Nuclear Unicorn
Nuclear Unicorn's JournalThe Iowa caucuses, both D and R, were canaries in the Establishment coal mine
Sanders, Cruz and Trump are running as anti-Establishment candidates, albeit from their respective sides of the political spectrum. None of them should have, would have, done as well as they did in prior elections. If the Establishment had its way it would have been Hillary by at least 20 percentage points and Bush or, as a fallback position, Rubio.
Of the two parties the GOPers were the real winners. First, their anti-Establishment candidates may be within 5-percentage points of each other but the real story is the Establishment guy only garnered 23 percentage points to the antis combined 53 percentage points. That greater than 2:1 anti-Establishment margin will continue to hold once the field narrows into a nominee.
Oh, and by the way, the Rs were able to muster a record turn-out meaning they're motivated.
Meanwhile, across the aisle the guy who shouldn't have been within 20 percentage points only lost by 6 coin tosses. Turn-out was good and by "good" I mean "typical." If the usual number of people are willing to caucus and half the caucus goers are willing to go anti-Establishment where are the margin of Ds that correspond to the additional turn-out of Rs?
Sitting home demoralized, I would imagine.
They want their own anti-Establishment candidate but they're being told it's too unrealistic. Such a candidate could never get anything past the GOP Congress which is just another way of saying Congress has been conceded to the GOP and the Establishment plans on working with them. Oh yeah, and remember when we rallied you to cheer for single-payer? Well, you're all idiots now -- probably racists, too.
Last night wasn't a win for the future nominee, it was the opening of a schism so finely split down the center that the only way to settle it was 6 out of 6 coin tosses. Meanwhile, the enemy is mustering record numbers to coalesce around ideals over personalities; a far stronger motivating force.
The electorate is angry and the only argument the Establishment candidates can make is they're the safe, predictable choice against their respective opposition even if they have to burn down their own previous platforms to do it.
Standard political playbook triangulations are not going to carry this election. If anything that will only exacerbate the anti-Establishment mood. But the Establishment will not change course because it is invested in one thing and one thing only: It's own power. It's only attraction is for those who think they will find safety within its walls.
This will not end well even if it ends in victory.
To Martin O'Malley supporters --
I'm genuinely sorry for your candidate. He wasn't my candidate but I've always seen you guys as decent and sincere folks.
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