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Member since: Sun Sep 7, 2008, 05:13 PM
Number of posts: 19,264

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An election night PSA: Virginia is weird when it comes to reporting election results

This is so people don't freak out. When the polls close in VA the early counts is going to show stronger support for Trump than he actually has. That is because initial reporting at 7:30 EST may not include mail in ballots in all precincts. Precincts are required to include all mail in ballots that have been processed in the 11:00 EST report.

So results will look "bad" initially and for the first couple hours in VA. Either it will show Trump ahead or Biden ahead by less than expected. Things should look more realistic after 11 PM EST.

I bring this up because VA polls close relatively early and it starts reporting relatively early so it may be one of the first few states showing results election evening. Uninformed people may be freaking out about how "Biden is barely doing better than Clinton" and what it means nationally. Just remember that prior to 11 PM the returns don't include all processed mail in ballots yet.

If you haven't already mailed in your ballot then DON'T.

Please nobody depend on the post election day extensions. They are almost certainly going to be challenged all the way to the Supreme Court. In some states these changes were done administratively not by legislation and in an election year. Yes the padenmic requires changes but we know how hyperpartisan the courts are. There is a reasonable chance at least in some states those ballots received after election day will be nullified.

So if you have a mail in ballot (or because of mail fuckery are still waiting) check your state and see if you can drop it off in instead or if you can vote early in person. Procedures vary on voting in person if you are already registered to receive a mail in ballot, so check with your state. In VA for example you must take the mail in ballot (still in its inner sealed envelope) to the poll. They will exchange it one for one. If you don't have it then you are reduced to voting with a provisional ballot.

Most people on DU likely have already voted but share the same message with friends and family.

Anyone from PA know what is going on with mail in voting in Bucks County, PA?

First I would say I love this electproject. Great insights.


If you go here and rank the counties by the ballots requested there are 7 counties with more than 100,000 ballots requested in PA. Of those seven four have over 50% return rates and two others are in the mid 30s. All that is amazing. Way to get out the early vote PA. The exception is Bucks county with a less than 20% return rate.

Anyone know why?

Mitch has a serious medical conditions. Lets not make light of it.

It is well known that when you undergo a soul extraction for political expediency eventually the body breaks down and starts to decompose.

Tots and pears people. Tots and pears.

Could we be getting to a bandwagon tipping point?

Often people will say ignore the polls and act like you are 10 points down. Largely that is nonsense. When a candidate is 10 pts down a lot of people will not contribute, not volunteer, and not even get off the couch and vote. A candidate being 10 pts down in the polls can lead to desertion and apathy meaning on election day the candidate loses by more than 10 pts and in the case of a Presidential race that leads to down ticket losses for his party.

It is why disciplined politicians even if they expect a loss try to at least keep the race close. Dumpy however have zero discipline and zero concern for anyone but himself. He doesn't really care if a bigger loss for him routs the GOP. Could we be seeing that playing out in 2020. Could Trump's disastrous inability to even make it a close loss affect down ticket races?

I don't know just putting it out there but it will be interesting to see on election night. Split tickets does happen but sometimes in protest people will just vote down the ticket. If they are motivated enough to go to the polls to elect Biden over Dumpy then they may be motivated to vote straight blue even if they are an Independent or Republican. Not everyone of course but elections are won or lost on the margin. An extra 2% in SC for example could put Harrison over the top.

538 has an interactive model now. Some interesting PA & FL stats


So 538 has this interactive model where you can alter the prediction on a single state and see how it affects the calculations

PA & FL I think will be critical to the election if it is close so I ran all four combinations on how those two states and only those two states being called would change the race. Yes in reality PA will likely to not be called for days maybe weeks after the polls close but as an academic experiment imagine the polls closed and immediately PA and FL and no other states were called how would that change the race.

Biden wins PA & FL = > 99% Biden win
Biden wins PA, Trump wins FL = 86% Biden win
Biden wins FL, Trump wins PA = 84% Biden win
Trump wins PA & FL = 7% Biden win

Biden has multiple paths to victory so winning either PA or FL doesn't make much of a difference even though FL is worth 9 more EV. Trump on the other hand really needs both or he is still a longshot to win.

Looking at just Florida, FL is so critical to Trump that if Biden takes FL and no other states are called the model predicts a >99% chance of Biden win in the EC. Trump taking FL isn't fatal but it drops the chance of a Biden to 59%. Florida could be called relatively early among battleground states so while it might not decide the race it may decide how quickly we know the winner of the race.

Important disclaimer to prevent misinterpreting. The above is based on a hypothetical where ONLY those two states are called. In reality some super safe states on both sides are likely to be called for both candidates. That moderates the odds a bit.
Below is a link to a map where I called all the likely states on both sides and gave Trump PA & FL. It is bad for Biden 24% chance of winning but it isn't 7% bad like the two state analysis above

I gave to six senate campaigns who could flip blue tonight. Here is the list if anyone is interest.

Looked for close races that could use the cash. Figured it could save someone some time.

Raphael Warnock (GA) +6 (runoff)
Theresa Greenfield (IA) +4
Sara Gideon (ME) +4
Jon Ossoff (GA) -1
Steve Bullock (MT) -3
Al Gross (AK) -5

Another one from Awsi Dooger is:
Barbara Bollier (KS) -2

I didn't include Kelly because he is up solidly, McGrath because I don't believe she can win, or Harrison because he has a mountain of cash and if he wins or loses likely isn't going to come down to more money.

Warnock while leading by six is in a jungle primary. If he doesn't get 50% (unlikely) then he will be in a runoff with the Republican leader and he will very much not be up six there. I figured donate to his campaign now and they can use it as needed.

On edit: ME not MN for Gideon thanks.

So damn true

Imagine if every progressive had voted for the person on the left who could actually beat Trump in 2016.

In the general election that was one of the following candidates:
Hillary Clinton
< end of list >

We could be talking about Clinton's third supreme court nominee and her re-election fight.

Texas counties can offer only one drop-off ballot location: Federal appeals court

Source: Raw Story

Texas counties may collect mail-in ballots at only one location, a federal appeals court ruled late Monday, once again upholding an order from Gov. Greg Abbott that restricts voting options.

Read more: https://www.rawstory.com/2020/10/texas-counties-can-offer-only-one-drop-off-ballot-location-federal-appeals-court-rules-upholding-gov-greg-abbotts-order/

After the stay sadly I expected nothing else but still upsetting the level of disenfranchisement.

Conservatives beg Trump to shut up during SCOTUS hearings: 'Any time he's not on the front

Conservatives beg Trump to shut up during SCOTUS hearings: ‘Any time he’s not on the front page is helpful’

“Any time he is not on the front page, at this point, is helpful,” veteran GOP strategist Alex Conant tells The Daily Beast. “[He] needs this election to be about something other than his own tweets and handling of COVID. Every time he steps on to the White House porch, the story is about him ignoring what his doctor has told him.”

In contrast to nervous Republicans, Biden campaign spokesman Andrew Bates told The Daily Beast that he hopes the president keeps holding rallies.

“With each appearance Donald Trump is providing an avalanche of reminders for why his presidency has been a train wreck for families: he has ramped up attacks on science, he keeps proudly attempting to tear the American people apart for perceived political gain, and he still has no intention of taking the pandemic seriously — even after 8 devastating months and contracting the virus himself,” he said.


Trump will be Trump. At least in this instance it is helping us.
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