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Statistical's Journal
Statistical's Journal
October 5, 2020

Even Donald Jr thinks his dad is acting insane. Don't let anyone gaslight you this isn't fine.

When a brain dead sociopath like Jr knows something is wrong something is very very wrong.

According to sources, Don Jr. has told friends that he tried lobbying Ivanka Trump, Eric Trump, and Jared Kushner to convince the president that he needs to stop acting unstable. “Don Jr. has said he wants to stage an intervention, but Jared and Ivanka keep telling Trump how great he’s doing,” a source said. Don Jr. is said to be reluctant to confront his father alone. “Don said, ‘I’m not going to be the only one to tell him he’s acting crazy,’” the source added.

October 5, 2020

So the polls are starting to move. WOOT WOOT

Usually I don't care much about day to day polls (up one, down two) because the margin of error means a lot of that is just sampling noise. Especially if one poll goes up 1 and another one goes down 2 on the same day. You probably aren't looking at anything real. Even when there is zero actual change in preference among voters the polls will move around a bit day to day.

However since the debate the polls have been improving pretty consistently for Biden. I am not sure if it is the debate, Trump getting sick, Trump acting insane while sick, or all of the above but it IS having an effect. Prior to the debate, nationally Biden was up around 6 to 7 pts. There were outliers both high and low but that is where the averages were.

Since the debate the poll have been:
Ipsos - Biden +10
YouGov - Biden +8
U.S.C. Dornsife - Biden +11
NBC News/The Wall Street Journal - Biden +14
The Hill/HarrisX - Biden +7
U.S.C. Dornsife - Biden +11 (a second one)

Since most of the aggregate sites keep polls from the past couple weeks the averages are around +8 but that is up from around +6 prior to the debate. The averages are slowly inching up as older polls fall off. The other good news is in most averages Biden is now over the magic 50% mark. It also is not just Biden picking up "undecideds" either, Trump has pretty consistently lost around 2 points in most polls (outliers aside).

Yeah yeah all the standard disclaimers apply: only election day matters, GOTV, don't take your eye off the prize, etc, etc. It is still good news.

October 4, 2020

Come on Pence grow a pair and invoke the 25th. You can be President if only for a bit.

Remember God said you were going to be President maybe this is what he meant.

October 4, 2020

Trump's infection is having an impact on the perception of the virus

In the wake of Trump's diagnosis, the survey also found an increasing number of Americans concerned that they, or someone they know, will be infected with the virus. Eighty-one percent are either very or somewhat concerned about contracting COVID-19, compared to 72% two weeks ago. The percentage of "very concerned" respondents rose 8 percentage points, from 29% to 37%.

The overall jump can be almost entirely attributed to Republicans, whose net concern increased 18 points (52% to 70%), and independents, whose concern increased 13 points (69% to 82%). Democrats held steady at 86%.

That is encouraging. It shows reality can occasionally reach Republicans at least some of them.

In two separate questions, an identical 72% said that Trump did not take the "risk of contracting the virus seriously enough," nor "the appropriate precautions when it came to his personal health." The poll was conducted by Ipsos in partnership with ABC News using Ipsos' Knowledge Panel on Friday and Saturday, following Trump's positive test early Friday morning.

October 2, 2020

Found COVID false negative testing information (relates to Biden test results)

"Over the 4 days of infection before the typical time of symptom onset (day 5), the probability of a false-negative result in an infected person decreases from 100% (95% CI, 100% to 100%) on day 1 to 67% (CI, 27% to 94%) on day 4. On the day of symptom onset, the median false-negative rate was 38% (CI, 18% to 65%). This decreased to 20% (CI, 12% to 30%) on day 8 (3 days after symptom onset) then began to increase again, from 21% (CI, 13% to 31%) on day 9 to 66% (CI, 54% to 77%) on day 21."

"Variation in False-Negative Rate of Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction–Based SARS-CoV-2 Tests by Time Since Exposure"

If Biden was exposed on Tuesday then day 4 would be Saturday evening but he gets tested in the morning so say Sunday morning. The expected median false negative rates would be 67% on Sunday, 38% on Monday, and falling to 20% by Thursday.

So if Biden doesn't develop symptoms or test positive by Monday he likely (80%+) doesn't have the disease. Either he never got infected or his body killed off any small viral load before it could replicate. By next Wednesday it is almost guaranteed (>99%) he doesn't have the disease if still symptom free with all negative tests.
October 2, 2020

For those still saying it might be Trump faking it ... strategic command put the looking glass

in the air.

The US strategic command put E-6B nuclear command posts in the air off both the east and west coasts. The E-6B is a mobile backup nuclear command post which can relay nuclear orders and nicknamed "looking glass".

They were put in the air as a precaution so that no nuclear adversary would consider using a possible future incapacitation of the President to launch a surprise nuclear decapitation strike hoping that the US would be unable to respond before being destroyed.

Even if the event an adversary was successful the E-6B could issue a countervalue secondary strike using Ohio class subs at sea. "Countervalue" being the euphemism for ignoring military assets and destroying civilians, major cities, and industrial centers on an unimaginable scale as a punitive response. In other words a civilization ender. The chess level thinking is our adversaries knowing this capability would make launching a surprise strike on the US pointless. If they "win" they "lose".

Strategic command isn't playing along with nuclear forces to bolster some Trump fake.


October 1, 2020

I think this illustrates why it isn't optional, the filibuster absolutely must go.

Senate Democrats' largely symbolic bid to cut off the Trump administration's support for a Supreme Court challenge to Obamacare failed as expected Thursday, but several Republicans facing tough reelections crossed party lines to back the measure.

Sens. Martha McSally of Arizona, Susan Collins of Maine, Cory Gardner of Colorado, Joni Ernst of Iowa and Dan Sullivan of Alaska, who are trying to reassure voters about their defense of insurance protections for preexisting conditions, backed the Democrats' measure. Another Republican, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, who opposed Obamacare repeal efforts three years ago, also supported the bill.

But the bill fell 51-43, short of the 60 votes needed to advance.


Even with 5 Republicans breaking ranks (because they are scared shitless) it is still 9 votes short of the cloture vote. This was largely symbolic and about protecting existing ACA not any expansion, not a public option, not any other more progressive legislation. Any more progressive will have zero support from the other side and may result in a few Democratic defections.

If the Democrats take the Senate but the cloture vote rule (filibuster) remains intact then zero absolutely zero progressive legislation will pass the Senate. There just aren't 60 Senators who will vote in favor of progressive legislation.
October 1, 2020

A day after refusing to condemn white supremacists, Trump aims a xenophobic attack at Ilhan Omar.

A day after he refused to condemn white supremacists at the first presidential debate, President Trump unleashed a xenophobic attack on Representative Ilhan Omar at a rally in Minnesota Wednesday night, accusing her of telling “us” — meaning his overwhelmingly white audience — “how to run our country.”


I really wish the GOP congressmen and Fox commentators could stop pretending Trump's refusal to condemn white supremacists is an accident. Stop being "confused". Everyone knows exactly why he won't do it.
September 30, 2020

America's CEOs say Trump failed on coronavirus -- and they're backing Biden

Source: CNN

New York (CNN Business)President Donald Trump says he deserves an "A+" for his handling of the pandemic. Corporate America says he deserves a failing grade.

Fifty-five percent of CEOs and other business leaders give Trump an "F" for his administration's response to the coronavirus pandemic, according to a poll conducted by the Yale School of Management. Another 12% say Trump deserves a "D."
Just 6% of the attendees at Yale's Chief Executive Leadership Institute CEO Caucus award Trump an "A" for his handling of Covid-19.

Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/29/business/ceos-endorse-joe-biden/index.html

Trump is a failure at everything. People in power can't even pretend his isn't a failure anymore.

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