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Gender: Male
Hometown: virginia
Member since: Sun Jun 1, 2014, 06:32 PM
Number of posts: 4,676

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effect of early votes on election day.

So I did the math. Here is the formula.

BV = BV1xEV + (1-EV)xBV2
where BV is Biden's fraction of votes ( we want 0.5 or more)
BV1 is Biden's fraction for early votes
BV2 is Biden's fraction for election day votes
EV is fraction of early votes.

So for example, 20 percent of early votes ( EV=0.2)
if Biden wins early vote by 2/3( as it was reported) , BV1=0.66.

it follows than to reach BV=0.5 he would only need

BV2=(0.5-.20.66)/(1-0.2) = 0.458 on election day.
In other words Trump would need to win 54-46 on election day.

Of course its just capturing the effect of early votes , not the electoral college.

You can however apply this reasoning to many states . Some have a huge percentage of vote by mail so its an interesting thing.

on EDIT:
Right now, 6 millions early votes have been cast which already is good for one full percentage point on election day.

Hopefully we keep banking them as much as possible.

Just received my copy of undaunted.

John Brennan's book. Very interesting so far. Did you know that the same day he had to go to Trump tower to brief him he later attended his father funeral ? The description of that meeting is fascinating. Trump was not acting as an idiot, rather he was attentive and asking probing questions to try to find the source of the human intelligence. As Brennan put it, exactly like a foreign intelligence actor would do.

Nicole Wallace has an interesting choice of words for Pence .

Limp, Flaccid... If she playing the "mother" angle ? 😆😆

those moderators have no courage.

If I was moderating I would not meekly say "Thank you Mr vice president" to stop him , I would raise my voice until he stops yelling over him if I have to.

I found a way to release my energy when watching.

Instead of yelling at the TV every time Pence lies, I am pacing in the room and getting my step count in.

Hilarious. Page is even less in control than Wallace.

Sure there is no outrageous behavior like Trump did but she is unable to steer anybody towards answering questions.

idiot. Melber is trying to pit Liz Warren against Joe and Kamala

by playing clips from the primary. Needless to say she did not take the bait and turned it around on a criticism of Trump and unity behind Biden.

Its an open question whether or not Trump leaves WR today.

I am thinking he is not. They cancelled the press conference after having driven the pool to WR. There are reports Don Jr. thinks his father is acting erratically and needs an intervention ( as an aside, I wonder how he can tell when Trump Sr acts erratically ),Mc Enamy testing positive and we may have Barr as well. Its all falling apart.

its clear trump is in bad shape.

if he was not, they would show videos and pictures of him working from Walter Reed. He would be tweeting bragging how its no big deal and commenting on fox news coverage.

so that update from the white house dr was as expected.

no useful information . Drs in the background who acted as poted plants even thought they are probably more competent than the white house dr.
Evasive answers about whether or not Trump had been on oxygen tripping over when the diagnostic was given.
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