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Statistical's Journal
Statistical's Journal
October 21, 2020

538 has an interactive model now. Some interesting PA & FL stats


So 538 has this interactive model where you can alter the prediction on a single state and see how it affects the calculations

PA & FL I think will be critical to the election if it is close so I ran all four combinations on how those two states and only those two states being called would change the race. Yes in reality PA will likely to not be called for days maybe weeks after the polls close but as an academic experiment imagine the polls closed and immediately PA and FL and no other states were called how would that change the race.

Biden wins PA & FL = > 99% Biden win
Biden wins PA, Trump wins FL = 86% Biden win
Biden wins FL, Trump wins PA = 84% Biden win
Trump wins PA & FL = 7% Biden win

Biden has multiple paths to victory so winning either PA or FL doesn't make much of a difference even though FL is worth 9 more EV. Trump on the other hand really needs both or he is still a longshot to win.

Looking at just Florida, FL is so critical to Trump that if Biden takes FL and no other states are called the model predicts a >99% chance of Biden win in the EC. Trump taking FL isn't fatal but it drops the chance of a Biden to 59%. Florida could be called relatively early among battleground states so while it might not decide the race it may decide how quickly we know the winner of the race.

Important disclaimer to prevent misinterpreting. The above is based on a hypothetical where ONLY those two states are called. In reality some super safe states on both sides are likely to be called for both candidates. That moderates the odds a bit.
Below is a link to a map where I called all the likely states on both sides and gave Trump PA & FL. It is bad for Biden 24% chance of winning but it isn't 7% bad like the two state analysis above
October 17, 2020

I gave to six senate campaigns who could flip blue tonight. Here is the list if anyone is interest.

Looked for close races that could use the cash. Figured it could save someone some time.

Raphael Warnock (GA) +6 (runoff)
Theresa Greenfield (IA) +4
Sara Gideon (ME) +4
Jon Ossoff (GA) -1
Steve Bullock (MT) -3
Al Gross (AK) -5

Another one from Awsi Dooger is:
Barbara Bollier (KS) -2

I didn't include Kelly because he is up solidly, McGrath because I don't believe she can win, or Harrison because he has a mountain of cash and if he wins or loses likely isn't going to come down to more money.

Warnock while leading by six is in a jungle primary. If he doesn't get 50% (unlikely) then he will be in a runoff with the Republican leader and he will very much not be up six there. I figured donate to his campaign now and they can use it as needed.

On edit: ME not MN for Gideon thanks.

October 15, 2020

So damn true

Imagine if every progressive had voted for the person on the left who could actually beat Trump in 2016.

In the general election that was one of the following candidates:
Hillary Clinton
< end of list >

We could be talking about Clinton's third supreme court nominee and her re-election fight.
October 13, 2020

Texas counties can offer only one drop-off ballot location: Federal appeals court

Source: Raw Story

Texas counties may collect mail-in ballots at only one location, a federal appeals court ruled late Monday, once again upholding an order from Gov. Greg Abbott that restricts voting options.

Read more: https://www.rawstory.com/2020/10/texas-counties-can-offer-only-one-drop-off-ballot-location-federal-appeals-court-rules-upholding-gov-greg-abbotts-order/

After the stay sadly I expected nothing else but still upsetting the level of disenfranchisement.
October 13, 2020

Conservatives beg Trump to shut up during SCOTUS hearings: 'Any time he's not on the front

Conservatives beg Trump to shut up during SCOTUS hearings: ‘Any time he’s not on the front page is helpful’

“Any time he is not on the front page, at this point, is helpful,” veteran GOP strategist Alex Conant tells The Daily Beast. “[He] needs this election to be about something other than his own tweets and handling of COVID. Every time he steps on to the White House porch, the story is about him ignoring what his doctor has told him.”

In contrast to nervous Republicans, Biden campaign spokesman Andrew Bates told The Daily Beast that he hopes the president keeps holding rallies.

“With each appearance Donald Trump is providing an avalanche of reminders for why his presidency has been a train wreck for families: he has ramped up attacks on science, he keeps proudly attempting to tear the American people apart for perceived political gain, and he still has no intention of taking the pandemic seriously — even after 8 devastating months and contracting the virus himself,” he said.


Trump will be Trump. At least in this instance it is helping us.
October 12, 2020

A Senate PSA. If DC and PR were already states ...

Garland likely would have been confirmed in 2016 and at a minimum Dumpy would have been forced to pick a moderate instead of Justice Handmaid.

We need to open DC and PR to statehood.

October 9, 2020

Nate (538) puts Trump's chances of winning at just 5% if the election were held today

sarah: Nate, Trump is losing a little ground each day in our forecast if his standing in the polls doesn’t improve, right? Tell us more about that, and what that means for Trump’s ability to close the gap between him and Biden at this point.

natesilver: Trump’s chances are at 15 percent in our forecast now, but my guess is that he’d be at something like 5 percent if the election were held today.

He’d need a VERY large polling error to win if Biden is up 10 points nationally and 7 points or so in the tipping-point states. So most of his comeback chances still stem from being able to turn the race around somehow, and debates are one way to do that … maybe the best way at this stage.

In the podcast on if Trump needs the debates.


Yes yes only election day counts, GOTV, stay focused. I just thought it is interesting to note that Trump's 15% is based on the value of the time left in the race in which Trump could turn things around. His chances as they stand right now if he doesn't improve are even worse.
October 9, 2020

Where do people get the idea that the House can invoke the 25th?

Only Pence can. Well technically Pence and a majority of the cabinet or Pence and a majority of a body designated by Congress in legislation. The singular key person however is Pence.

Nobody else on the planet other than Pence can invoke the 25th (aside from Dumpy doing it voluntarily). If everyone in Washington DC from both parties except Dumpy and Pence was in favor of the 25th then it doesn't happen. I mean if everyone was in favor they could just impeach Trump instead but they still couldn't invoke the 25th without Pence.

People need to stop jumping for extreme conclusions

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, alarmed by President Donald Trump's erratic behavior in recent days, is putting her weight behind a bill to give Congress a role in determining whether the President of the United States must be forced out of office because he's incapable of doing his job.

The move, in response to Trump's conduct in the days after testing positive for the coronavirus, would establish a process to effectively give Congress a say in removing a president from office under the 25th Amendment of the Constitution, which allows for a president to be removed from office if a majority of Cabinet members and the vice president consider him unable to carry out his duties. Section four of the 25th Amendment also says that if a majority of a body established by law, along with the vice president, declare in writing that if the president is disabled and unable to do his job, the vice president immediately becomes the acting president.

The bill, Democrats say, will create that body to help determine the fitness of the president. The proposal, which will be introduced Friday by Pelosi and Democratic Rep. Jamie Raskin, will create a body designed to "help ensure effective and uninterrupted leadership in the highest office in the Executive Branch of government," according to Pelosi's office.

The measure stands virtually no chance of becoming law. But it is designed to heighten the attention on Trump's condition after his doctors have provided limited information about his recovery from coronavirus.


Pelosi is keeping Trump's unsuitability for the office in the headlines by creating a headline that the media will report on. She is doing what she can to keep the pressure on but she can't force the 25th.
October 8, 2020

So one thing is very obvious ...

... all future debates must have a mute button on the mics.

October 7, 2020

If you need something to smile about ... Freepers are losing their shit over the Rasmussen reports.

They consider all other polls to be fake but usually tout Rasmussen as "telling the truth" except now it shows Biden up 12. A tiny minority is calling it for what it is; bad news and can't be overcome by electoral college. The rests are split between either it is fake or it doesn't matter that Biden could win by 20 pts and Dumpy will still win the electoral college.

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