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Statistical's Journal
Statistical's Journal
November 4, 2020

So FL is dead. Man the polls were way off there.

The only good news is FL has a large cuban hispanic population so doesn't really reflect on what will happen in the rest of the country.

Florida just sucks.

November 3, 2020

From the CNN exit polls. Most voter decided a long time ago (no surprise here).

With a tidal wave of early and absentee voters this year, very few made up their minds in the final days of the contest: Just 4% say they made up their minds in the final week of the campaign, and almost three-quarters said they made up their minds before September.


The low undecideds is what gave the polls such consistency in 2020 (and in contrast to how volatile they were in 2016). When you are on top you want consistent polls. When you are the underdog you are hoping for lots of undecideds to maybe you turn things around.
November 3, 2020

If you need a battle song for this election eve (care of Mrs. Statistical).

May tomorrow be the dawn of a blue revolution.
November 3, 2020

So which state do you think will have the closest % margin (regardless of who wins)?

In 2016 it was NH, MI, WI, and PA (all under 1% margin).

Right now the prediction market is calling the top 3 as PA, OH, and FL although tied with only 13% chance each (at the time of this post). The fact that there is no clear frontrunner and nobody over 13% is another way of saying nobody knows for sure.


What are your thoughts?

October 28, 2020

An election night PSA: Virginia is weird when it comes to reporting election results

This is so people don't freak out. When the polls close in VA the early counts is going to show stronger support for Trump than he actually has. That is because initial reporting at 7:30 EST may not include mail in ballots in all precincts. Precincts are required to include all mail in ballots that have been processed in the 11:00 EST report.

So results will look "bad" initially and for the first couple hours in VA. Either it will show Trump ahead or Biden ahead by less than expected. Things should look more realistic after 11 PM EST.

I bring this up because VA polls close relatively early and it starts reporting relatively early so it may be one of the first few states showing results election evening. Uninformed people may be freaking out about how "Biden is barely doing better than Clinton" and what it means nationally. Just remember that prior to 11 PM the returns don't include all processed mail in ballots yet.

October 26, 2020

If you haven't already mailed in your ballot then DON'T.

Please nobody depend on the post election day extensions. They are almost certainly going to be challenged all the way to the Supreme Court. In some states these changes were done administratively not by legislation and in an election year. Yes the padenmic requires changes but we know how hyperpartisan the courts are. There is a reasonable chance at least in some states those ballots received after election day will be nullified.

So if you have a mail in ballot (or because of mail fuckery are still waiting) check your state and see if you can drop it off in instead or if you can vote early in person. Procedures vary on voting in person if you are already registered to receive a mail in ballot, so check with your state. In VA for example you must take the mail in ballot (still in its inner sealed envelope) to the poll. They will exchange it one for one. If you don't have it then you are reduced to voting with a provisional ballot.

Most people on DU likely have already voted but share the same message with friends and family.
October 26, 2020

Anyone from PA know what is going on with mail in voting in Bucks County, PA?

First I would say I love this electproject. Great insights.


If you go here and rank the counties by the ballots requested there are 7 counties with more than 100,000 ballots requested in PA. Of those seven four have over 50% return rates and two others are in the mid 30s. All that is amazing. Way to get out the early vote PA. The exception is Bucks county with a less than 20% return rate.

Anyone know why?

October 23, 2020

Mitch has a serious medical conditions. Lets not make light of it.

It is well known that when you undergo a soul extraction for political expediency eventually the body breaks down and starts to decompose.

Tots and pears people. Tots and pears.

October 22, 2020

Could we be getting to a bandwagon tipping point?

Often people will say ignore the polls and act like you are 10 points down. Largely that is nonsense. When a candidate is 10 pts down a lot of people will not contribute, not volunteer, and not even get off the couch and vote. A candidate being 10 pts down in the polls can lead to desertion and apathy meaning on election day the candidate loses by more than 10 pts and in the case of a Presidential race that leads to down ticket losses for his party.

It is why disciplined politicians even if they expect a loss try to at least keep the race close. Dumpy however have zero discipline and zero concern for anyone but himself. He doesn't really care if a bigger loss for him routs the GOP. Could we be seeing that playing out in 2020. Could Trump's disastrous inability to even make it a close loss affect down ticket races?

I don't know just putting it out there but it will be interesting to see on election night. Split tickets does happen but sometimes in protest people will just vote down the ticket. If they are motivated enough to go to the polls to elect Biden over Dumpy then they may be motivated to vote straight blue even if they are an Independent or Republican. Not everyone of course but elections are won or lost on the margin. An extra 2% in SC for example could put Harrison over the top.

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