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Gender: Male
Hometown: Alabama
Home country: USA
Member since: Sat Jun 13, 2015, 05:35 PM
Number of posts: 5,648

Journal Archives

President Obama puts his thumb of the scale and favors Hillary

CNN showed clips from an interview which President Obama gave to Politico and, while he certainly didn't endorse any candidate in the Democratic primary race, his remarks definitely showed a preference for Hillary Clinton.

This might have a big influence in the upcoming caucus and primary battles. The president currently has a 90 percent favorability rating among Democrats; he’s especially popular among African-Americans, a big part of Democratic electorate in South Carolina’s and the many states in the so called Southeaster Conference primaries set for March 1st.

I will try to find some direct quotes from the interview and post them when they become available.

Sanders Has Caught Up with Clinton in Iowa? Possible but Not Likely

Sanders Has Caught Up with Clinton in Ohio? Possible but Not Likely

A new CNN/ORC poll of the probable Democratic Caucus goers in Iowa had TV talking heads all excited and Bernie Sanders supporters all a twitter (literally) because it indicated that good ole Bernie had moved from 8 points behind Hillary Clinton to 8 points ahead, almost over night. Suddenly it appeared that Sanders had a real possibility if posting a clean sweep in Iowa and New Hampshire providing him much needed momentum going into Nevada and South Carolina and the so called Southeaster Conference primaries March 1st.

However, if you listened closely to the background conversations you would have noticed that both campaigns were downplaying that poll as an outlier and with good reason. Take a look at the table below from realclearpolitics.com showing the most recent Iowa polls and follow along. (The link to the poll table only available on original article - see link below.))

First note the numbers for each of the eight polls in the column, “Sample”. That data indicates the numbers of interviews use in the polls as samples. (The letters “LV” indicates that all the polls were canvassed using live telephone interviews rather than robotic calls.) Note 4 of the 5 polls that show Hillary ahead were based on more than 500 interviews and the 5th was based on 461 interviews. Then note that the recent CNN/ONC poll showing Sanders ahead by 8 points was conducted with only 280 interviews. All other factors being equal, polls based on more interviews are always considered more accurate.

Then notice three latest polls, including the CNN/ORC poll. That poll and the other two (KBR and Loras College) were all canvassed during the same time frame – 1/13-1/20........

Rest of article here: Sanders Has Caught Up with Clinton in Ohio? Possible but Not Likely

I posted this on the Primary board - it's wasted there

No use talking to the Sanders folks

They are true believers who are more interested in ideals than common sense. They are more interested in reaching for the moon than getting incremental things done to further the cause. The are more interested having a totally ineffective Bernie Sanders in the White House, who talks a good game, but will get nothing done then someone who deal with the Republicans' BS and can take small steps forward. They seem to have little understanding of how government actually works.

Worse yet they seem to be a small minority of mostly decently well off white people who isolated in their communities, out of touch how the average American thinks, and who believe that everyone has their frame of reference. They believe that their lovable but angry little socialist will be embraced by the centralists in this country who decide Presidential elections. They don't understand or simply don't care that their little crusade could hand the White House, both Houses of Congress and the Supreme Court to the Republicans.

They believe that it is more important to vote their convictions than to win. Having a discussion with them is a waste of time and energy.

Our problem is that we have let the Sanders group corner all of the enthusium

I guess that's normal. The True Believers on both the far left and the far right are always the most zealous and enthusiastic. But we cannot let our far left wing zealots take over our party without a fight.

I guess I lied to myself about no longer fighting the good fight in the Primaries forum.

I'll be damned if I am stand by an let the far left wing of my party put us in the position of losing the Presidency and both houses of Congress plus the opportunity to set the direction of the Supreme Court for the next 20 years so they can stand on their principles and nominate the unelectable.

National and State polls through Super Tuesday (from RealClearPolitics.com)

Some of the polls for the Super Tuesday states are rather old and for others there is no good polling data. However, what is available will give you an idea what the candidates face.


1/4-1/18 Clinton 51.2 Sanders 38.0 O'Malley 2.2
Clinton +13.2

Monday, February 1

Iowa (7 polls) 52 Delegates

1/2-1/19 Clinton 47.0 Sanders 42.3 O'Malley 5.4
Clinton +4.7

Tuesday, February 9

New Hampshire (5 polls) 32 Delegates

1/4-1/18 Sanders 51.6 Clinton 39.0 O'Malley 2.8
Sanders +12.6

Saturday, February 20

Nevada caucus (2 polls) 43 Delegates

12/5-12/17 Clinton 66.0 Sanders 26.0 O'Malley 2.5
Clinton +40.0

Saturday, February 27

South Carolina (2 polls) 50 delegates

10/3-12/27 Clinton 50.0 Sanders 30.5 O'Malley 0.5
Clinton +19.5

Tuesday, March 1

Colorado caucus (1 Poll) 70 Delegates

11/11-11/15 Clinton 55 Sanders 27 O'Malley 2
Clinton +28

Georgia (3 polls) 116 Delegates

8/5-10/26 Clinton 60.0 Sanders 17.0 O'Malle 1.7
Clinton +43.0

Massachusetts (3 polls) 116 Delegates

10/16-11/22 Clinton 56.5 Sanders 27.0 O'Malley 3.0
Clinton +29.5

Oklahoma (2 polls ) 42 Delegates

10/19-11/15 Clinton 38.5 Sanders 16.5 O'Malley 1.5
Clinton +22.0

Tennessee (1 Poll) 76 Delegates

11/11-11/23 Clinton 48 Sanders 28 O'Malley 3
Clinton +20

Texas (3 polls) 252 Delegates

9/8-11/8 Clinton 52.0 Sanders 21.3 O'Malley 1.3
Clinton +30.7

Virgina (1 Poll) 110 Delegates

11/4-11/9 Clinton 63 Sanders 27 O'Malley 5
Clinton +36

Alabama () 60 Delegates

(no polls yet)

Alaska Caucus ( ) 28 Delegates

(no polls yet)

American Samoa caucus ( ) 10 Delegates

(no polls yet)

Arkansas ( ) 37 Delegates

(No current polls)

Minnesota caucus ( ) 93 Delegates

(no current polls)

Vermont 26 Delegates

(no polls yet)

Latest Iowa and New Hampshire Democratic polls from RealClearPolitics.com

Latest Iowa Democratic caucus polls and average:

RCP Average 1/2-1/19 Clinton 47.0 Sanders 42.3 O'Malley 5.4
Clinton +4.7

KBUR 1/18 - 1/19 Clinton 48 Sanders 39 O'Malley 7
Clinton +9

DM Reg/Bloomb 1/7 - 1/10 Clinton 42 Sanders 40 O'Malley 4
Clinton +2

Gravis 1/11 - 1/12 Clinton 57 Sanders 36 O'Malley 7
Clinton +21

PPP (D) 1/8 - 1/10 Clinton 46 Sanders 40 O'Malley 8
Clinton +6

ARG 1/6 - 1/10 Clinton 44 Sanders 47 O'Malley 3
Sanders +3

Quinnipiac 1/5 - 1/10 Clinton 44 Sanders 49 O'Malley 4
Sanders +5

NBC/WSJ/Marist 1/2 - 1/7 Clinton 48 Sanders 45 O'Malley 5
Clinton +3

Latest New Hampshire Democratic primary polls and average:

RCP Average 1/4-1/18 Sanders 51.6 Clinton 39.0 O'Malley2.8
Sanders +12.6

CNN/WMUR 1/13-1/18 Sanders 60 Clinton 33 O'Mally 1
Sanders +27

ARG 1/15-1/18 Sanders 49 Clinton 43 O'Malley 3
Sanders +6

Gravis 1/15-1/18 Sanders 46 Clinton 43 O'Malley 2
Sanders +3

Monmouth 1/7-1/10 Sanders 53 Clinton 39 O'Malley 5
Sanders +14

FOX News 1/4-1/7 Sanders 50 Clinton 37 O'Malley 3
Sanders +13

(Updated 1/21/16) Latest Democratic nomination poll results - courtesy of RealClearPolitics.com

Thursday, 1/21/16

Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (KBUR) Clinton 48, Sanders 39, O'Malley 7
Clinton +9

Wednesday, 1/20/16

New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary (Gravis) Sanders 46, Clinton 43, O'Malley 2
Sanders +3

Florida Democratic Presidential Primary (Florida Atlantic University) Clinton 62, Sanders 26, O'Malley 4
Clinton +36

North Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (PPP) Clinton 59, Sanders 26, O'Malley 5
Clinton +33

Tuesday, 1/19/16

2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination (Monmouth) Clinton 52, Sanders 37, O'Malley 2
Clinton +15

New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary (CNN/WMUR) Sanders 60, Clinton 33, O'Malley 1
Sanders +27

New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary (ARG) Sanders 49, Clinton 43, O'Malley 3
Sanders +6

Maryland Democratic Presidential Primary (Gonzales Research) Clinton 40, Sanders 27, O'Malley 5
Clinton +13

Monday, 1/18/16

(No new Democratic primary polls)

Sunday, 1/17/16

2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination (NBC News/Wall St. Jrl) Clinton 59, Sanders 34, O'Malley 2
Clinton +25

Utah Democratic Presidential Caucus (Salt Lake Tribune/SurveyUSA) Clinton 50, Sanders 40, O'Malley 2
Clinton +10

(No new Democratic primary polls Saturday, 1/16/16 or Friday 1/15/16)

Thursday, 1/14/16:

Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (DM Register/Bloomberg) Clinton 42, Sanders 40, O'Malley 4
Clinton +2

Wednesday, 1/13/16

Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (Gravis) Clinton 57, Sanders 36, O'Malley 7
Clinton +21

Tuesday, 1/12/16

Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (Quinnipiac) Clinton 44, Sanders 49, O'Malley 4
Sanders +5

Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (PPP) Clinton 46, Sanders 40, O'Malley 8
Clinton +6

New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary (Monmouth) Sanders 53, Clinton 39, O'Malley 5
Sanders +14

Monday, 1/11/16

2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination (IBD/TIPP) Clinton 43, Sanders 39, O'Malley 2
Clinton +4

Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (ARG) Clinton 44, Sanders 47, O'Malley 3
Sanders +3

New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary (ARG) Sanders 47, Clinton 44, O'Malley 3
Sanders +3

Sunday, 1/10/16

Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (NBC/WSJ/Marist) Clinton 48, Sanders 45, O'Malley 5
Clinton +3

New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary (NBC/WSJ/Marist) Sanders 50, Clinton 46, O'Malley 1
Sanders +4

Saturday, 1/9/16

(No new Democratic primary polls)

Friday, 1/8/16

2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination (FOX News) Clinton 54, Sanders 39, O'Malley 3
Clinton +15

New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary (FOX News) Sanders 50, Clinton 37, O'Malley 3
Sanders +13

Thursday, 1/7/16

(No new Democratic primary polls)

Wednesday, 1/6/16

New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary (PPP) Sanders 44, Clinton 47, O'Malley 3
Clinton +3

California Democratic Presidential Primary (Field) Clinton 46, Sanders 35, O'Malley 1
Clinton +11

(No new Democratic primary polls on 12/31/15 through 1/5/16)

The devil made me do it

Just last night I said that I was through with posting on the Primaries board, but I couldn't resist tweaking the Bernie people when I can across some articles in the local paper about Berinie's rally in Birmingham.

Here the link to my post on the Primary board: Sanders' Birmingham Rally throws Homeless out in the cold on coldest night of winter

Sanders' Birmingham Rally throws Homeless out in the cold on coldest night of winter

The title of this post is a bit misleading, but it got your attention, right? While technically correct, there is more to the story as you will see when you read the articles linked below which appeared in the Birmingham News about Bernies' visit and rally here in Birmingham.

The first article appeared above fold on the front page on the paper copy of the newspaper and was entitled: Homeless Get Cold Shoulder: Bernie Sanders rally, SCLC banquet close Boutwell Auditorium as warming station on coldest night of winter

The second article appeared on Page 7 of the paper edition.

On bitterly cold night, Birmingham's homeless warming station used for Sanders rally

Bernie Sanders in Birmingham: Alabamians should 'stop voting against your best interest

The Fractured State of the GOP

Donald Trump and Ted Cruz occupy the two top positions in just about every Republican Presidential nomination poll. Between them they currently own over 50% of the potential Republican primary votes. When you add in the support for the Carson and Fiorina, the anti-establishment candidates account for almost two thirds of the votes in the Republican primaries. The revolt of the Republican rank and file against their establishment masters is in full swing. Is the current Republican nomination race the vehicle which will cause a permanent schism in the GOP?


In my opinion the better question is “Why did this fracture line take so long to manifest itself?” When you stop to consider the unlikely union of the two main segments of the Republican Party, it is really amazing it held together as long as it did. On one hand we have the mainly fiscal conservatives or establishment Republicans who are mostly concerned with protecting big corporations, business owners and the one percent who fund Republican campaigns. On the other hand we have blue collar workers and Southern rednecks who are mostly concerned with imposing their social and religious views on others and ostracizing anyone who does not look like them, talk like them, or worship like them.


The problems began when the establishment Republicans began to realize that votes of social conservatives alone will no longer be adequate to win future national elections. They began to understand that if their party is to stay relevant nationally, they will have to build a bigger Republican tent. Due to demographic shifts in the U.S. voter population, the establishment Republicans decided that they will have to attract more people of color, Hispanics, and single women – all rapidly growing voter groups. However, the policy changes advocated by establishment Republicans to attract those voters runs counter the intolerance and religious prejudices of their socially conservative base.


The entire article can be accessed here: The Fractured State of the GOP

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