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Algernon Moncrieff

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Member since: Sun Apr 20, 2014, 12:49 AM
Number of posts: 5,092

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Election Update: The Polls Disagree, And That’s OK

Nate Silver: Five Thirty Eight

Pretty much everyone has an incentive to push the narrative that the presidential race is tightening. The television networks would like for you to keep tuning in to their horse-race coverage. Hillary Clinton’s campaign would like for you to turn out to vote, instead of getting complacent. Donald Trump’s campaign would like you to know that its candidate still has a chance.

But what do the polls say? The race probably is tightening — but perhaps not as much as the hype on the cable networks would imply. In our polls-only forecast, Trump has narrowed Clinton’s lead in the popular vote to roughly 6 percentage points from 7 points a week ago, and his chances of winning have ticked up to 17 percent from 13 percent. In our polls-plus forecast, Trump’s chances are up to 19 percent from 16 percent. Because of the high level of uncertainty in the race, we can’t say the door is closed on a narrow Trump victory. And we’re certainly a week or two removed from the period when every poll brought good news for Clinton: Plenty of polls now show negative trend lines for her (in addition to others that show a positive trend). But the race hasn’t fundamentally changed all that much, and Clinton remains in a strong position.

The data, however, offers a lot of opportunities for cherry-picking, both because there are a lot of polls and because they don’t agree all that much with one another. That’s especially true of national polls.1

Recent national surveys show everything from a 14-percentage-point Clinton lead to a 1-point lead for Trump. On average, that works out to a Clinton lead of 5 to 6 points — but there’s a lot of variation.
Posted by Algernon Moncrieff | Thu Oct 27, 2016, 07:20 PM (3 replies)

Just Sent Mail to Find Out About Distant Relatives

I've been researching my family for about three years now (and just found this group). So Hi!!

There are different styles and goals in family research. Some want to find links to George Washington, join the DAR, find a Mayflower passenger. Some want to see how far back they can get. My style has been to find closet doors; throw the doors of the closets open; and to study the skeletons within. This makes for good story telling and is interesting, but does not always make one popular ("why would you tell people about that?".

So a distant cousin murdered his wife in 1908. I'm reaching out to people who would have been her grand nieces/nephews to learn if they heard any stories over the years that weren't in the papers. The couple had an infant son at the time of the murder. He died in the early 90s. The son accidentally killed someone sixty years after his parent's murder. So I'm also reaching out to a survivor of the accident by mail to see what he can tell me, as the newspaper accounts lack detail.

I'm not certain that I will get answers, but I won't know if I don't ask. I've learned from another investigations into the past that a person can get pretty hacked off about events that took place over 100 years ago, and it was useful to remember, and to remind that person to remember, that neither one of us had anything to do with those events. History is what it is.

Have any of you dealt with finding a previously unknown marriage, or finding distant relatives involved in crimes? How did that make you feel, and how did relatives react when you revealed this information.
Posted by Algernon Moncrieff | Thu Oct 27, 2016, 04:15 PM (9 replies)

Robert Reich on Facebook

This election isn't over until it's over. Today's Investor’s Business Daily tracking poll -- which predicted the outcome of the 2004, 2008 and 2012 elections more closely than rival surveys -- gives Donald Trump a 2-point lead over Hillary Clinton when Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein are thrown into the mix. The same poll gives Trump a 1-point edge in a head-to-head contest with Hillary. The Los Angeles Times/University of Southern California daily tracking poll has the two major candidates tied a 44 percent apiece for the week. As of today, they're separated by just 0.3 point, with Trump retaining the edge.

ABC, on the other hand, gives Hillary a 12-point lead.

Take nothing for granted. Vote, and get others to as well. Our fates depend on it.

What do you think?
Posted by Algernon Moncrieff | Sun Oct 23, 2016, 09:25 PM (7 replies)

Dust off your crystal balls, DU: What will Reince Priebus be doing on November 9th?

My uneducated guess is filing for unemployment and sending out resumes.
Posted by Algernon Moncrieff | Thu Oct 20, 2016, 01:30 AM (17 replies)

Kos: Trump is hoping red shirts intimidate voters in minority communities

Trump hopes that his red shirts will keep numbers down in districts where minorities turn out for Democrats. However, if that doesn’t work, plan B is already clear.

“Should Hillary get ‘elected’ she is immediately delegitimized,” said California RNC Committeeman Shawn Steel in an email. “The 1% of Wall Street Bankers, Clinton Machine and [mainstream media] including your employer, Politico, is part of a massive Left Wing Conspiracy to rig this election.”

If Trump’s goon squads can scare enough voters away from the polls, it’s all good. If not, then Hillary is “delegitimized” because everything was rigged.

It’s a can’t-lose plan. Except for all the losing.

Posted by Algernon Moncrieff | Wed Oct 19, 2016, 11:52 AM (24 replies)

How do you respond to this false equivalency: BLM is a hate group just like the KKK

Apparently my neighbor feels that African Americans engaged in protest against being shot by cops is just like a group that has engaged in systematic violence and murder for over 150 years.
Posted by Algernon Moncrieff | Mon Oct 17, 2016, 03:01 PM (23 replies)

Ranking the Pixar Movies

Every Pixar Movie Ranked from Worst to Best

16. Cars 2
15. Brave
14. the Good Dinosaur


So, Lounge .. how do you rank the Pixar feature film cannon? To refresh your memory, here is the list in order of release (newest to oldest)

Finding Dory 2016
Good Dinosaur, The 2015
Inside Out 2015
Monsters University 2013
Brave 2012
Cars 2 2011
Toy Story 3 2010
Up 2009
Wall E 2008
Ratatouille 2007
Cars 2006
Incredibles, The 2004
Finding Nemo 2003
Monsters, Inc 2001
Toy Story 2 1999
Bugs Life, A 1998
Toy Story 1995


My list:

Not Seen: The Good Dinosaur

16. Cars 2
15. Brave
14. A Bug's Life
13. Monsters University
12. Wall - E
11. Finding Dory
10. Inside Out

...at this point, the ranking becomes pretty tough for me

9. Monsters Inc.
8. Cars
7 Finding Nemo
6 The Incredibles
5 Up
4 Toy Story
3 Ratatouille
2 Toy Story 2
1 Toy Story 3 (a film I still think should have won Best Picture)
Posted by Algernon Moncrieff | Mon Oct 17, 2016, 02:02 PM (11 replies)

How will the Merrick Garland nomination end?

What happens to Merrick Garland’s nomination in December?

Let’s assume Merrick Garland doesn’t get confirmed in the lame-duck. Does his nomination stay active when the Congress ends? No — if Obama hasn’t withdrawn it, it gets sent back to the White House. Don’t forget that Obama is officially president until Jan. 20, after a new Congress will have convened. It’s unlikely, however, that Obama would overrule Clinton’s preference if she’s elected president. But might Obama resubmit Garland’s nomination if Donald Trump wins the White House? That’s an open question.

When exactly will Garland’s nomination die?
We’re not sure yet. It happens when the Senate adjourns sine die to mark the session’s end. That could be the day the senators leave in December (maybe Dec. 9, when the continuing resolution runs out, or Dec. 16, leadership’s target date). Or it could be later. It just has to happen before noon on Jan. 3, when the new Congress convenes.

What are Obama’s options once the nomination is returned?
He has several options. Once Congress comes back in, he can renominate Garland or nominate somebody else — there’s no rule forcing him to pick Garland again in January. Obama can also do nothing.
Posted by Algernon Moncrieff | Sun Oct 16, 2016, 09:49 PM (20 replies)

Voting Is Your Right As A Citizen

Posted by Algernon Moncrieff | Sun Oct 16, 2016, 02:42 PM (3 replies)

Would you support a Constitutional Amendment to change House terms from 2 years to 4 years?

Would you support changing the terms of House members from 2 years to 4 years?

The argument for 4-year house terms is that House members essentially are in constant campaign mode. Since they are always having to fundraise, and work for a re-election that is right around the corner, it makes them more susceptible to outside interest groups with deep pockets.

The argument against 4-year house terms is that the 2-year election cycle makes House members more responsive to the public mood, and more responsive to constituent needs.
Posted by Algernon Moncrieff | Mon Oct 10, 2016, 12:07 PM (20 replies)
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