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NuclearDem's Journal
NuclearDem's Journal
March 26, 2016

Well, I'm not one to be a sore loser--congratulations, Sanders supporters

You won Alaska, are looking exceedingly strong in Washington, and will probably do very well in Hawaii as well.

So, no snark, no sarcasm: congratulations. You earned these wins.

We'll see you back east.

March 25, 2016

Pictured below: Political Revolution

Not pictured: Sitting at home on Reddit, sending in $27 through Paypal, and then not being bothered to show up and vote. For this, see: Revolution (American brand name).
March 25, 2016

I voted for Clinton in my primary. Does my vote count?

I requested an absentee ballot, filled it out as soon as it arrived, and mailed it back. I marked the box for Hillary Clinton.

Does my vote count? Is my vote irrelevant because it's not at a caucus? Was my vote fraudulent?

Help me out here, folks. What do I need to do to make sure my vote isn't in danger of being thrown out in the name of fighting voter suppression?

March 23, 2016

Sorry, Bernie supporters. Your candidate is not ‘currently winning the Democratic primary race’

Denial is powerful. The extent to which the human mind can conjure up scenarios besides the one we don't want to see is impressive, the result of some weird psychological glitch that probably evolved as a way of allowing us to keep our sanity. I don't know; I'm not an evolutionary psychologist.

What I am is a dude who spends a lot of time looking at poll numbers, and particularly poll numbers related to the 2016 nomination contests. I am the author of various articles assessing the chances of Sen. Bernie Sanders in the Democratic iteration thereof; those articles come to the conclusion that Hillary Clinton is very, very likely to be the party's nominee. It's a simple function of math. Sanders needs to win a lot of states with a lot of delegates by a lot of points -- something that he's so far shown no ability to do. He needs to win about three-quarters of the remaining delegates. Unless deusemerges from the machina, he will not.

But that's me looking at things objectively. I suspect that Seth Abramson -- a University of New Hampshire English professor and author of "Bernie Sanders Is Currently Winning the Democratic Primary Race, and I’ll Prove It to You" -- is not considering the race from the same space.

Abramson's "proof" consists of the following argument. Actually, Bernie Sanders has more support from Democrats. It's just that no one knows who he is. So Hillary Clinton banks a lot of early votes. But then they hear about Sanders and prefer him, and that's why voting on Election Day favors Sanders. So, really, Sanders is preferred.

The only problem with this is all of the parts.

March 23, 2016

New York, Pennsylvania, and Maryland are closed primaries.

To participate in the Democratic primaries in those states you have to be registered as a Democrat by:

March 25 (this Friday) - New York
March 28 (next Monday) - Pennsylvania
April 5 (two Tuesdays from now) - Maryland

If you or someone you know plans to vote in those contests and hasn't registered as a Democrat by the respective date, don't be surprised if you're turned away.

Again, closed primary.

Closed primary.

March 23, 2016

Anyone remember the Clinton supporters up in arms about Michigan?

Remember how after one of the biggest upsets in primary history, where nearly all the polls were wrong, how Clinton supporters hysterically alleged election fraud?

Yeah, I don't either.

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Member since: Thu Nov 4, 2010, 09:31 AM
Number of posts: 16,184

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