candidate will occupy the White House. The best hope of Trump or Cruz is for the Democrats to nominate someone who will disturb that critical faction of the American electorate as much as the most probable Republican candidates.

In addition, I fear for the future of the Democratic Party if Bernie Sanders were to win the nomination and the general election. As it has often been pointed out, the Republicans are certain to maintain their domination of the House and are likely to be able to prevent votes on any legislation in the Senate regardless of which party wins control of that body. (To over ride a threat of a filibuster in the Senate, 60 Senators are necessary bring a bill forward for a vote.) If Republican Congressmen currently view President Obama as the enemy, they would view Bernie, the socialist, as the Satan incarnate and make damn sure he accomplishes absolutely nothing.

Sanders is a crusty old politician not known for his stellar relations with his colleagues and he is certainly not one to compromise – his most ardent supporters view any compromise as a repudiation of their values. .......

Rest of article here: I’m Not Feeling the Bern

February 19, 2016

New (2/18) Nevada prediction from Nate Silver

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/nevada-democratic/

Chances of winning Nevada caucuses:

Clinton - 75%

Sanders - 25%

Better confidence with 3 recent polls.
February 19, 2016

New (2/18) Nevada prediction from Nate Silver

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/nevada-democratic/

Chances of winning Nevada caucuses:

Clinton - 75%

Sanders - 25%

Better confidence with 3 recent polls.
February 19, 2016

(Updated 2/18) Latest State Poll Results from RealClearPolitics.com

Thursday, February 18

Nevada Democratic Presidential Caucus (Gravis) Clinton 53, Sanders 47
Clinton +6

South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (Bloomberg) Clinton 53, Sanders 31
Clinton +22

South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (Monmouth) Clinton 59, Sanders 30
Clinton +29

South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (FOX News) Clinton 56, Sanders 28
Clinton +28

South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (ARG) Clinton 59, Sanders 33
Clinton +26

Wednesday, February 17

South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (ARG) Clinton 61, Sanders 31
Clinton +30

Nevada Democratic Presidential Caucus (CNN/ORC) Clinton 48, Sanders 47
Clinton +1


Tuesday, February 16

South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (CNN/ORC) Clinton 54, Sanders 38
Clinton +18

Virginia Democratic Presidential Primary (Christopher Newport U.) Clinton 52, Sanders 40
Clinton +12

South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (PPP) Clinton 54, Sanders 34
Clinton +21

Monday, February 15

South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (Gracis) Clinton 59, Sanders 41
Clinton +18

Sunday, February 14

South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (CBS/YouGov) Clinton 59, Sanders 40
Clinton +19

Saturday, February 13

South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (ARG) Clinton 65, Sanders 27
Clinton +38

Friday, February 12


Nevada Democratic Presidential Caucus (Target Point - Republican) Clinton 45, Sanders
Tie

Wednesday, February 10

Oklahoma Democratic Presidential Primary (The Oklahoman) Clinton 44, Sanders 28
Clinton +16

Monday, February 8

Arkansas Democratic Presidential Primary (Talk Business/Hendrix College) Clinton 57, Sanders 25
Clinton +32

Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary (FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell) Clinton 57, Sanders 28
Clinton +29

Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary (IMP/Target Insyght) Clinton 62, Sanders 30
Clinton +32

North Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (High Point) Clinton 55, Sanders 29
Clinton +26

New York Democratic Presidential Primary (Siena) Clinton 55, Sanders 34
Clinton +21

Friday, February 5


Georgia Democratic Presidential Primary (WSB-TV/Landmark 9) Clinton 63, Sanders 22
Clinton +41

Friday, January 29


Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary (FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell) Clinton 61, Sanders 34
Clinton +27

Thursday, January 28

South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (NBC/WSJ/Marist) Clinton 64, Sanders 27,
Clinton +37

Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary (Franklin & Marshall) Clinton 46, Sanders 29, O'Malley 2
Clinton +17

Wisconsin Democratic Presidential Primary (Marquette) Clinton 45, Sanders 43,
Clinton +2

Texas Democratic Presidential Primary (KTVT-CBS 11) Clinton 50, Sanders 16
Clinton +34

Sunday, January 24


South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary
CBS News/YouGov
Clinton 60, Sanders 38, O'Malley 0
Clinton +22

Minnesota Democratic Presidential Caucus (Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon) Clinton 59, Sanders 25,
Clinton +34

Friday, January 22


Oklahoma Democratic Presidential Primary (Sooner Poll/News 9/News on 6) Clinton 41, Sanders 16
Clinton +25

Wednesday, January 20

Florida Democratic Presidential Primary (Florida Atlantic University) Clinton 62, Sanders 26,
Clinton +36

North Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (PPP) Clinton 59, Sanders 26
Clinton +33

Tuesday, January 19

Maryland Democratic Presidential Primary (Gonzales Research) Clinton 40, Sanders 27,
Clinton +13

Wednesday, February 10

Oklahoma Democratic Presidential Primary (The Oklahoman) Clinton 44, Sanders 28
Clinton +16

Monday, February 8

Arkansas Democratic Presidential Primary (Talk Business/Hendrix College) Clinton 57, Sanders 25
Clinton +32

Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary (FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell) Clinton 57, Sanders 28
Clinton +29

Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary (IMP/Target Insyght) Clinton 62, Sanders 30
Clinton +32

North Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (High Point) Clinton 55, Sanders 29
Clinton +26

New York Democratic Presidential Primary (Siena) Clinton 55, Sanders 34
Clinton +21

Friday, February 5


Georgia Democratic Presidential Primary (WSB-TV/Landmark 9) Clinton 63, Sanders 22
Clinton +41

Friday, January 29


Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary (FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell) Clinton 61, Sanders 34
Clinton +27

Thursday, January 28


South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (NBC/WSJ/Marist) Clinton 64, Sanders 27,
Clinton +37

Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary (Franklin & Marshall) Clinton 46, Sanders 29, O'Malley 2
Clinton +17

Wisconsin Democratic Presidential Primary (Marquette) Clinton 45, Sanders 43,
Clinton +2

Texas Democratic Presidential Primary (KTVT-CBS 11) Clinton 50, Sanders 16
Clinton +34

Sunday, January 24

South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary
CBS News/YouGov
Clinton 60, Sanders 38, O'Malley 0
Clinton +22

Minnesota Democratic Presidential Caucus (Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon) Clinton 59, Sanders 25,
Clinton +34
February 19, 2016

(Updated 2/18) Latest State Poll Results from RealClearPolitics.com

Thursday, February 18

Nevada Democratic Presidential Caucus (Gravis) Clinton 53, Sanders 47
Clinton +6

South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (Bloomberg) Clinton 53, Sanders 31
Clinton +22

South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (Monmouth) Clinton 59, Sanders 30
Clinton +29

South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (FOX News) Clinton 56, Sanders 28
Clinton +28

South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (ARG) Clinton 59, Sanders 33
Clinton +26

Wednesday, February 17

South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (ARG) Clinton 61, Sanders 31
Clinton +30

Nevada Democratic Presidential Caucus (CNN/ORC) Clinton 48, Sanders 47
Clinton +1


Tuesday, February 16

South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (CNN/ORC) Clinton 54, Sanders 38
Clinton +18

Virginia Democratic Presidential Primary (Christopher Newport U.) Clinton 52, Sanders 40
Clinton +12

South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (PPP) Clinton 54, Sanders 34
Clinton +21

Monday, February 15

South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (Gracis) Clinton 59, Sanders 41
Clinton +18

Sunday, February 14

South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (CBS/YouGov) Clinton 59, Sanders 40
Clinton +19

Saturday, February 13

South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (ARG) Clinton 65, Sanders 27
Clinton +38

Friday, February 12


Nevada Democratic Presidential Caucus (Target Point - Republican) Clinton 45, Sanders
Tie

Wednesday, February 10

Oklahoma Democratic Presidential Primary (The Oklahoman) Clinton 44, Sanders 28
Clinton +16

Monday, February 8

Arkansas Democratic Presidential Primary (Talk Business/Hendrix College) Clinton 57, Sanders 25
Clinton +32

Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary (FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell) Clinton 57, Sanders 28
Clinton +29

Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary (IMP/Target Insyght) Clinton 62, Sanders 30
Clinton +32

North Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (High Point) Clinton 55, Sanders 29
Clinton +26

New York Democratic Presidential Primary (Siena) Clinton 55, Sanders 34
Clinton +21

Friday, February 5


Georgia Democratic Presidential Primary (WSB-TV/Landmark 9) Clinton 63, Sanders 22
Clinton +41

Friday, January 29


Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary (FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell) Clinton 61, Sanders 34
Clinton +27

Thursday, January 28

South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (NBC/WSJ/Marist) Clinton 64, Sanders 27,
Clinton +37

Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary (Franklin & Marshall) Clinton 46, Sanders 29, O'Malley 2
Clinton +17

Wisconsin Democratic Presidential Primary (Marquette) Clinton 45, Sanders 43,
Clinton +2

Texas Democratic Presidential Primary (KTVT-CBS 11) Clinton 50, Sanders 16
Clinton +34

Sunday, January 24


South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary
CBS News/YouGov
Clinton 60, Sanders 38, O'Malley 0
Clinton +22

Minnesota Democratic Presidential Caucus (Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon) Clinton 59, Sanders 25,
Clinton +34

Friday, January 22


Oklahoma Democratic Presidential Primary (Sooner Poll/News 9/News on 6) Clinton 41, Sanders 16
Clinton +25

Wednesday, January 20

Florida Democratic Presidential Primary (Florida Atlantic University) Clinton 62, Sanders 26,
Clinton +36

North Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (PPP) Clinton 59, Sanders 26
Clinton +33

Tuesday, January 19

Maryland Democratic Presidential Primary (Gonzales Research) Clinton 40, Sanders 27,
Clinton +13

Wednesday, February 10

Oklahoma Democratic Presidential Primary (The Oklahoman) Clinton 44, Sanders 28
Clinton +16

Monday, February 8

Arkansas Democratic Presidential Primary (Talk Business/Hendrix College) Clinton 57, Sanders 25
Clinton +32

Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary (FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell) Clinton 57, Sanders 28
Clinton +29

Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary (IMP/Target Insyght) Clinton 62, Sanders 30
Clinton +32

North Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (High Point) Clinton 55, Sanders 29
Clinton +26

New York Democratic Presidential Primary (Siena) Clinton 55, Sanders 34
Clinton +21

Friday, February 5


Georgia Democratic Presidential Primary (WSB-TV/Landmark 9) Clinton 63, Sanders 22
Clinton +41

Friday, January 29


Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary (FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell) Clinton 61, Sanders 34
Clinton +27

Thursday, January 28


South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (NBC/WSJ/Marist) Clinton 64, Sanders 27,
Clinton +37

Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary (Franklin & Marshall) Clinton 46, Sanders 29, O'Malley 2
Clinton +17

Wisconsin Democratic Presidential Primary (Marquette) Clinton 45, Sanders 43,
Clinton +2

Texas Democratic Presidential Primary (KTVT-CBS 11) Clinton 50, Sanders 16
Clinton +34

Sunday, January 24

South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary
CBS News/YouGov
Clinton 60, Sanders 38, O'Malley 0
Clinton +22

Minnesota Democratic Presidential Caucus (Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon) Clinton 59, Sanders 25,
Clinton +34
February 18, 2016

More of Nate Silver's Predictions

I looked though the FiveThirtyEight website for predictions on all of the upcoming caucus and primary states and, except for Nevada and South Carolina which I have already posted here, this is what I found (all projections in terms of chances of winning in that state):

Virginia
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/virginia-democratic/
Clinton: 98% - Sanders: 2%

Oklahoma
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/oklahoma-democratic/
Clinton: 81% - Sanders: 19%

Arkansas
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/arkansas-democratic/
Clinton: Greater than 99% - Sanders: Less than 1%

Michigan
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/michigan-democratic/
Clinton: 95% - Sanders: 5%

Most of the other states pages showed "insufficient polling data"

NOTE: If you have questions about which polls were used for a particular prediction, go to the website using the link provided for that prediction Scroll down and you will see a list of polls. Keep in mind that not all of the polls may have been used. Look in the column titled WEIGHT. Silver weights polls in his calculations (gives more emphasis to some polls than others) based on the past accuracy of the polling organization and the bias of their polls.

For example, for the Virginia prediction, the "Public Policy Polling" poll (weight -1.18) received a lot more weight than the "Christopher Newport University" (wieght - 0.11)and the other polls below them weren't used at all in Silver's prediction calculations - notice that they all have 0.00 for the weight. That is almost certainly that is because the are too old to be valid.

February 18, 2016

More of Nate Silver's Projections

I looked though the FiveThirtyEight website for predictions on all of the upcoming caucus and primary states and, except for Nevada and South Carolina which I have already posted here, this is what I found (all projections in terms of chances of winning in that state:

Virginia
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/virginia-democratic/
Clinton: 98% - Sanders: 2%

Oklahoma
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/oklahoma-democratic/
Clinton: 81% - Sanders: 19%

Arkansas
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/arkansas-democratic/
Clinton: Greater than 99% - Sanders: Less than 1%

Michigan
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/michigan-democratic/
Clinton: 95% - Sanders: 5%

Most of the other states pages showed "insufficient polling data"

NOTE: If you have questions about which polls were used for a particular prediction, go to the website using the link provided for that prediction Scroll down and you will see a list of polls. Keep in mind that not all of the polls may have been used. Look in the column titled WEIGHT. Silver weights polls in his calculations (gives more emphasis to some polls than others) based on the past accuracy of the polling organization and the bias of their polls.

For example, for the Virginia prediction, the "Public Policy Polling" poll (weight -1.18) received a lot more weight than the "Christopher Newport University" (wieght - 0.11)and the other polls below them weren't used at all in Silver's prediction calculations - notice that they all have 0.00 for the weight. That is almost certainly that is because the are too old to be valid.

February 17, 2016

Nate Silver's new predictions for Nevada Caucus & SC Primary

FiveThirtyEight 2016 Primary Forecast Nevada

Hillary Clinton has a 69% chance of winning the Nevada caucuses.

Bernie Sanders has a 31% chance of winning the Nevada caucuses


FiveThirtyEight 2016 Primary Forecast Nevada

Hillary Clinton has a 99% chance of winning the South Carolina primary

Bernie Sanders has a 1% chance of winning the South Carolina primary

February 17, 2016

Nate Silver's new predictions for Nevada Caucus

FiveThirtyEight 2016 Primary Forecast Nevada

Hillary Clinton has a 69% chance of winning the Nevada caucuses.

Bernie Sanders has a 31% chance of winning the Nevada caucuses.


EDIT: See below - I have included Silver's predictions for South Carolina in reply below

Profile Information

Gender: Male
Hometown: Alabama
Home country: USA
Member since: Sat Jun 13, 2015, 05:35 PM
Number of posts: 5,648
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