There's lots of speculation today about Bachmann's unexpected announcement that she won't run again. It came as no surprise to me, and I've been following her antics for some time.
First, it's very likely that she would have lost in 2014, if she ran. Her opponent, Jim Graves, who she beat only by 1% in 2012, would be very likely to be the winner in 2014. Polling, although very early, shows a trend toward Graves. Add to that the current campaign finance investigation, and the news that's likely to come from that would have made her defeat even more certain.
A while back, I posted that she would probably not run in 2014, since she'd be facing a loss that would interfere with her future plans. So now what happens?
She could, but will not, run against Al Franken in 2014 for the Senate. She would lose badly in that race, and she knows it. Her congressional wins were based on the demographics in her district. That district's boundaries were changed after the 2010 census. While it's still a conservative district, she lost some areas in her former district. Bottom line: She is not liked statewide, and would have no chance of winning the Senate race.
She could run for Governor of Minnesota, but that's another statewide race, and I don't see a win for her there.
She could, and may, launch a public speaking career. I doubt it will be a long-lived one, since she really isn't that articulate, and makes serious gaffes in almost all of her public appearances. If she speaks regularly, she will embarrass herself and her followers.
She could, and may, take up some sort of role at Fox News. Fox News, however, is overloaded with failed Republican politicians, and may not be in the mood for such a character as Bachmann. She does poorly on camera and has the potential to be a loose, embarrassing cannon, even for Fox.
My Prediction: Michelle Bachmann will resign from her House seat within three months, and move on in some other direction. I expect that she will attempt to do the public speaking thing, attempting to become a firebrand for the Tea Party wackos. I further predict that she will disappear from view fairly quickly, going the way of Sarah Palin.
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