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Algernon Moncrieff

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Member since: Sun Apr 20, 2014, 12:49 AM
Number of posts: 5,099

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Do Republican Women Support Kavanaugh?


...(W)e found that results so far don’t show a reliable trend among GOP women’s views of Kavanaugh. Rather, there is quite a bit of noise among the three polls we looked at, which could partly be attributable to the larger margin of error attached to any results pulled from a subset of a poll. While the Politico/Morning Consult poll found that Kavanaugh’s net support among Republican women had dropped by 18 points, HuffPost/YouGov found a 12-point net gain among that same group, and YouGov/Economist found a smaller net gain of 2 points.

So what do we make of this? There are a number of reasons polls can vary significantly, including the technique used to contact respondents, the sample size, how the questions are worded and when the poll is taken. The Morning Consult polls had a fairly small sample size of Republican women,2 as did the other polls we assessed. This is common when surveying a subset of a population, but it can mean that, as we mentioned, the margin of error is somewhat larger for these groups than it is for the full sample.3 Another complicating factor is that the Morning Consult polls were being conducted while new allegations of Kavanaugh’s sexual misconduct were still emerging. As Jeff Cartwright, a managing director at Morning Consult, told us, “The thing about our poll is that it was coming out of the field just as that New Yorker story,” in which a college classmate accused Kavanaugh of shoving his penis in her face, “went up on Sunday, so it doesn’t even take that into account right now.” This means Kavanaugh’s support among conservative women could now be much worse (or much better) than these polls show. It’s still too early to tell.

That said, there is evidence that Kavanaugh’s public support declined this week, with recent polls showing his net approval rating anywhere between -3 and -6 points. Kavanaugh is a historically unpopular Supreme Court nominee, but if we go back to the beginning of July when polls first started asking about his confirmation, we can see that his net approval rating became increasingly negative in the days after the first allegations of sexual misconduct became public.

Posted by Algernon Moncrieff | Sat Sep 29, 2018, 09:00 AM (4 replies)

Think about what to do next - then do something!

Over the weekend, I posted "Do This Now!", and I told everyone to check their registration status.

So I have a unique idea for a thread. It may sink like a stone, but what the Hell.

I want everyone who reads this to respond with a link to help a Democratic candidate you want to support. It doesn't have to be in your state - maybe you want to support Claire McCaskill; maybe Ocascio-Cortez speaks to you; maybe you love Beto; maybe you despise Rick Scott. Answer with a link and make your case.

Then do something. If one of more of these candidates in the thread grabs your support, take some concrete action. Send $5; go to a canvass event; phone bank for an hour.

So I'll start with a pick only Omaha Steve will understand. Jane Skinner for Nebraska Auditor.


The current Nebraska Auditor has made a habit of long, beer-filled lunches and it's unclear if he returns to work afterward or if he shows up on Friday.

Jane has these better ideas:

Innovation: I want to bring my experience from working at the library to the auditor's office. From a more user-friendly website to ensuring staff is up-to-date on regulations, an office that prioritizes innovation will ensure best service to the citizens and ultimately save taxpayer money.

Integrity: The office of auditor needs to be independent from the political whims of the governor, and from petty partisanship. Communication with the public also needs to be increased, both through traditional methods such as press releases, and newer means like social media. Transparency will increase accountability.
Posted by Algernon Moncrieff | Tue Sep 25, 2018, 02:07 AM (2 replies)

Do this now!


At Vote.org, you can:

- Register to Vote
- Check your registration status (everyone should do this)
- Find your polling place (classic voter suppression tactic is to move precincts to lower turnout)
- Get an absentee ballot (especially if you are a student away from home or you travel a lot for work or you just like the convenience of absentee voting).
- Get election day reminders

I would also Google to see if your state has ID requirements if you plan to go to the polls. If so, get your ID in order.
Posted by Algernon Moncrieff | Sun Sep 23, 2018, 02:24 PM (20 replies)

What happened with polygraphing the White House staff to find the op-ed writer?

Who did it turn out to be and what happened to that person?
Posted by Algernon Moncrieff | Sun Sep 23, 2018, 11:12 AM (6 replies)

Question: If Kavanaugh withdrew on 9/24, could Amy Barrett be confirmed before the midterms?

I'm thinking "no" but I'd be curious to hear opinions.

I'm supposing Barrett would be the next choice, since she is both just as conservative as Kavanaugh and the sense that her gender would make her a foolproof selection.
Posted by Algernon Moncrieff | Sun Sep 23, 2018, 10:12 AM (29 replies)

What is the Best Brat Pack movie? (Bonus Question: Who the Hell constitutes the Brat Pack?)


Per Wikipedia, this is the consensus Brat Pack membership

Emilio Estevez
Anthony Michael Hall
Rob Lowe
Andrew McCarthy
Demi Moore
Judd Nelson
Molly Ringwald
Ally Sheedy

I'm not sure why Mare Winningham, James Spader and Robert Downy, Jr. don't make that cut, or why "Weird Science" doesn't appear on their list of Brat Pack movies, but there it is.
Posted by Algernon Moncrieff | Tue Sep 18, 2018, 12:50 AM (7 replies)

Donald Trump's swipe at Ben Jealous hands Democrat a chance to link Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan to pre

Baltimore Sun

“In Maryland, the Democrat candidate for governor wants to give illegal aliens free college tuition courtesy of the American taxpayer,” Trump said. “Come on in, free college.”

The crowd booed. But the Jealous campaign on Friday cheered, seizing on the spotlight by issuing a statement and holding a conference call with fellow Democrats to try to tie Republican Gov. Larry Hogan to Trump.

Trump’s words were an apparent swipe at Jealous' proposal to offer free tuition to community college students, without excluding Maryland residents who were brought to the United States without authorization to stay as young children — a group known as Dreamers. Jealous is not proposing free tuition for more recent arrivals.

For Jealous, whose weak fundraising has stymied his ability to counter a barrage of ads from Hogan and the Republican Governors Association, Trump’s attack came as free advertising. While Trump’s line went over with the crowd in red Montana, polls show the Republican president is deeply unpopular in Maryland.

My opinion: The party establishment in Maryland has offered a shameful lack of support to Ben Jealous.
Posted by Algernon Moncrieff | Mon Sep 10, 2018, 02:00 PM (2 replies)

From John K Delaney's Facebook Page

"Better is good. I used to have to tell my young staff this all the time in the White House. Better is good. That’s the history of progress in this country. Not perfect, better. The civil rights act didn’t end racism, but it made things better. Social security didn’t eliminate all poverty for seniors, but it made things better for millions of people. Do not let people tell you the fight’s not worth it because you won’t get everything that you want."

Obama's speech on Friday was inspirational in many ways but what really stuck out was his defense of principled compromise. We must work together to get things done for the American people, it's the only way to put lasting change into action.

Posted by Algernon Moncrieff | Sun Sep 9, 2018, 03:48 PM (3 replies)

Your favorite Burt Reynolds movie is

Posted by Algernon Moncrieff | Thu Sep 6, 2018, 06:25 PM (14 replies)

Trump demands NYT turn anonymous source over to government 'for National Security purposes'

The Hill

President Trump on Wednesday lashed out at The New York Times in a tweet over the paper’s publishing an op-ed by an anonymous Trump administration official.

Hours after the piece was published, Trump questioned whether the official exists and demanded that the paper turn the author over to the government, saying it is a national security issue.

“Does the so-called “Senior Administration Official” really exist, or is it just the Failing New York Times with another phony source?” he tweeted. “If the GUTLESS anonymous person does indeed exist, the Times must, for National Security purposes, turn him/her over to government at once!”

Trump also appeared to question earlier Wednesday whether the official had committed “treason” by writing the piece.
Posted by Algernon Moncrieff | Thu Sep 6, 2018, 02:23 AM (12 replies)
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