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Statistical's Journal
Statistical's Journal
November 3, 2020

From the CNN exit polls. Most voter decided a long time ago (no surprise here).

With a tidal wave of early and absentee voters this year, very few made up their minds in the final days of the contest: Just 4% say they made up their minds in the final week of the campaign, and almost three-quarters said they made up their minds before September.


The low undecideds is what gave the polls such consistency in 2020 (and in contrast to how volatile they were in 2016). When you are on top you want consistent polls. When you are the underdog you are hoping for lots of undecideds to maybe you turn things around.
November 3, 2020

If you need a battle song for this election eve (care of Mrs. Statistical).

May tomorrow be the dawn of a blue revolution.
November 3, 2020

So which state do you think will have the closest % margin (regardless of who wins)?

In 2016 it was NH, MI, WI, and PA (all under 1% margin).

Right now the prediction market is calling the top 3 as PA, OH, and FL although tied with only 13% chance each (at the time of this post). The fact that there is no clear frontrunner and nobody over 13% is another way of saying nobody knows for sure.


What are your thoughts?

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