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drray23's Journal
drray23's Journal
October 30, 2020

what are you doing the days after nov 3rd?

I think I am going to take time off from work. Either I will be celebrating and too hyped to concentrate at work or enraged and plotting my exhile to europe.

October 30, 2020

Texas looks like a real possibility.

Given that nearly 9 millions votes were cast and they expect only 1 or 2 millions more on election day, reaching 11 millions total.

If the democrats had the advantage during early voting (lots of young people voted, many first time voters. etc..) it will be very hard for Trump to make that up on election day.

for example, say it was 55-45 on early ballots and 9/11 =80 percent already voted then on election day, in order to reach 50% +1 vote, Joe Biden would only need

(0.5-0.8*0.55)/(1-0.8)=27.5 percent to make it above 50 percent and win.

Even with 51/49 early vote , Biden would only need 45 % on election day.

Roughly, each early vote is worth 4 times the nov 3rd vote (if early vote proportion is 80 %).

October 29, 2020

its hilarious how pundits at the boards are twisting themselves

into a pretzel trying to come up with scenarios for Trump to win. True on both cnn and msnbc. instead of objectively analysing the race and maybe discuss why they think polls are innacurate they are like lets give Trump this state and that one for the sake of argument and then maybe one congressional district there. oh look, thats 270.

its fine to discuss possible paths but i feel they are not putting into context how likely or not some of these are. They are presented on the same footing as the other more probable ones and result in people freaking out.

October 9, 2020

effect of early votes on election day.

So I did the math. Here is the formula.

BV = BV1xEV + (1-EV)xBV2
where BV is Biden's fraction of votes ( we want 0.5 or more)
BV1 is Biden's fraction for early votes
BV2 is Biden's fraction for election day votes
EV is fraction of early votes.

So for example, 20 percent of early votes ( EV=0.2)
if Biden wins early vote by 2/3( as it was reported) , BV1=0.66.

it follows than to reach BV=0.5 he would only need

BV2=(0.5-.2×0.66)/(1-0.2) = 0.458 on election day.
In other words Trump would need to win 54-46 on election day.

Of course its just capturing the effect of early votes , not the electoral college.

You can however apply this reasoning to many states . Some have a huge percentage of vote by mail so its an interesting thing.

on EDIT:
Right now, 6 millions early votes have been cast which already is good for one full percentage point on election day.

Hopefully we keep banking them as much as possible.

October 8, 2020

Just received my copy of undaunted.

John Brennan's book. Very interesting so far. Did you know that the same day he had to go to Trump tower to brief him he later attended his father funeral ? The description of that meeting is fascinating. Trump was not acting as an idiot, rather he was attentive and asking probing questions to try to find the source of the human intelligence. As Brennan put it, exactly like a foreign intelligence actor would do.

October 8, 2020

Nicole Wallace has an interesting choice of words for Pence .

Limp, Flaccid... If she playing the "mother" angle ? 😆😆

October 8, 2020

those moderators have no courage.

If I was moderating I would not meekly say "Thank you Mr vice president" to stop him , I would raise my voice until he stops yelling over him if I have to.

October 8, 2020

I found a way to release my energy when watching.

Instead of yelling at the TV every time Pence lies, I am pacing in the room and getting my step count in.

October 8, 2020

Hilarious. Page is even less in control than Wallace.

Sure there is no outrageous behavior like Trump did but she is unable to steer anybody towards answering questions.

October 7, 2020

idiot. Melber is trying to pit Liz Warren against Joe and Kamala

by playing clips from the primary. Needless to say she did not take the bait and turned it around on a criticism of Trump and unity behind Biden.

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Gender: Male
Hometown: virginia
Member since: Sun Jun 1, 2014, 05:32 PM
Number of posts: 7,539

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